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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    Top Sox ISO 2023-2025 (300+ PAs) On current roster only... .211 Casas .209 Abreu .179 Narvaez .171 Anthony .167 Romy .156 Story .153 Rafaela .143 Yoshida .137 DHam .131 Wong _____________ OBP .396 Anthony .347 Casas .339 Duran .337 Yoshida .329 Romy .326 Abreu .306 Narvaez .304 Wong .284 Rafaela .283 DHam _______________ SLG .471 Duran .465 Abreu .463 Anthony .457 Casas & Romy .425 Yoshida .419 Narvaez .407 Story .401 Rafaela ,378 Wong .359 DHam
  2. moonslav59
    I didn't mean to imply I doubted you made the correct prediction. I chose to stop predicting, since it seemed and still seems impossible after so many broken promises, like "full throttle." On the AAV ledger, I think we saved about $16-18M on Devers but added about $6-7M for Hicks, so we saved about $10M on the tax budget. There is no reason to not go over this year, but I'm still refraining from predicting or expecting us to do it. IMO, we should spend up to the second line, which means about $65-70M, not counting any trades that add or subtract from the total. We basically have 3 major plus slots lost to free agency: Bregman (3B) SP2 (Giolito) and RP (Wilson/Matz) I'm not counting Lowe (1B) because he's actually still under control, although I think we should non tender him. (He may get $10-12M via arb.) To me, this is the peak time to "go for it." 2027 would be the year 3 tax year (reset?) We should sign a player or two to one year deals, so we can reset, but do our best to lock up 2-3 high quality players for 2-3 or more years. That's how long the window is open, if not longer. We can get 1 or 2 via trade(s) but we should be able to sign 2-3 major FAs to high AAVs. Just do it!
  3. moonslav59
    This is not the same type of trade situation as the ones you listed. He has 2 years of control left. I'm not really happy about trading a top 3 offensive player on the team, when I'm also saying we need two big bats, but there is some context needed. Anthony and Duran should not DH, so we have those two plus two GG OF'er who play very difficult Fenway positions- RF and CF. I'm okay with trading one of them and not Duran, but they both are under control for longer, cost less AAV and are way better on defense. We have a great need at SP2, 1B and 3B/2B, so a trade of a valuable OF'er makes sense. I mention trading Duran a lot, for these reasons, and within the context of the 4 we have, Duran is closer to his decline years than the others. Duran may very well have a career year in 2026 or 2027, but I think 2024 was will be his career year. I'm not for trading him for Jeter Downs, Verdugo and Wong. I'm not for trading him for Harrison, Hicks Jose Bello and Tibbs (traded for D May.) I'd trade him for Lodolo. I'd trade him for Joe Ryan. To me, that is evidence I value him highly.
  4. moonslav59
    1. I withdrew my "decline" position on Duran, despite his drop off. 2. Suarez has improved as he's aged, but yes, his age is scary as hell. 3. Duran's best year is likely behind him. Suarez had 49 Hrs many years ago, and he did again this season. 4. I only like Suarez, because I think JH does not like long deals, and his age means he won't get one. 5. I'm thinking Polanco might take a short deal to prove he deserves a 3-4 year deal in 2027. 6. I'm thinking we need two big bats and at today's money, how else do we get JH to pay for it, without 1 or two of them being shorter term deals? If it was up to me, I'd sign Schwarber DH, Polanco 2B and Alonso 1B. Let someone else sign Suarez.
  5. moonslav59
    Yes, it is. We'd have been way over w/o the Devers trade.
  6. moonslav59
    Right about what? Barely going over the line?
  7. moonslav59
    Arenado has lost his offensive skillset. He might be better than Yoshida, due to defense, but I don't want him as our FT 3Bman or 1Bman. I'd rather have Masa DH.
  8. moonslav59
    Suarez averaged 35 HRs per 162 from 2018-2014, so he's been a big power bat for longer than just 2025. 2018-2024: .330 OBP and a real good SLG of .474 (.804 OPS) Last 5 seasons (29-33 age) 34 HRs per 162. 40 HRs per 162 in last 2 years. I like him more because he will be maybe half the cost of Alonso and Schwarber and is a better defender than both.
  9. moonslav59
    I'd do this. We'd have enough money to sign someone else, so I might prefer signing Torres or Polanco over the Donovan trade, or just sign M Kelly or Suarez (3B/DH/1B w Alonso to DH)
  10. moonslav59
    I'd like to believe this is true, but we've been shammed and scammed over and over. Their words ring hollow. We were competitive this year, and chose to dump the Devers salary, then did nothing at the deadline that may have cost some money. I know there was more to that choice than money, but the fact is, we traded away our best hitter during an open window season and did nothing to replace him. Now, we say "They will," but I'm skeptical. What would go a long way in convincing me would be to go very close to the second line. I realize this would be year two of the tax and likely force a reset in 2027, but make on of the major additions a one and done deal. Some are projecting Gleyber Torres will take a 1 year deal. Maybe Merrill Kelly takes a one and done, since he's 37. Maybe Polanco thinks one more big season could get him a multi-year big deal after 2026. (A team 2nd year option with a big buyout might lure Polanco to sign a 1 year deal.) The second line would mean we have about $65M to spend. We could make a trade or two that add a few more $million, but $65M and one key trade could make enormous gains on how we look on paper. $29M Alonso $16M Suarez $15M Polanco $5M Matz Trade Duran for Lodolo and Mayer, Sandlin & Garcia for Ryan. BAM!!!!
