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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. Sorry. I have to fight back laughter on this. I'm done counting on hopes of pitchers returning from the IL on schedule or earlier.
  2. On not addressing the power need and "not improving" on power from the 2025 season: the guy who jumps to mind the most is Devers, and rightly so, but he was only here for a couple months. The Sox w Devers: .169 ISO/ .422 SLG The Sox after Devers: .166 ISO/ .421 SLG Not much difference, so one could argue we can compare the post Devers Sox to the 2026 Sox, but I'll include Devers in the list of departed batters: Note that none of our best power hitters were top 3 in PAs and only Bregman was top 7. (Only Breggie & Raffy were top 11 in PAs) .232/.504 Devers (334 PaS) .214/.482 Refsnyder (209 PAs) .189/.462 Bregman (495 PAs) .140/.420 N Lowe (119) .131/.256 Toro (284) 10th in PAs Adds: .190/.447 Contreras (563) is close to Bregman (may see numbers rise in Fenway) .130/.387 Durbin (506) improves on Toro's power numbers a bit but not Lowe's. We really need 600+ PAs from... .171/.468 Anthony (303) at similar numbers as these- maybe with some more pop. It's not an unreasonable ask. It is safe to say we did not improve on HR power from 2025, and instead we'll need improved pop from returning players and maybe from Contreras & Durbin playing half their games at Fenway.
  3. Very true. It's always hard to measure when you improve in 1-2 area but get worse in 1-2 other areas.
  4. "Elite" is a relative term. Preventing HRs is just as important as hitting them.
  5. Did you miss the comment about joking? Nobody wants Masa. He'd be gone, if just one team halfway wanted him or just mentioned his name in a conversation with Brez.
  6. Durbin turns 26, soon. While the age of prime varies from player to player, and many players don't get any better after 25 or 26, the ones who stick around into their 30's more often than not get better. After 3 seasons in college at over a 1.000 ops, Caleb hovered in the mid .700s, until he reached AAA in 2024. Over two seasons in AAA, he hit .858 with about 18 HRs per 650 (45 2B+3B & 45 SBs) Maybe this is his ceiling? It's hard to know. .285 w 20 HRs and 30 SBs is pretty good. He won't K much, so that will make some posters happy. He seems pretty good on D, too, and it remains to be seen where they place him and Mayer. He wasn't the big bat many of us had hoped for, so I do still feel a sense of a letdown. AI felt a little bit the same way with Contreras and not Alonso. The two mini let downs combine into a sense of being a bigger letdown. I totally get the doom & gloomers. We coulda-shoulda and didn't. We did make up for at least some of that let down by power boosting the rotation beyond anyone's expectations. We traded away and swapped out some of the rotation depth, but we still remain about 4 SP'ers deep and at a level of quality very few, if any, teams can match. We may need to steal one or two of those arms for the pen, but maybe we add a piece there before opening day. I'm feeling cautiously optimistic about 2026. We have a lot of upside players that are pre or near prime. We don't need them all to step up, but I do not think it is unreasonable to expect more players to step up than to regress or stay the same. Most of our key players are in prime years or before. A few are on the downside of prime, but still able to produce. Only Chapman and Gray are past the normal ages of prime.
  7. It would have taken a miracle. Planning for a miracle is foolish.
  8. It was meant as at least half a joke.
  9. This was about Masa being the LH'd OF'er they seek. It's not happening.
  10. When you look at the Sox ring seasons this century, you can see a very strong correlation between many GS'd by our top SP'ers and WS victories. Even when you look at the near miss seasons, they were highlighted by upticks in pitching.
