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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    For about a year, I have been saying the spending we did last winter was going to put us to the test with out future budget. I'm still not sure we are looking to reset this year, but if not this year than almost certainly next year we will. Next year's FA market is much better, and we have $20M coming off the books in Buch and Young, so it makes sense to try to reset this winter. from within the system. It will be tough to try and fill all our needs with just about $10M of spending space, so we may have to get creative or pray we get some in system solutions
  2. moonslav59
    He's a switch hitter. Yeah, it makes sense playing in NY would help his HR numbers more than Fenway, as there are more righties in the league than lefties, but the facts say otherwise. He has more HRs per PA at Fenway. I'm not saying past numbers project future ones, but I think Fenway would be a nice park for any hitter like Beltran to make his home park.
  3. moonslav59
    Alvarez is not the only one. We really need a LH'd platoon with Young. Moss:.791 career vs RHPs but .828 in 2016) If you pro-rate his 2016 numbers vs RHPs to 650 PAs: .223 47 98 (.303 OBP) Kinda like Chris Carter, but Carter can hit both sides about like that: 2016 prorated to 650 vs RHPs: .222 38 84 (.316 OBP) vs LHPs: .224 48 125 (.338 OBP) Adam Lind: .849 OPS vs RHPs and can play 1B or LF. His .589 OPS vs LHPs is atrocious! Morrison's .762 career splits vs RHPs is not what we need. He's 29, so maybe there's a chance of upside. 1B/3B P Alvarez .801 vs RHPs 1B/OF Moreland .778 career vs RHPs 1B LaRoche .831 1B Morneau .886 (.717 in 2016)
  4. moonslav59
    I wouldn't pay EE what he will get, even if we didn't lose a draft pick.
  5. moonslav59
    Carson Smith may not be back until July or August. Ross has been consistent. Kelly and Barnes are promising but huge question marks. I'm not saying this to you, but anyone who thinks we can lose Ziegler, Uehara and Tazawa without replacing them with 1 very goos set-up man or two good pen arms is asking for trouble. The league is moving towards stronger and stronger pens. We're going backwards by possibly not acting on our pen in a serious manner.
  6. moonslav59
    That's the point. If we wait, and he flops, then we don't get a Sale type for him. I wouldn't think about trading Moncada, if we didn't have Devers. I know the risk, but Sale is a known commodity and a sure ace.
  7. moonslav59
    Word is the CWS wanted Dansby Swanson and won't take Ozzie Albies instead. I'm not sure what else is wanted as part of the package, but I have to think Moncada would be somewhat equal to Swanson. Sale's $6.5M luxury tax cost is just what the Sox need. We could then afford to trade Buch, assuming we don't lose one of our 6 starters in the trade. We save $7M by picking up Sale and trading Buch. That gives us ~$17M to sign someone like Pedro Alvarez or Adam Lind plus Ziegler or a Uehara types.
  8. moonslav59
    MLBTR reports Sox are interested in Pedro Alvarez... The powerful Alvarez hit .249/.322/.504 with 22 home runs in 376 plate appearances with Baltimore, and recorded the majors’ 20th-highest ISO (.255) among those with at least 350 PAs.
  9. moonslav59
    The reason the Red Sox are in bad shape cap-wise is bad deals like Pablo Sandoval... Doesn't $31M for a flawed ace and $13m for a flawed closer have a little bit to do with also? Those two are 20% of our player payroll budget.
  10. moonslav59
    If we sign a right hander like Holliday, I'll be might be done with DD. Seriously. I've disagreed with his major moves so far, but I've not been saying he should be canned. He's chosen to win now, but Holliday would be a huge mistake for a team with a limited winter spending budget.
  11. moonslav59
    Re the bullpen: right now we are down Uehara and Ziegler from the pen that ended last season, so we have to add 2 pretty good relievers just to get back to that. BINGO
  12. moonslav59
    Good point. Yes 4 out of the top 6 catcher hitting teams made the playoffs, but it was also 4 of the top 13 teams made the playoffs. That's 31%. 5 of the top 17 made the playoffs. In theory, 5 out of 15 should make it, if it was randon. Since 10 out of 30 teams make the playoffs, which is 33%, then there's not much of a correlation between having a plus hitting catching and making the playoffs. Slight, but not major.
