moonslav59

He's still just 23 and this year was his 4th year in pro ball. He hit very well at all levels until MLB, His gangbuster start was a bit deceptive, because he was so great in the first 9 games that he was still at .900 after 29 games and .800 after 34 of his 67 game season (that's over half.) Here is the breakdown over 9 game samples: 1.211 first 9 .900 next 9, still great .856 next 9, still doing really well Then, KAPOW! .391 in 4th 9 game sample .428 next .483 next .699 last 12 games (was he starting to snap out of it?)

You know me: I'm always hoping we give 3 good players instead of 2 better ones. Campbell and two from Clarke, Eyanson, Phillips, Sandlin and Mullins. (I'd try to avoid Witherspoon, Valera or Fajardo, but if it meant keeping Early & Tolle, okay.)

2023-2025 ERA 2.71 Bubic (just 163 IP) 3.32 Ragans (322 IP) FIP 2.69 Bubic 2.79 Ragans ERA- 64 Ragans 79 Bubic Here is an eye-opener: 200 MLB pitchers with 130+ IP as a SP'er since 2023 rankings: ERA- 5th Bubic (tied with Yamo & Woodruff) IP is low 28th Ragans (Top 30 can be considered as #1 quality) FIP 4th Ragans (just ahead of Crochet!) 7th Bubic (just below Crochet & Yamo!) ERA: Bubic 6th and Ragans 29th No excitement, now?

It really is quite amazing how "straight" his heaters are.

ATL has always been willing to make deals like this.

I've heard some talk on Ryan and Lopez. Google Pablo Lopez available and it lists the Braves, Dodgers and others. On the "Twins Digest" they suggest he is "more available" than Ryan, and for obviou$ rea$on$. The Joe Ryan available google nets more nuances links- more speculative than hard facts. Their owner even hinted that he's not available, but I have to think they'd say yes to the right offer. Waiting for the deadline might be their thought. One article suggested Arias and Witherspoon. It also mention using players from this group: Romero "blocked" and a 1-2 pitchers from Phillips, Eyanson, Monegro & Clarke, but I think it takes more than 3 from that group. I'm not even sure Arias, Witherspoon and Phillips/Monegro/Eyanson is enough.

Agreed. Maybe the injury-prone label is unfair, but I have to worry, if next year it's the other wrist, or knee, or hammy, or.... I'm pretty certain his hit tool with make him a plus-plus player. Last spring, I felt KC had a better hit tool and Mayer a better D tool. Now, I see Mayer and KC as kinda equal on hitting, but his splits are worrisome.

He was like 38-39 and was negative with his next team, too.

The splits vs LHPs has rightfully gotten a lot of ink. I like his glove. I think his arm is better than the numbers show, as the injuries probably lowered his true arm strength profile. It may take a couple years for his bat to come around, and when the window is now, it might be hard to allow him 1-2 years to find it at the big league level. I share the concern. It comes down to how much is JH willing to spend and Brez willing to trade for top talent. When we look at what positions have the best chance at being filled by in-house solutions, based on projected expectations, we have several slots with promise. With that promise comes questions and concerns. To me, the Mayer-Romy combo offers the most hope, behind Anthony taking over an OF role, which to me is a certainty, this winter and into 2026 and beyond. 1. Anthony replaces Duran or Abreu (Rafaela is doubtful to be traded) 2. Mayer-Romy at 2B or 3B. 3. Casas-Romy-Campbell at 1B 4. Masa-Romy (Campbell/Garcia) at DH (maybe re-sign Refsnyder) Masa's salary makes this slot unlikely to be "upgraded." 5. The SS slot could be filled by Mayer with Story moving to 2B, but Brez seemed to negate that option if his recent comments.

