moonslav59

The #1, #2, #4 & #5 AL teams by projected fWAR play in the ALE. (4 of the top 9 in MLB!) Good thing we don't play the old schedule with super loaded divisional games anymore. We do still play them more, so that will suppress the win totals for all ALE teams, in theory. I think DET & SEA are legit contenders for 6 teams in the AL, but I think there is a significant drop off between DET and #7 HOU, and fWAR projections support that opinion. The O's at #5 are 2.0 away from NYY (#2) and 3.3 ahead of HOU at #7. The Tigers at #6 are 1.2 from BAL and 1.9 from BOS, but are 2.1 ahead of HOU. I don't see HOU beating out both BOS and BAL- maybe one but not both. (We better top BAL!!!)

No doubt on that. He averages about 1 SB per two times he reaches 1B, so a higher OBP would make him much more valuable. Hey, we shoulda got JBJ back in this deal!

With our issue with power, I though maybe Contreras and Abreu could play 160-162 games, if they DH'd 10 times, instead of playing 155-157 games and having 5-7 complete days off (maybe PH in 1 or 2 or 'em.) I'm fine with this choice. BTW, Cora did not say Contreras would never DH. He also did not say Duran would not. If everyone is healthy (except Casas), I think we might see this at DH... 80 Duran (75 in LF/CF) 42 Masa 40 Anthony (115 in LF/RF)

I have no issue projecting us 3rd or 4th. The issue was over the term you used. No biggie. Let's move on. I'd predict 2nd, but I'm not sure who is first. I see us, NYY and TOR as having about the same chance at 1st, 2nd and 3rd. I do think the O's have improved a lot, but they were so far behind, I just don't see a jump that high. Unlike TOR and NYY, they do have the youth to match or exceed ours.

You posted.... What finishing in 4th place "at best" means is that I believe it is more likely we will finish there more than anywhere else That's not the same as saying.... under "the most favorable circumstances" the FLOPS will IMO finish fourth. Under less than the most favorable circumstances they will finish dead last. "More likely than anywhere else" and "at best" are not equal statements. Had you said the first statement right away, nobody would have said a peep.

He needs to get on base to use 'em. Career .283 OBP. That "great" 2024 season saw a .303 OBP. 69 singles + BBs and 33 SBs.

Did I even hint that they needed to or should have protected him? You seem to read things into statements that just aren't there or even implied. The point was that he really wasn't viewed all that highly, until the time we decided to protect him, and even then, we only valued him more than someone like Paez.

So, the idea of keeping Abreu's bat in the line-up while he "rests" at DH is not going to happen. My guess we will face enough "tough lefties," where it's worth giving him a full day off, anyway.

Yes, I only get the Texas Roadhouse one. It's often complementary with a coupon.

Yes, after leaving him unprotected for Rule 5, the previous year. He'd probably make many teams' 40. He's not terrible or hopeless, but he's not really a "prize" in trade.

I think it's hard to value pitching smarts, and that's what I think Early's strength is. He just seems to know where to pitch to. He doesn't have nasty stuff, but it is pretty good. He can still get better. I realize a 4 start sample size is puny, but he was called up before Tolle for a reason.

Sox bWARs from 2025: 6.3 Crochet 4.7 Rafaela & Duran 3.8 Story 3.5 Chapman 3.2 Abreu 3.1 Anthony (half a season) 2.8 Durbin (w MIL) 2.6 Narvaez 2.5 Bello 2.5 Contreras (w STL) 2.4 Whitlock 2.0 Romy 1.1 Weissert 0.6 Early (4 starts) 0.2 mayer & Masa ___________________ fWAR 5.8 Crochet 3.9 Duran 3.8 Rafaela & Gray 3.0 Story 2.8 Contreras 2.7 Anthony & Narvaez 2.6 Chapman & Durbin 2.4 Abreu 2.2 Whitlock 1.9 Bello 1.5 Romy 1.1 Early 0.7 Weissert 0.4 Slaten, Kelly, Mayer & Eaton

That's not what "at best" means.

They must have liked something more than we did.

The Sox were 10th in ISO and 9th in SLG in '25. In 2004, we were first and second. (T 3rd in pitching fWAR) 2007: 8th and 6th. (6th in pitching) 2013: 1st and 2nd. (14th in pitching) 2018: 4th and 1st (6th in pitching fWAR) ____________________________________ From 2004-2013: 2nd ISO/1st SLG & 9th in Pitching 2014-2018: 15th ISO/ 6th SLG & 8th in Pitching 2019-2024: 6th ISO/ 4th SLG & 15th Pitching

But only at 2B and only vs RHPs and only for half a season and only for...

I do wonder about Springer repeating. I also wonder about Grisham, too.

It's not like I came up with the notion for the first time in history.

Counting on Houck to be ready in April 2027 might be too much to ask.

AL Projected Team fWAR 47.9 TOR 47.5 NYY 46.8 SEA 46.2 BOS (-1.7 from TOR/ -1.3 from NYY/ -0.6 from SEA) 45.3 BAL 44.3 DET 42.3 HOU

No wonder they make dumb trades like this.

I almost wrote this, yesterday.

The O's have finally made some serious moves, but they started so far behind us, I'm not sure how close we can rate them. We won 14 more games than they did in 2025 and 22 more by the Pythagorean numbers. IMO, we got better, so in theory, they have to make up more than 14-22 games. I know I let my hatred towards the Yanks cloud my judgement, and I've been predicting their decline, mostly due to age factors, having a dumb manager and GM, and quite frankly spending on worse players than we have in recent years. I thought losing Soto was going to kill them, but they got a career year from Grisham and some ole fogies did better than I thought. I'm going to run my mantra again, this winter: I think the Yanks get worse in 2026. BTW, we were in second place on September 10, 2025. It's not a great leap to think we will pass them. TOR way outperformed their Pythagorean numbers (by 6 wins.) I'm not sure how much that matters, but it's a straw I grasped. I don't think losing Bichette & Bassitt and adding a questionable Cease & Oko is going to make up for that loss. Ponce could be a big help- or not. I think 1st and 2nd place are well within our reach, and not so much because we made any great gains, but because the other teams failed to improve or even got worse. I also look at our key players positions on the prime bell curve and think we have a better chance of seeing improvement that they do.

I'm actually shocked at how little we gave up for Durbin. Had it only been Durbin, without the 2 other depth players and the comp pick, which should not be undervalued, even if just for the added bonus money, it would still look great, to me. MIL must really like Harrison. It better not be DHam they like.

Don't link those onions to idiocy. They are pure genius.