  13. moonslav59
    It might help to glance at the numbers before you make statements like this. Nobody is denying he's declined as he aged. Nobody is like Papi. Beltran: .836 Yankee Stadium (actually lower than his career OPS) .932 Fenway Park
  14. moonslav59
    If he's healthy and doing well, bot significant "ifs", he could start 21-33, but why all of a sudden, do people believe he's going to come through? What has changed? Let some other team pay for the upside potential vs disappointment gamble.
  15. moonslav59
    I totally get your concerns. They are valid. However, let's not pretend our bullpen was good last year, just because we ended the season doing well. Our pen was mediocre at best this year, and we are losing Ziegler, Uehara and Tazawa. To me, our pen is more important than out 6th starter. Putting so much trust in Kelly, Barnes, Ross and even to some extent Kimbrel is a big mistake. Now, maybe we won't look to stay under the luxury limit this year, We may look to reset next year, but assuming we are trying this year, we won't be able to totally repair the pen with just $10M, or we'll have to trade something very good to get a low cost good pen arm. There are ways to keep Buch and build the pen, but it's going to cost us.
  16. moonslav59
    .830 is a very good year also, and his PAs have shown no sign of "breaking down". His career OPS is .845. He's been within .037 of his career number in 3 of his last 4 years. I'm not saying he's not due for a sharp decline soon, but I don't agree that he's been sub par in 3 of his last 4 seasons. It's more like he's been right around his "par" in 4 of his last 5 seasons. Nobody is expecting his prime year numbers next year. The expectation would be somewhere over .800 and 550+ PAs as mainly a DH.
  17. moonslav59
    His "subpar" is better than what we have. .842 2012 619 PAs .830 2013 600 PAs .703 2014 449 PAs .808 2015 531 PAs .850 2016 593 PAs I see more PAs this year than any year since 2013. I see his highest OPS in the last 5 seasons. If that's breaking down, sign me up!
  18. moonslav59
    One could say the same about 38 ans 39 year olds.
  19. moonslav59
    Maybe I'm wrong about Buch's one year risk of more than $13.5M value to another team. If I am, then we won't get much in return, but even if we just get a decent far away prospect, adding Buch's $13.5M to the budget would be enough to add 2-3 pieces we need more than a $13.5M sixth starter.
  20. moonslav59
    I'm not expecting a number two for Buch. Maybe we can add Hembree or Abad (out of options) and improve the return.
  21. moonslav59
    Depending on how much the RP'er costs, you're right. $16M for Beltran -$13.5M could have just cost us $3.5M. I figure we have about $10M to stay under the limit, so we'd still have $6.5M to spend. Maybe a little goes to whatever the RP'er we get back makes over minimum, and the rest could maybe sign Ziegler or Uehara.
  22. moonslav59
    My guess is we will need at least 25 starts beyond our top 5 starters, but $13.5M is still too much to pay, when we have too many other needs and not enough luxury space to fill them all.
  23. moonslav59
    Singing to the choir. I've been saying all along, we should take Buch's option and trade him. Many said we weren't going to be salary stressed. Some said we need Buch, even though half the fans wanted to cut him this year. Sure, we're a better team with Buch, but for $13,5M we can do better.
  24. moonslav59
    Maybe Moon can do this just for major market teams. That's too much research for me to do on an issue that does not really concern me much. It would be interesting to see, but some contracts have to do with timing not so much focus by upper management. I have our luxury tax number at about $185M, bus some of that is the player pension cost, so out 40 man roster salaries come to about $173M. $31M Price $20.6M Porcello $13.5M Buchholz Just our top paid SP'ers account for 32% of our payroll budget and is more than some team's whole budget.
  25. moonslav59
    Is our starting rotation depth really any worse than other teams? What makes you think 5 of 6 wont' be ready to start the season? (Wright is the only one that finished on the disable list) If above is true, why the concern? While I agree starting depth is not near our top priority, one just has to look at Sox recent history to feel concern. Last year, we ended up using our 10th starter (O'Sullivan) by early May! 1) Price 2) Porcello 3) ERod (got hurt) 4) Buchholz (sucked early) 5) Kelly (sucked-demoted to pen) 6) Wright 7) Owens (sucked) 8) Elias (sucked) 9) Johnson (emotional issues) 10) O'Sullivan started 4 games in May. Then, we had to trade for Pomeranz to come up with 5 starters! In 2015, we used 12 starters, including 8 with 9 or more starts.
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