Yes, tied for about 40th out of 180 that qualified with 150+ IP. If you divide #1s, 2's and 3's by groups of 30, they'd both be #2s, but many of the pitchers did not pitch in '23 and the IP totals are a big part of fWAR. Others on your list: 1. Skubal (1 yr control) 5. S Gray (2 yrs at a high salary) 7. Valdez FA 8. Sale (2 yrs and injuries) 9. Cease FA (12 Crochet) 15. R Suarez FA 16. Lopez (had arm issues) 17. Wacha (not mentioned in "KCR fit") 20. Ragans (3 yrs) 22. Gallen FA (bad season) 25. Nate (not on trade market?) 27. Ryan (the most targeted by poster suggestions) 28. H Greene (probably not being shopped) 29. Bibee (on market?) 30. L Castillo 31. Lugo (another KCR guy) 32. Burnes 33. Keller (a better option than Bubic, Ragans, Alcantara and others?) 37. Flaherty 38. Eflin FA 39. Bassitt FA (older than God) 40. Gore & Singer 44. M Kelly FA (maybe the most cost-effective FA option?) 46. Ober 50. Verlander FA (speaking of age and God.) 51. King FA (injuries) (54. Bello) 66. N Martinez FA high 4's: Lodolo, Littell, Monty, Alcantara, ERod

I'm not sure we can say Mayer's bat was not "ready." I thought he looked better than Campbell, which isn't saying much, but he seemed to be getting the hang of it, right before the injury. His sample size was too small, and the recency sample sizes are even smaller. .507 first 9 games (35 PAs) .730 last 35 games (101 PAs) He was pretty good in the minors but not as impressive as KC and RA: .818 in AAA (9 HRs in 170 PAs) .763 in AA (14 HRs in 524 PAs) .865 in A+ (11 HRs in 280) .910 in A- (9 HRs in 308) 43 HRs in about 1300 PAs or 22 per 650)

I totally agree. I will not be shocked if 2 of the 3 "open" infield positions are filled from within, especially if we win the Schwarber sweepstakes and he is our '26 DH. I'm okay with Mayer/Romy at 2B or Casas/Romy at 1B, if we fill the other two slots with significant additions- one being a major add like Alonso or two like Bregman (3B) and Suarez (2B) or Bichette/Polanco/Marte (2B) and Suarez (1B)

Of course. I get the math, but do you think Cal's HR projection is under or over? BTW, I agree with your point on questioning Mayer and Anthony as being 2026 major power sources. They may eventually become decent power bats, but I don't think either is there yet, in terms of projections.

I agree. If somehow we can work out a way to dump or swap dumps, okay, but we need to plan on them being on the roster in '26. The best shot at dumping one is NOT as a throw-in to balance money in a trade package, unless the other team has roster room for Hicks or Masa, but rather as a stand-alone deal where we trade Masa + $13-14M a year for nothing special or Hicks + $6-8M a year for nothing special. Even this is unlikely. Again, any suggested trade ever made is going to be "unlikely."

No. I am one of the few remaining fans who is not a dump JH supporter. (I'm almost there, and this winter might get me to that point.) I've not been happy with JH, but 4 rings carry a lot of weight, to me.

That post was half in jest. When trading for a player with a high price tag, money is often part of the return. It's not an absurd concept, and maybe Brez isn't the only GM who sees some hope in a Hicks turn-around.

34 to 49 HRs are not really nothing. His age is very worrisome, but he may cost half of what Alonso & Schwarber will cost. I'd love to see us get 2 big bats- one from each group (last resort a B with a C) : A: Alonso or Schwarber B: Suarez, K Marte (trade) or Polanco C: Bregman or Bichette (both fill our high need at 3B or 2B) The B group will likely cost less money than the C group. I'm not sure Suarez and Polanco float my boat, but KMart & Suarez, along with a solid #2 SP'er would get me close to my minimum needs-filled point.

Not saying I'd do this, and KCR might say no, but how about Jh Garcia for Bubic? We can bring Ref back as the RHB OF/DH platoon option, and we don't want Garcia on the ML roster as a short-side platoon, anyway, so maybe... We also have Campbell as a RHB option, but like Garcia, we'd only call him up as a FT player- not in a platoon role. Would we offer Campbell for Ragans? He's 27 and has a 117 ERA+ and 2.87 FIP from '24-'25. (3 years: 120 ERA+ and 2.96 FIP.) Campbell and Sandlin? Ragans has 3 years of control and a $4.4 AAV for the next 2 years. He's not the #2 I want, and I'm usually against trading for mid-rotation starters but he could jump Bello in the rotation order and be a decent #2. Maybe we can trade for him and someone like Ryan- making Bello/Ragans our 3 & 4s.

