moonslav59

Remaining top FAs (ranked by MLBTR) 1. Tucker OF (no chance) 2. Bichette 2B/SS (fat chance) 4. Murakami 3B/1B (Hmmm) 5. Bregman 3B (maybe) 6. Valdez SP (nope) 7. Imai SP (only if we trade 2-3 pitchers) 8. Bellinger OF/1B (nope) 10. Ranger Suarez SP (not likely) 15. Gallen SP (nope) 19. Okamoto 3B/1B (might be our best chance at a top 20 FA) 20. Suarez 3B (1B?) Maybe? 22. Imanaga SP, 24 Bassitt SP, 27 Giolito (longshots) 29. Realmuto C (I hope not.) 30. O'Hearn 1B/DH/OF & 34. Arraez 1B (doubt it) 33. N Martinez SP, 35 Littell SP & 38 Verlander (maybe on 1 yr deal) 43 S Dominguez RP, 44 Fairbanks (maybe?) N/R J Wilson RP, Hoskins 1B, Moncada 3B/2B, Refsnyder OF

They'd have to take Masa and maybe Hicks.

At their cost, just sign Bregman and Suarez.

It will take more than Castro, so maybe we can give them 2 SP'ers- maybe two from Drohan, Sandlin, Mullins & Uberstine... LOL. (I doubt all 4 get him.)

2 years is not too long for JH. Nate has a pretty decent injury history, so that fits the model, too. That being said, he is a #1/#2 when healthy, for sure. Wonder what the return would have to be.

I'm driving the add 2 bats bandwagon.

I don't want to trade young pitching either, but two points: 1. If JH won't spend, and we can wish he does all we want, but if it doesn't happen, now, why will it happen when these young studs mature? Why wish for a future that looks the same as now? 2. We have a ton of ML ready Sp'ers and a ton or promising to very promising pitching prospects. I think we can afford to trade a couple. Just hope the next one is not the next Priester. Crochet, Gray & Bello are needed. We can afford to trade 2 or even 3 from this group, especially if we get a better pitcher in return: Oviedo, Crawford, Harrison, Dobbins, Uberstine, Drohan, Sandlin I'd try very hard to not trade Tolle or Early, and maybe not Witherspoon, Fajardo and Valera, too, but we can afford to trade 1 from that group of 3. I say that because I have faith that 2-3 from this next group moves up to where those three are, now: Bennett, Holobetz, Phillips, Eyanson, Mullins, Watson, Samaniego, Delzine, Monegro, Aita, Cason or a few others. We barely have slots for all these guys in rotations across the minors. We need to identify the keepers, do a better job than we did with Priester and do something bold. We have to give to get. We need to move from quantity to quality as we are smack dab in the middle of a promising window. I'm not for trading away the future, but we can mortgage some of it. I'm not for trading them away for one and done players, either. Again, waiting for JH to open up his wallet might be pointless and a waste of our thoughts and talks. I'd love for that to be our focus, but I'm not hopeful it will be. The only other way to build this team up another notch is by trades. Trading DHam, Wong and Hicks isn't getting us what we need.

There don't seem to be any 1 year Bregman type deals out there, but we have seen Polanco and M Kelly sign 2 year deals and H-S Kim to a 1 year deal. Any of those three could have helped, and my guess is more will sign for 1-2 years, but yes, not the top-of-the-line FAs. IMO, we needed 2-3 major additions, and perhaps Gray sort of filled one. Polanco might have sort of filled another. Is there another Polanco? Maybe Suarez signs for 2 years. He's been good for a while and never gets the long deal. Could Bichette not like the top offer and sign a show me, one year deal or something like Bregman's deal with an opt out after year 1? Maybe the 5 years on Marte's deal keeps us from offering the best package, but I'm certain he will be traded. To me, he is the top prize remaining- warts and all. I'm not sure if they want Duran, Rafaela or Campbell as the centerpiece. Maybe a third team can create the same effect. I would not add Tolle or Early to the package, but I'd offer two from Bennett, Oviedo, Crawford, Harrison, Dobbins, and either Witherspoon, Fajardo or Valera (maybe not both.) I understand that my habit of throwing more lesser players is not usually the winning offer, but we have to keep our best players and prospects.

