moonslav59

Schwarber was not looking like a downgrade on defense at 1B, until after the trade and Dalbec suddenly looking like a GG 1Bman. We also looked like we had a minus on offense at 1B at the time of the trade. You really don't see the relevance?

Did you want the games?

Who?

No, but some sure sound like they know better than Bloom & Co. Like, he was supposed to know Dalbec would become the best hitter in MLB and begin to defend well, and that our pen- a strength up to that point was going to implode from top to bottom.

We also had hopes that Houck could give us more innings than before the deadline, and he has, plus maybe better health from Arroyo. Our defense has been a major reason we have been losing. I don't recall many posters saying we should trade to upgrade our D.

We certainly are not looking all that good, right now, or recently, but what significance does August first hold? If you chose August 10th, we've been 16-15. Still not great or even good, but it looks better than 18-22. Things can change, pretty quickly. We've seen the Yanks get incredibly hot, then ice cold. We saw the A's looking really good, then melt when faced with a tougher schedule. We've seen the Jays look very beatable, then look unbeatable for the last 3 weeks. My guess is, some team or a couple teams are going to flip the script the rest of the way. One of those teams could be us playing great, or the Rays or Yanks sucking, badly.

Indeed.

I know people make light of the fact that we have an easier schedule after this road trip, but what that actually means is that we have already played a harder schedule than TOR & NYY up to this point, so being tied is not a sign we are worse than them. Of course, the way the Rays look now, they are better, but we said that about the Yanks a few weeks ago, and then what?

Cherry-picked best/worst recent sample size records out of last 31 games. (Min 8 game sample size) Best TOR: 15-2 in last 17 SEA: 8-4 in last 12 NYY: 16-12 in last 28 BOS: 15-14 in last 29 OAK: 7-7 in last 14 Worst: TOR: 19-12 in last 31 SEA: 9-8 in last 17 BOS: 2-6 in last 8 NYY: 3-12 in last 15 OAK: 9-17 in last 28

Team Positional Defense DRS Rankings 30th 1B -11 25th 3B -9 22nd SS -3 18th CF -2 (Kike +11 DRS in CF) 18th 2B -1 16th RF -1 13th C +3 2nd LF +13 UZR/150 Rankings 28th 1B -4.8 23rd C (6.6 fangraphs rating on D) 22nd CF -3.7 (Kike +10.1 in CF) 18th 3B -2.8 14th RF -0.1 14th 2B +0.1 8th SS +2.2 5th LF +7.3

Maybe the Rays go 11-1, again. Maybe they pull a Yankee flip. I'll say it again, the last 12 games do not predict the next 12 games.

Updated Standings We are tied for the last WC slot but down 1 in the "L" column to them and 2 to the Jays (1down overall). 89-55 TBR 84-59 HOU 82-61 CWS 81-62 TOR +1 WC1 80-64 NYY -- TWC2 81-65 BOS -- TWC2 78-66 SEA -2.0 WC2 77-66 OAK -2.5 WC2 Here's an interesting way to look at our last month. We keep hearing how we haven't won a series vs a winning team or swept a series vs a losing team since BAL in mid AUG, but we have only lost 2 of our last 7 series, and both were by 2-1 margins with 3 of those 4 losses being by just one run. We are not far from winning these types of games, again. Our last 3 losses have been by 1 run. I still have faith, but it's getting harder to stay positive. No doubt.

Trends and momentum, whatever you call it, can change on a dime. We've seen it happen, just recently with the Yanks and Jays. Is it really not possible we might turn around on a dime, at any moment? I'm not saying it's likely, but isn't there a significant chance we can or do?

I know the two AL West teams have to pass 2-3 teams to make the WC slot, but they were give just 4% chances at making the playoffs: 73% Jays 62% Red Sox 56% Yanks 4.3% M's 4.1% A's 2.4% Rays (lose division)

Last night was, by far, not even close to our worst defensive 40 games.

Kike is a ++ in CF. Verdugo is fine in LF. Arroyo is a + at 2B, when healthy, but when is that gonna be? Dalbec is a cheap option at 1B and seems to be getting better, so I think we let 1B ride, while forgetting about Schwarber at 1B. Need fixing... (not likely we address all 4, this winter) SS C RF 3B

Now or for next season? Iggy's D has dropped significantly over the last few years.

Agreed, but are we going to swap out 7 positions going into 2022? We need to focus on 2 things: 1. The most important defensive positions (SS, C, 3B, CF) 2. Improving our weakest positions on defense(SS, C, 3B, 1B, RF) There is overlap on these two lists and picking the top priorities seems obvious. The problem is Bogey and Vaz are beloved by Sox fans, and we just lost Betts. I think we stick with the improving Dalbec at 1B, Devers at 3B and Renfroe in RF. Maybe deal with those slots the following winter.

If we really want to make a significant change to our defense, we have to look at doing more than just one of the following things: 1) Replace Bogey at SS (trade him or move him to 3B or 2B). He's going to opt out after 2022. 2) Replace Vaz at catcher. I know many disagree, but I think we need a change, here. He's a FA after 2022, so take the $7M option and trade him? 3) Consider moving Devers to 1B or even 2B. Half is errors are throwing. His bat is too important to trade away. 4) Keep Kike in CF as much as possible, so that means adding a solid infield utility player to cover for Arroyo at 2B. Hope we do better than Marwin. 5) Improve RF defense. Yes, Renfroe's arm has made up for a lot of his errors, but it's also the non plays in RF that are hurting us. I'm not sure Verdugo is much of an improvement in RF, and losing Renfroe's bat would hurt. If Renfroe in LF and Verdugo in RF was better, I think Cora would have done that. (It's what I thought our OF was going to be, last winter.) I'm not sure we do this. I think we stick with Verdugo in LF (+), Kike in CF (++) and Renfroe in RF (-), but maybe we pick up a whiz defensive 4th OF'er (gasp, trade Duran?) 6) 1B defense has been a major issue, but I think we stick with Dalbec and hope his D continues to improve, there. I do think Devers could be a plus at 1B after just a short learning curve time, but Dalbec at 3B is a big gamble. He won't be our DH. So, is the best option to improve our D to trade Bogey, Vaz and Duran and fill the SS, C and utility IF and OF slots with plus defenders? C ______ 1B Dalbec/Devers 2B Arroyo + ______ 3B Devers? (Dalbec?) ______? SS _______ LF Verdugo CF Kike RF Renfroe + ________

21st in K%. When you face way more batters than any other teams, you'd expect more Ks. It does not mean we have better strike out pitchers. What team has the better K staff? A. 9 K's in 9 innings facing 36 batters B. 10 Ks in 9 innings facing 45 batters

Of course Brasier shares in the blame, but asking a guy like him to get 4 outs in an inning is pushing our luck.

Of course. We walk our fair share. We are 21st in K%. Opps lead the league in BAbip. 8th worst OBP against doesn't help either..

What's so crappy about our D, is the non plays and non error errors outnumber the official errors. YES, that's how bad our D is!

Not now, as in 2021, and Iggy's D is not what it used to be, if you are thinking 2022.

I was explaining why Schwarber seemed like he fit, when we added him. At the time, Dalbec sucked on offense and defense. The thought was, "How much worse can Schwarber be on defense than we've seen at 1B all year and especially in July?" He was clearly an upgrade on offense. Then, on the exact day of the trade deadline, Dalbec morphed into the best hitter in MLB and improved his defense 10 fold. Don't forget, Dalbec was losing us games with his defense before we got Schwarber. As it turned out, had we known Dalbec was going to morph, we'd have seen Schwarber was just duplicated value at DH.