moonslav59

BTW, I counted 78 batters, so his K rate was 32%, which is fine to me, after missing more than a year. True, playing WSH/BAL/NYM helped, but every pitcher's stats are padded by weaker opps. He had 21 Ks in 54 PAs in those last 3 reg season games. That's a 39%!

Agreed, but that hill & flagpole was super weird. I'd say it's second to Fenway, now. Yankee stadiums short RF and super deep left-center field makes it a bit quirky, too.

Good point, but 31.3% K% is higher than his career and a very reasonable number for anyone's first games back after TJS. Did you expect a 34%+ rate in his first 10 games back?

But why? If we spend all that cash on Baez, we'll need every penny left over for the staff. (Arroyo should be okay as a utility man, and we have Arauz/Downs.)

It's not as freaky with the hill and flagpole in CF taken out.

No doubt, but did you expect him to be back to 100% game 1? Game 9? BTW, he has 4 Ks in 3.2 playoff innings and had 21 in his last 12.2 IP of 2021. If K rate is so telling, shouldn't that be a sign he's is regaining form? (To me, K rate is over rated.) Slae has 25 K's in his last 16.1 IP. That's a 13.8 K/9 rate.

One could argue our offense under achieved, this season. Only two guys (Kike & Renfroe) had career highs- both in their primes, and both had similar OPS numbers in previous years. Several players moving towards prime had better seasons before 2021. Verdugo, Vaz, Marwin, Cordero, Santana, and to some extent Bogey and Devers were all expected to do better than they did.

Nobody believed me when I said every AL team had major flaws. I should have said every MLB team had them.

The O's offense was doing pretty well in the last 2 months.

No doubt, it's a huge risk, but so is signing Stroman to 6-7 years. I think the short contract risks are better. Personally, I'd offer ERod the QO, and if he takes it, look for a $12-15M pitcher. If he says no, look for a $30M Scherzer or two for $35M + Iggy.

I would think, if we sign Semien or Baez, we'd pass on Iggy and hope Arrojo can be the utility guy. Maybe he can stay healthy sitting on the bench.

It's hard enough getting good results from signing $20-30M pitchers. If we sign 3-4 pitchers for $5-12M each, we might end up with more pitchers like Richards, Perez, Sawamura and Andriese.

Not sure we can count on Arroyo to go 100 games at 2B, let alone 150. Yes, in theory, we can replace 3 starters with Sale, Houck & Whitlock, but then we have some gaping holes in an already shaky pen. (Losing Ottavino is not addition by subtraction.)

That's why they'd go for less years.

Think of the candy that could be bought with the savings!

Maybe yes- maybe no. It's hard to get definitive over such a small sample size. We'll know more by next May or June.

This just shows how in baseball, anyone can win (or lose).

Nice to see Joc Pederson bite his old team in the ass. Go Braves!!!!

I'd trade Richards and Perez for Patkin and a few Million.

You said it better than I. Yes, we don't need to spend $60M to try and be a juggernaut, I think we can improve by spending just $30-40M. Much of the salary we lose can be viewed as addition by subtraction. Bloom already built up the 40 man depth and adding 4-5 Rule 5 protectees should further that improvement, so we should actually be limited to just signing 3-5 free agents, unless we trade some players. Last winter, we signed 10 with about $40M. This prettymuch forces quality over quantity. Just what I like!

Okay, let's take a closer look at this myth that most of our batters had career or near career seasons. I'm going to break it down into 3 groups of players: 1) Top 8 players by PAs (over 275- actually also over 450) OPS Player PAs .890 Devers 664 (.847 career, .884 last 2 yrs, .916 in 2019) .867 JD Martinez 634 (.881 career, .870 last 2 yrs, 2 seasons over 1.000 in ’17 & ’18) .863 Bogaerts 603 (.812 career, .921 last 2, 3 seasons higher last 3 seasons) .777 Verdugo 604 (.791 career, .827 last 2, 2 seasons higher) .786 Kike 585 (.748 career, .707 last 2, 2 seasons higher ’18 & ’15) .816 Renfroe 572 (.786 career, .749 last 2, was at .805 in ’18) .659 Vazquez 498 (.692 career, .798 last 2, 3 seasons higher) .792 Dalbec 453 (.819 career, .959 in 2020) 4 of the 8 did better than their career OPS. 3 of 8 did better than their 2019-2020 combined OPS. 1 of 8 had a career high OPS. (5 had 2 or more other better seasons) 2) 7 Players with 100-275 PAs .567 Marwin 271 (.717 career, .698 last 2, every season better ‘14>’20) .769 Arroyo 181 (.690 career, .710 last 2, no years better) .737 Plawecki 173 (.667 career, .707 last 2, 2 seasons better ‘20 & ’17) .957 Schwarber 168 (.836 career, .825 last 2, no seasons better) .497 Cordero 136 (.663 career, ,773 last 2, all 4 seasons better) .597 Santana 127 (.709 career, .821 last 2, 5 seasons better) .578 Chavis 112 (.714 career, .728 last 2, ,857 in PIT after trade) 3 of 7 had an OPS higher than their career OPS. 3 of 7 did better than 2019-2020 combined OPS. 2 of 7 had career highs (Schwarber & Arroyo with aout 350 PAs combined- way less than the rest.) Marwin, Cordero & Santana were god awful and had more PAs than Schwarber, Iggy & Shaw combined. 3) 3 Players with 40-75 PAs .643 Arauz 75 (.644 career, .644 last year, 1 better) .915 Iggy 64 (.696 career, .775 last 2, .956 in 2020 was better) .843 Shaw 48 (.762 career, .619 last 2, 1 season better & .808 ‘15>’18) 2 of 3 beat career OPS. 2 of 3 beat '19-'20 combined 0 of 3 had career best season in 2021. Okay, so out of the major players, Kike and Renfroe had "career years. Schwarber and Arroyo did, too, but many players with more PAs than them did not even come close. Only 6 out of the top 15 PA players beat their 2019-2020 combined OPS. That's hardly out of the ordinary. When you look at the ages of many of those 15 players, you'd expect an improvement, not a decline. Myth busted. I'll do pitching, soon. Trust me, it ain't any better.

He'd sure look good in a Sox uniform.

ERA in small sample sizes are not good gauges. I'm not sure even Cora knows who starts game 5. (It might be Pivetta or Houck.)

I don't think we want to sign a pitcher to 6 or 7 years, and if we did, I don't think his name is Stroman. I think we make a strong play for Scherzer on a short term deal, end if we miss out, we go for another older pitcher (Verlander or Kershaw.) We may also go for a #3-4 type, but that depends on our plans for Houck & Whitlock. My guess is one is a starter.

If we offer him a QO and he refuses it, based on the idea he can get more elsewhere and doesn't want a season to reset his value, then we get a comp draft pick and have his $18M to spend on someone else.