That very well could be the case, and it's understandable. The one certain fact is that we never feel like we value the best FAs, financially as much as others do, unless they are willing to take one or two year deals. That puts us in a box. We've rarely been successful with these shorter deals, and even the biggest success story, Bregman, only played 114 games. (Okay, Chapman was a big one year success, but that was kind of surprising.) The last big FA signing had us rumored as bidding against only ourselves and way overpaying for Yoshida. The one before that, Trevor Story, was largely seen as a precursor to replacing Bogey, but nevertheless, it was a pretty large and long deal. Not top of the line, but pretty big and pretty long. The Sale extension and Nate resigning were the last somewhat large and long deals signed, until the Devers & Crochet extensions. I may be wishful thinking here, and maybe it's actually a dumb idea, but I think this could and should be the winter we break the mold and splurge on a quality player for 3 or more years and $20-25M+ a year- maybe even 4 x $25-29M or 5 x $20-26M. The history argues against such signings, but the history of winning teams shows most have one or more of these deals on their budget. My hopes are as follows (in order): 1. We trade for Marte (hopefully not Tolle or Early.) 2. We sign Bregman. 3. We sign Suarez. (Two of these 3 would be nice, as we could then trade Mayer & Rafaela/Duran for an ace.) 4. Trade for an ace OR SOLID #2. (Maybe sign Ranger Suarez) (Bichette is a distant 5th, and I'd rather we just trade for Donovan, Contreras, Murphy or Y Diaz types as consolation prizes.)

I agree, but I often wonder how much Brez misguesses what some of the FAs will end up getting. "Showing interest" and underbidding by 1-2 years and or $5+M a year is sort of like wasting time and energy. I get the idea that you have to "kick the tires," but sometimes our reported offers look absurd.

I think we are done adding pitchers. I think we subtract by one or two. (Maybe we subtract 3-4 and add one.) I'm certain we add a batter, but he might be underwhelming. (Perhaps Yandy Diaz, Wiillson Contreras, Sean Murphy at 1B or Vientos or Paredes (1B/3B) or Donovan (2B.) I'm losing hope we get Bregman, Suarez or KMarte. Maybe 40% we get one of these 3.

Selected Players' fWAR (MLB rank) + OPS since 2021: 20.3 Devers (21st) .868 (1st on this listy) 20.0 Bogey (25th) .784 (10th on list) 19.6 Bregman (29th) .799 (7th on this list) 19.4 K Marte (31st) .857 (3rd on this list) 17.7 Bichette (37th) .795 (8th) 17.4 Realmuto (39th) ,771 16.3 S Murphy (43rd) .767 15.8 Alonso (44th) .842 (4th) 15.4 Suarez .767 & Y Diaz .822 (5th) (T45th in fWAR) 14.4 Wi Contreras (59th) .809 (6th) 13.0 T Hernandez (65th) 14.1 Schwarber (61st) .867 (2nd) 12.8 Duran (67th) .780 12.4 Paredes (70th) .777 11.9 B Lowe (76th) .792 (9th) 11.2 H-S Kim (82nd) 10.1 Donovan (91st) 8.7 Story (105th) Last 3 years top OPS (1000+ PAs) .892 Tucker .887 K Marte ,886 Schwarber .857 Devers .843 Y Diaz .827 Alonso .817 Wi Contreras .810 Duran .796 Bregman .780 B Lowe .778 Bichette .775 Suarez .774 Teoscar ,771 Donovan .762 Yoshida .753 Polanco .746 S Murphy .738 Viento (and Bogey) .736 Realmuto

Over Uberstine & Drohan????

"Sorry franchises" don't win 4 rings in 2 decades. BTW, we went over the tax line in 2015. Only 7 teams did, and they are called big spenders or sometimes "BIG MARKET." High quality gets? Crochet was gotten before extended. Chapman- only the best RP'er in MLB in 2025 and maybe the best RP season since Koji. Gray Close or promising high quality: Giolito Slaten Narvaez Tolle O'Neill (for scraps)