  11. moonslav59
    I'm not sure a single posters has advocated no SP'er additions. Has anybody said all we need is a #4? Maybe someone is okay with a solid #3, but I'm not sure I heard those words, either.
  12. moonslav59
    While I agree, I do think we have enough talent & potential/promise among the 8-10 SP'ers who look like 4-6 starters, that we can expect one will jump up and grab the 3 slot in a capable manner. Although Bello and Gio slumped at the end, both pitched like more than capable 3's in 2025. In fact, their numbers would have made them #2's on half the teams. I'd be happy with a 1/2 slot addition and then letting the depth fight it out for the 3-5 slots. Another plus might be that even if none pitch like a solid #3, if our 3-4-5-6 starters all pitch like solid #4s, that could be enough, if our 1-2's pitch like 1-2's.
  13. moonslav59
    I'm 200% sure Mayer is handed a FT position before ST'ing. It could be 3B, 2B or a long shot SS, if Cora wakes up and moves Story to 2B. It should be: 1B: ______ (Alonso, Suarez, then maybe Hoskins/Bell) 2B: Story SS: Mayer 3B: _____ (Bregman, Suarez) It might be... 1B: Hoskins 2B: Polanco or Mayer SS: Story 3B: Mayer or Bregman (Suarez?)
  14. moonslav59
    He's already been a pretty big plus, even if he never pitches an inning in 2026. He was one of our best SP'ers in '24 and did well in his only start in '25.
  15. moonslav59
    Undefeated BYU was exposed, today. I'm glad teams like them get eliminated from consideration. Now, I'm not so sure teams like #13 Utah (7-2) Virginia (8-1) Louisville (7-1) GA Tech (8-1) or Vandy (7-2) deserve it either, but I'd rather see the debate about who is in about teams like them than much better teams left out in the past. In early games, OSU, GA & Ole Miss are taking care of business. IN pulled their game out, late.
  16. moonslav59
    That's what I expect, too. The added bonus is that he's not coming off an injury. This will thrill JH just enough to say yes on a 2 year deal. (Maybe add a 3rd year option with buyout to cut down on the tax line AAV calculations.)
  17. moonslav59
    Criswell worked out fine, especially for the money. I don't mind MiLB signings like Fulmer.
  18. moonslav59
    I'm against the idea. At times, I'm only suggesting what I think might happen. Other times, I suggest what I want to happen and try to stay within reasonable budget (JH) considerations.
  19. moonslav59
    Sub Mayer for Bregman or Bichette, and this is still a likely pipedream. (I like it though! Suarez at 1B or 3B would be cheaper and pretty good, too. :Polanco at 2B would add more power and give us a switch hitter over 3 RHBs.)
  20. moonslav59
    We have enough depth and flexible position players to make two significant trades, but I think Brez & Co are stubborn on future assets. Duran seems like the obvious first trade. His 3 years of control still is part of the "future," but with Anthony, Abreu and Rafaela (plus RHBs Campbell & Garcia) it makes sense to deal him. The next trade becomes more complicated. We could offer one of those RHBs Campbell or Garca, but that may be selling low. We have 8-9 pitchers who would be #2s to #5's on most teams, and while 2025 showed the importance of rotation depth, I think we can and should add one SP'er from Crawford, Harrison, Dobbins, Fitts, Perales or for the right return Early or Tolle. Others like Clarke, Valera, Fajardo and the draftees might be selling low, but if one is demanded, I'd consider it. Adding prospects like Arias seems dangerous, as we are thin in infield depth and future outlooks. Gonzales has too much upside compared to his trade value. Romero, DHam and Sogard are not moving anyone's needle. The second trade is a tough one. It would be easier for JH to just allow us to spend to the second line and make one big trade- perhaps bigger than we expect.
  21. moonslav59
    I still dont see all 3, unless there's an injury or Romy is our platoon/FT 1Bman or DH. I know Eaton can play OF, but I'd prefer a better 4th OF'er not names Masa on the 26, and we have several better than Eaton. (THe issue is we don't want Campbell or Garcia on the 26 as a strict short side platoon.)
  22. moonslav59
    I think the Joe Ryan situation will come down to what other teams offer. MIN wants top prospects, and we have some, but all we need to do is outbid the next best offer. They probably prefer Abreu over Duran, and maybe even Campbell and Garcia, so maybe a third team needs to get involved. Two trades could really help our 2026 chances, but I doubt they want to dampen the 2027 and beyond chances for a hear and now solution. My idea is to trade some of the future, but only for players with 3+ years of control 2 like Ryan- with a hopeful extension to follow. Duran + for Paredes? Campbell, Arias and Early for Ryan? Sign Alonso & Polanco/Suarez and Matz and we'd look pretty golden.
  23. moonslav59
    I was talking 40 man roster. No way all 3 are on the 26. There might be just 1.
  24. moonslav59
    He's gotta stay healthy. Period.
  25. moonslav59
    That would break a long streak, but if we trade for one, I agree. (We may sign another Sandoval type or another Criswell type, although I think we originally signed him to a MiLB deal.)
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