If JH is allowing the budget to go near the second line or higher, I'd be interested in signings like this, but I have serious doubts, and I still think we have higher needs. I guess another point is how much are we willing to trade away this winter? I said the same thing last year, and it didn't really work out as I thought: we have so much SP'er depth that I think we can use some of them to fortify the pen with long relief guys. The amount of injuries to SP'ers got so high, we ended up trading for May and using two rookies not thought to be in the mix in April. This year, despite Houcks season-long injury, I think we have even more SP'er depth that can and will be used in the pen. Crochet, Bello and Sandoval will be SP'ers. I doubt we mess with Early and Tolle in the pen, but if we have 5 SP'ers going strong, and we need pen help, we might resort to using one or both in relief roles. The higher odds pen guys might be (in this order) 1. Fitts 2. Criswell (out of option) 3. Perales 4. Crawford 5. Dobbins 6. Harrison (maybe he's 4th or 5th) (Sandlin was used in relief, last year, but struggled there.)

MLBTR listed 3 pitchers "on the trade market" Gore: 2 arbs remaining ($5M est '26) Singer: last arb ($12.1M est '26) S Gray: $35M '26 w club option '27 $30M w $5M buyout ($24.8M AAV) I'm going to add that if STL is looking to retool and dump salary, they have Willson Contreras at 1B, who is owed $18M, $18.5M & $17.5M option w $5M buyout ($17.5M AAV.) These are overpaid players, and notice I did not list Arenado, because he's owed even more than Yoshida. Trading for Gray and Contreras would eat up the whole budget up to the first tax line, unless we sent back some salary, like $12M Hicks, $7.7M Duran, $7.5M Campbell or somehow got them to take part of Yoshida's deal, but why would a team perhaps looking to cut salary not try to max out their savings? I do wonder, if they might take Campbell, Hicks and Casas for Gray & Contreras. Note: I'm not sure I'd do this, since it adds about $22M AAV. Sonny Gray has been a damn good pitcher, but his number have decline up to this 36 year old season. Contreras turns 34 next season, but his OPS+ has remained pretty steady near 123-130ish w 20ish HR power. Trading for 1 year of Singer is okay, if we don't give up much, but Gore might be the best option. However, I see he and Songer as decent 3/4 SP'ers and we have a bunch of guys with hopes of filling that role, including Bello who has kinda proven he is just that. I still like the idea of Ryan or Lodolo. I feel Alcantara, despite the high ceiling, is too much of a risk for what he may cost in return. Brez was hinting at signing a pitcher and trading for a bat, which goes against my opinion, but without knowing who he has in mind, I'll hold off being critical.

Just pointing out the consistent underprojections.

I'm all in on adding 2 mega bats, but if we go three good ones, maybe this works: Trade Mayer & Campbell for K Marte (2B) and Duran for Lodolo. Sign Alonso (1B) Suarez (3B) and M Kelly (SP) & Refsnyder 1. L Anthony LF 2. R Alonso 1B 3. S Marte 2B 4. R Suarez 3B 5. L Abreu RF 6. R Story SS 7. L Yoshida DH 8. R Narvaez C 9. R Rafaela Bench: Wong, Romy, Refsnyder, DHam SP: Crochet, Lodolo, Kelly, Bello, Sandoval/Dobbins/Crawford/Harrison/Perales/Fitts/Early/Tolle/Drohan/Uberstine/Anderson RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Bernardino, Fitts, Hicks, Murphy/Criswell, Wink/ Moran/Kelly/Sandlin/Mullins

,,,and only 39 for Cal.

Doesn't matter. Selling Sale works, either way.

One top 5 power hitter + a pretty good hitter or Two top 25 (or so) power hitters. 1. 3B or 2B 2. 1B (possibly DH)