Exactly and no reason to say you're sorry. We've been bitching about losing Betts for over 5 years. The bitching about Bogey bolting has all but gone away, and much of the complaining has been about not replacing these loses in kind. Had we extended those guys way back when, maybe we'd have avoided some of these major setbacks. (We did extend Bogey.) Now, we are doing things differently, and yes, some of these extensions may not work out all that well, but I for one applaud the efforts and seed change. I for one am not trying to defend or prop up this management group. They don't deserve it, but I'm also not going to deny that some serious changes have taken place. I listed 10 and also spoke about the major shift towards obtaining and developing pitching prospects, and that may yield the best results over any of the 10 events I named. It's been rather astounding how quickly Brez, with some help from Bloom, reshaped our ML pitching staff and depth as well as the farm pitching depth from the rookie leagues to AAA. Brez has traded away some promising pitchers and of course Sale, but in the overall scheme of things, he's done a tremendous job building quality depth. Some moves have already proven worthless, many are TBD and some have already netted plus results. (Not counting FA signings) Crochet for a lot of prospects Gray and Oviedo for players/prospects Slaten was a Rule 5 trade Weissert and Fitts for Dugo Harrison is not worth Devers, but he does have promise. Moran for Gasper Prospects by rank: 1. Tolle -draft 4. Witherspoon- draft 6. Bennett for Perales did not add to pitching, but he is promising, 8. Fajardo- for Booser 10. Sandlin- for Schreiber 11. Phillips & 12. Eyanson- draft 16. Drohan- reacquired from Rule 5 loss 17. Holobetz- for Priester 22. Watson- for Reimer 24. Delzine- IFA 30. Samaniego- Rule 5 trade That's 20 pitchers, so far, not counting FAs and then add these 11 more.... 36 Aita, 37 Tygart, 46 Foutch, 52 Neeley, 53 Morgan, 58 Patton & Finley: all by draft. 42. E Rivera & 58. Cooper Adams by MiLBFA 50. I Jackson- for Grissom 55. Jose Bello- for Devers Pretty amazing.

Deals like Fulmer are fine with me, and he was not a major add. He was signed as depth. Sandoval does not have a guaranteed rotation slot- far from it. We only have 3- Crochet, Gray and Bello. Oviedo might be ahead of Sandoval on the current depth chart based on expectations, but all of our rotation depth after Bello have to earn their slots. As of today, I might order them like this, but none are locked into any slot: 4/5 Oviedo & Sandoval 5/6 Crawford & Harrison 6/7/8/9/10 Dobbins, Tolle, Early 11+ Uberstine, Drohan, Sandlin and maybe Bennett or Mullins with Holobetz as a longshot. I'd much prefer a bit more quality over quantity, but we had 11+ guys last winter and ended up with Newcomb in the opening season rotation and had to trade for DMay and start 2 rookies not in that initial top 11 depth chart in March 2025.

Yes, the deals like Paxton, Hendriks and Sandoval all promised some help in late season 1, but it never happened, and then year 2 was no walk in the park. The Gio signing was different. He was healthy and had a durable history. The year 1 was an unexpected event, but nevertheless, it happened. The other longer deals had opt-outs. It was good to see Chapman extended and given another option year, but they guy is turning 80 soon. We did lock up Crochet, but when the next longterm FA signing happens is in doubt. Yoshida and Story are the only two in over 6 years, and neither was really top dollar.

The sliver of hope, to me was last winter- most notably the Crochet trade, extension and the Bregman signing. Yes, there as the opt outs. There was also the Buehler signing, which sucked, but the money spent was about double the previous winter SP'er signings, except for Gio, who was still on the books when we inked that deal. There was a significant uptick in spending and some changes to the team philosophy on spending, starting with the massive Devers extension- both in years and dollars. That was #1. 2. Bello extended. 3. Rafaela extended. 4. Giolito signed for 2 years NOT 1 (with 3rd year insurance, if he got hurt year 2.) 5. The Crochet trade was the biggest since Sale. 6. The Crochet extension. The largest and longest pitcher deal since Price. 7. The Bregman contract shattered our FA AAV record. 8. The Campbell extension. 9. The Anthony extension. 10. That Chapman signing (then extension.) We did not have 10 moves like this in over 5 years combined (from Nata/Sale deals to the Devers deal.) There is no denying a shift took place. We can talk about why they did it, and if it will continue, but we cannot deny it happened. Some worries happened after these 10 events: 1. We dumped Devers and took on the Hicks deal, while adding little production. 2. Bregman opted out. 3. Giolito opted out. So far, we replaced the Buehler deal with Gray, but we gave up a couple decent prospects to do that. That looks like a plus, but maybe it's offset by replacing Gio with Oviedo, who also cost a couple players to get him. I have serious doubts about 2026 and beyond. I have zero expectations, thanks to these management groups continuing lies and deceptions- or shams, as I like to call it. I'll believe it when I see it. As bad as things got after the Betts trade, the one good thing management did was to build (too slowly) up the 40 man roster depth and farm from top to bottom. The recent shift towards building up the farm pitching has been eye-opening. I can't help but ask, "for what reason?" At this point, we should be looking to fill the 2-3 major gaps we have on the 26 man roster: 3B or 2B (wherever Mayer/Romy do not play) 1B (No, we cannot count on Casas for 2026) SP2 (No, Gray should be our #3 not #2.) If we just fill 2 of these slots with real talent, we can get by without the third, but the problem is, I have serious doubts we even fill one of the three slots with a true impact player. We sit and we wait- just like every offseason since pre 2018.