  11. Let's assume Kelly, Romy & Casas begin the year on the IL or in AAA, our 26 man roster would have 10 players who did not play a single game for the Sox in 2025: Suarez, Gray, Oviedo, Crawford, Sandoval, Watson (+Moran w 4 IP) Contreras, Durbin, Kiner-Falefa & Monasterio The AAA roster has at least 17 players new to the system: Sikkema, Gamboa, Samaniego, Berrios, Sweet, Martinez, T Guerrero, Nittoli, K Keller Gasper, Thaiss, Rodgers, Cheng, Ward, Lloyd, Seigler, Capra, Frazier
  12. Final 2025 fWAR fWAR Team (Everyday/Pitching)>>> 2026 Projected 50.6 NYY (34.3/16.3)>>> 47.5 (-3.1 seems about right) 44.3 TOR (32.6/11.7)>>>47.9 (+3.6- I don't see it) 43.6 BOS (25.2/18.4)>>>46.2 (+2.6 I think we did better than TOR) 31.0 TBR (15.7/15.3)>>>38.6 (+7.6 Huh????) 24.1 BAL (14.1/10.0) >>>45.3 (+21.2 Whoa, Nellie!!!)
  13. My case is pitchers deserve MVP awards often. The best often face more batters than any batter has ever faced a pitcher in a season. The argument that they only play every 5 games doesn't hold water, to me. No batter ever gets 20-30 PAs a game, either. The Sox 3 best pitchers were more important than our 3 best bats and maybe even our 4 or 5 or even 6 best bats. I don't think we need a single player to have a career year on offense, although with players at their ages, it should happen. Duran can play somewhere between the '24 and '25 seasons and be a huge help. Story had a decent year in '25 but far from his career best. Just a repeat of '25 would be great. Contreras should be helped by Fenway and do better than '25, but need not have a career high (.888 or even over .840 like he did 5 times, already- just hit .800 to .825ish, maybe?) Narvaez, Rafaela, Romy, Durbin and others- just repeat 2025. I do expect a better 2026 from Abreu and maybe Anthony to just do the same as 2025 but with double the PAs, but neither needs to bust out. Mayer set a pretty low bar in 2025. Of course, expecting everyone to do the same of better is probably a longer shot that expecting 3-4 to have career years, but we don't need a miracle.
  14. We kinda fell apart last year, at the end. Gio, Bello and the bats. That's not to say we were better than our record indicated but the Pythagorean numbers said we were (or should have been) better. I think TOR and NYY stayed about the same and we improved to an unspecific degree. The Yanks are a much older team. TOR lost some key players and added question marks to replace them. BAL improved, but they started behind us. SP: much better Pen: about the same Defense: much better Offense: worse- maye much worse These are not 4 equal parts, so it's hard to decide on how much better we will be, but on paper, I think 2-4 wins more. (We were 5 wins away from TOR and NYY in 2025.) BTW, Pyth had NYY at 97 and TOR at 88, last year.
  15. Me, too, and Cora said something that rang true to me. He said, "We now have a complete team."
  16. If Javier could regain what he once had, this would be a steal. The 2027 cost would be higher for the Sox, but the upside might be worth it. HOU would say no, unless they see value in Masa as an OF'er. (They have a DH)
  17. Kimmi, I got it done! BTV accepts: Masa (+$5M) Sandoval & Bleis for Christian Javier Javier is owed $21.4M x 2, but Masa (18) Sandoval (7.8) =$25.8 (The $5M kinda evens it out)
  18. There must be a mental block. If you won't trade an OF'er than just tear off the Masa band-aid.
  19. '24 was a tough one. Had we sold in '22 and '23, we'd have had a better foundation in '24, '25 and now.
  20. I agree 100%. I think Kutter might fit into this role very well. There is also a bit of a mind shift and physical aspect of knowing you don't have to go 5-7IP. Closer: Chapman 8th/9th inning: Whitlock 8th inning: Slaten & Wiessert 7th inning/2-3 inning RP: Crawford (Oviedo or Sandoval?) Low/Moderate Leverage: Watson, Moran, Kelly
  21. I admit, most of the moves I listed look sideways and not big Wows, but the roster makeover has been absolutely stunning, even if you don't like many of the changes.
  22. I was for selling in 2 of those seasons and on the fence for the third.
  23. I'd say the Yanks were "lateral," too, but they did add some pitching depth. Standing pat rarely works in any sport.
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