moonslav59

Why is the 5 year sample the magic number? (Not saying it's not important, but so is last 3-4 years.) Last year 3.6 Baez 3.1 Taylor Last 2 3.5 Baez 4.5 Taylor Last 3 13.2 Baez 6.2 Taylor Last 4 18.6 Baez 9.3 Taylor

Taylor for $16M over Baez for $20?

They were hoping he relived his mega year (not aided by trash cans). .857 in 511 PAs just 2 years prior (2019) for Santana. .907 in 515 PAs in 2017 with trashcan-banging for Marwin. Marwin was better on D; Santana better on the base paths- all 6 times! Unlike some, here, I felt Cordero was given close to the amount of time he deserved, and with the minors not starting until early May, there weren't many other options. (Santana was hurt.) Santana's 127 PAs seemed like 30-50, too much. Marwin's 271 seemed like 100-150 too much. Duran's 112 about right Chavis's 82 about right (He did better after leaving.) Arauz's 75 not many other options

If Baez will really get $160M (I'm assuming 6-8 yrs), then Taylor looks like a better choice at $64M/4 or $75M/5. If Baez goes for $100M/5 like MLBTR projects, I'd like him more than Taylor. Once Baez starts getting above $115M/5, the balance flips... IMO.

Lots of teams are adding Rule 5 eligible players to their rosters. Drum roll...

True, but I do think we paid him around $1.5M (which is more than Sawamura). You are right. I do the addition by subtraction every year, and that pretty much proves someone replaces last years list with fresh faces. I agree replacing ERod will not be easy, and I hope we can not skimp. If the payroll is the issue, maybe we'll trade for someone better than Matz, Duffy and perhaps even Jon Gray (Montas?) I also think not mentioning Ottavino's 62 innings to be replaced is noteworthy. Maybe a healthy Houck & Brasier can eat them up. On the SP'er innings needing to be replaced, there is another factor that may help: more innings from Sale. Here is a more precise breakdown of innings lost by our staff- by SP & RP innings: SP 157 ERod 110 Richards 100 Perez 4 Peacock & Crawford Basically, it's about 370 innings. (If Houck stays in the pen, totally, we lose his 59 IP, too.) Let's say Sale goes from 43 to 183. That's 140. (ERod had 157, so maybe Sale can be viewed as taking over most of his 2021 role.) That leaves 240 IP: If Matz and Duffy (or Jon Gray/Frankie Montas + one from Matz/Duffy) can't replace the other 240 or 300 IP as well as the 2021 pitchers did, then it would be a significant failure on Bloom's part. RP 62 Ottavino (2nd on team) 37 Andriese (8th) 26 Richards (9th) 25 Robles (10th) 24 Rios (11th) 20 Workman (12th) 14 Perez (14th) 13 Brice (15) 29+ Weber, Feliz, Gonsalves, Brennan, Schrieber, Peacock, Espinal, Brewer, Ort. That's 250 innings out of 607 total! I can see Whitlock maybe going from 73 to 123 IP in relief, so that's 50. Houck being healthy might see him going from 10 to 70 (or 120, if we use him in long relief). That's another 50-100 IP in the pen. That leaves 100-150 IP for additions or increases: Brasier 12>52 Barnes 55>65 Taylor 48>58 DHern 40>60 Davis, Valdez, Bazardo 60>80 That's 80-90 more from within the system, barring any injuries. Add 1-2 RP'er who can give us 70-120 innings makes the most sense.

Heyman Shmeyman! $115/5 gets Baez.

How we let the clunker Marwin get 271 PAs is beyond me.

...and then we add Marwin, Cordero, Richards, Perez and Andriese. Maybe Matz, Duffy and Iggy will be just like them. Maybe we can say we replaced them with Kike, Renfroe & Whitlock.

On the offensive side, we will be replacing these PAs: 271 Marwin (.567 OPS) 168 Schwarber (.957) 136 Cordero (.497) 127 Santana (.597) 82 Chavis (.549) 75 Arauz (.643) 64 Iggy (.915) 48 Shaw (.843) 30+ scrubs like Lopez, Munoz & Motter. Overall, we are losing some very bad numbers that far outweigh the 3 in red.

Wait to judge until after we sign someone.

IP Replacing: 158 ERod (4.74 ERA) 137 Richards (4.87) 114 Perez (4.74) 62 Ottavino (4.21) 37 Andriese (6.03) 50+ Scrrubs like Workman, Brice, Robles, Rios, Weber, Peacock & Feliz As you can see Richards, Perez, Ottavino and Andriese total 350 IP to ERod's 158. Yes, ERod will be very difficult to replace. I'd rather have Jon Gray than Matz, but if we get Matz & Duffy (+ Graveman?), they might make up for losing ERod plus the others.

Yes, but it's not like Richards and Perez pitched zero innings, this year.

Whitlock replaces ERod Graveman replaces Whitlock (in the pen) Jon Gray or Matz replaces Richards Duffy replaces Perez Iggy replaces Marwin/Santana

I was only responding to what we might do, if we limit our spending.

When you compare them to ERod, yes, but don't forget Iggy > Marwin and Matz/Graveman > Richards/Perez/Andriese. It's kind of a close call.

Maybe Duffy is flying under the radar. Maybe we sign both.

Matz, Graveman and Iggy.

Biggest differentials between BA & BAbip by Sox players: 118 Cordero 103 Duran 76 Dalbec 73 Schwarber 63 Arroyo 54 JD 43 Vaz 41 Plawecki 38 Bogey & Verdugo 28 Devers & Kike 25 Renfroe Pitchers 109 Taylor 101 Barnes 96 Houck 89 Sale 88 ERod 81 Ottavino 77 DHern 74 Eovaldi & Whitlock 70 Andriese 56 Pivetta 53 Sawamura 47 Richards 45 Valdez 43 Perez

I trust Bloom to know who is good, despite his whiffs on Richards and Perez (and Andriese.)

Better protect him, today!!!!

It seemed like you were warning of the dangers of singing Semien by using the Cano example. I guess I misinterpreted your intentions. My bad. BTW, Steamer projects Semien to have his 3rd best career fWAR of 4.5.

Being pantless was his money-maker!

Currently, cots has us at an estimated $181M, including the player benefits and Price's $16M. If they lower the first tax line to $180M, we're already over, unless we sign nobody and let an arb player go. If we project getting to where last year's tax line was, we'd have about $30M to spend. If we plan on going over the first line but not the second (under the current rules), we'd have just under $50M to spend. Not knowing what the spending budget will be, makes it hard to try and guess who we might sign, and Bloom might be waiting to know the new system before signing any big names. Going by MLBTR's estimates on AAV contract costs, who would you suggest the Sox sign at these specific budgets? https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/top-50-mlb-free-agent-rankings.html $20M $40M $60M Without looking real hard at it, here's what I come up with off the top of my head: $20M 9 x 3 S Matz 8 x 2 A Cobb 3 x 3 Iggy $40M 14 x 4 Jon Gray 14 x 3 DeSclafini 9 x 3 Graveman 3 x 2 Iggy $60M 40 x 3 Scherzer 9 x 3 Graveman 7 x 2 Villar or 20 x 5 Baez 15 x 1 Greinke 14 x 4 J Gray 9 x 3 Graveman I know I could do better with time, but I just wanted to get some others to give their suggestions at each level.

Because he has 2 years, and they can "spread it out" by trading him next winter or at the deadline.