Before I looked, I expected massive sample size differences and the percent of success to be closer than it was. The drop off, at least in 2025 was profound at 300 PAs. How about 150 PAs cutoff? Only 28 players 34-37 made the cut. 8 at 2.1+ 7 from 1.1 to 2.0 (15 at 1.1+) 54% 22 are above 0 2 at 0 4 in negative (14%) _________________ 30-33 (99 player sample size is over 3 x more than 34-37 yr olds) 41 at 2.1 or more 15 at 1.1 to 2.0 (56/99 are at 1.1 or more) 59% does not blow 34-37 away, but there are some whoppingly big fWARs in this group) 81 are plus 1 at 0 17 are negative (17% shows more also suck, as a percentage) __________________ 26-29 has a 146 players w 150+ PAs (50% more than 30-33 and over 5 X the oldest group!) 43 are at 2.1 or more 33 from 1.1 to 2.0 (76/146 at 1.1 or more) 52%, which is lower than both older groups, 114 at 0.1 or more 5 at 0 27 are negative (18% is worse than the older groups) ____________________________ I'm not sure what this all means. There were less older players than I thought. The ones that stick around suck less than younger players, but they don't reach the highs either. As a percent in each group by fWAR, there are not massive differentials by numbers, but if you add up all the WAR values and divided by how many in the group, I think we'd see stark differences. I was surprised the 30-33 look better than 26-29.

I doubt we only sign 1 year guys, this winter. We signed Gio and Hendriks to super long 2 year deals (LOL) before 2024, and signed Sandoval, last winter. Now, when we need top talent, we will back off on 2 year deals? How about a one year with team option with a buyout?

I see that point, but I also see how our pitching depth is a goldmine for trading purposes, especially to teams that can't afford to pay for FA pitching but think they are a decent SP'er or two away from having a shot. While I'd really like a solid #2 to push Gray to 3 and Bello to 4, our top need is a big bat. (I'd say two, but I keep getting shouted down.) Let AZ pay Bregman. We can trade an OF'er & a few pitchers (not named Tolle or Early) for Marte. Then, sign Suarez or Okamoto, or take a flyer on FA pitcher like Imai or be bold and get Ranger Suarez. Okay- okay, I'm dreaming, again. Pinch me.

If those rankings are correct, the need for offense is legit.

Good points. I'm not sure why the 2.3 cut-off, but I'll roll with it. I used fangraphs 2025 and 300+ PAs. 4 out of the 20 player sample size had an fWAR of 2.3 or more. 30-33 year olds: 39 out of 77 26-29: 39/101 22-25: 31/73 All way higher numbers and percentages. I'll do a deeper dive, later.

Kind of a quiet winter, so far. Plenty of moves- just not many big ones... Sonny Gray & $10M for Fitts & Clarke Johan Oviedo, Tyler Samaniego & Adonys Guzman for J Garcia & Travieso Ryan Watson (Rule5) for Riemer & lost J Paez to Rule 5 selection Jake Bennett for Perales Tristan Gray for Guerrero Ronny Hernandez for Murphy Isaiah Jackson for Grissom Braiden Ward for Bernardino Luke Heyman for Hoppe

I'm not trying to get one that they actually do, so keep on trying to figure out other posters' motivations. I did get the Cody Ross signing right way back in the day! LOL!