moonslav59

But the plan is to find a cheap but good closer and set-up- maybe via trade.

Maybe the whole obsession with going overboard to assign blame is the root of the problem. I get how finding who or what went wrong enables a path to corrections, but the blame game has gotten out of hand, IMO. (Plus, as you pointed out, it's never "my fault."

I think expecting injuries should have been part of the plan, but no GM plans for their best 5 out of 6 starters to be on the IL at the same time. (BTW, there was talk, in March, that maybe Paxton would be ready by July/Aug, or the time Wacha came off his rehab.

This is one reason I chose those 2 slots to "let be." However, I also agree on not spending big money or prospect capital on upgrading those two slots. To me, our most pressing needs are (in order): 1. CF 2. Ace or solid #2 type 3. 2B/SS T4. C T4. RF/DH 6. Closer/solid set-up for Houck 7. SP depth 8. 1B/DH 9. Pen depth 10. OF depth

Maybe, the bad luck trend has run dry.

Hmm....

This was June 19th. My post was made in jest- someone called it "trolling," but I did think the Yankee pitching staff had been playing over their heads. I did not expect this steep of a decline: Pre 6/19 > post 6/19 ERA: 3.29 (85 ERA-) > 3.86 (100) xFIP 3.60> 3.79 WHIP 1.11>1.17 K/BB 3.4> 3.1 Hardly a "slump," but the ERA- sure took a major hit.

Not for us.

I disagree. It was the one plus from the Renfroe trade (prospects pending.) JBJ: Second best UZR/150 out of all RF'ers with 500+ innings in RF. T3 in DRS.

Good analogy. (I wasn't dissing Devers. I loved the kid from year one. I was just saying that some other Sox prospects had similar or better numbers at those ages, especially at A- and A+ ball, and did not turn out as good.)

The thing is, we improved at SS and 3B without changing who we had. We greatly improved 2B defense with Story. We greatly improved RF defense with JBJ. Our 1B defense was atrocious. Our CF defense suffered with Kike's injury. Our LF defense was maybe the same as 2021- not great/not horrible. I won't get into catcher D. Obviously, something went wrong along the way to improving D.

With the club option for 2023, don't we want to see if he's got something left? The way I read the option is that Paxton can take $4M or the Sox have to give him $13M x 2 for '23 and '24. We need to know a bit more, right?

Family Dollar

You don't see adding Hosmer, a real 1Bman, and Pham, the RH'd OF bat we've craved all year might have outweighed the Vaz to McGuire downgrade? To me, trading Diekman was an addition by subtraction, despite DHern's numbers, since the trade. We will replace him going forward. Pham and Hosmer add a lot to this team, even in mainly support roles. Maybe this McGuire kid ends up doing better than Vaz, not just this year, but going forward and at a much lower cost.

How many GMs can say, after a deadline, can say they improved the now and the future at the same time? Yes, it wasn't by much, but it seemed he walked the fine line and did both. I'm thinking he improved the future by more than the now. Hosmer for free for 2.3 years was a likely boost to the future, even if just as depth. Adding Pham, who has an option might help more next year than this season. The McGuire deal can only be a break even or winner, as Diekman was DFA material. We gave up Groome, but the prospects we ended up getting E Valdez and W Abreu, which to me, have much more promise. Valdez might be our starting 2Bman or DH, next season.

That's how I see it. The Yanks got hit hard with injuries, last year, so using it as an excuse is a bit contradictory, but still, it is what it is.

It was a group effort, and the SP'ers and defense played into some of our losses. The whole pen blew the start of the season has been a false flag all along. Here is a game by game look from opening day to game 19: L 6-5 NYY: Sure, the pen let up a run in the 9th and a ghost runner in the 10th, but they outpitched Nate. Nate 5 IP 5H 3ER 1BB 7K Pen 5 IP 4H 1ER 2BB 8K People remember the pen "blowing" the game, BUT THEY ACTUALLY PITCHED WELL. L 4-2: The offense could be blamed. The SP maybe second. The pen did great. Pivetta 5.2 4 4 3 4 Pen 2.1 0 0 0 1 Win 4-3: Who gets the most credit? IMO, the pen! Houck 3.1 6 3 3 3 Pen 5.2 5 0 1 6 L 3-1 DET: Offense and Pen to blame. 4 hit by Manning. Wacha did his share 4.1 2 1 3 4 Pen 3.9 6 2 0 6 W5-3: Offense did enough. Pen out-pitched the starter by a lot: Hill 4.1 5 3 1 4 Pen 4.2 0 0 1 2, including 4 no hit IP by Whitlock W 9-7: The starter outpitched the pen, but no blown saves, and the offense &Nate won this one. Nate 5.0 4 2 1 6 Pen 4.0 7 5 2 6 L 8-4 MIN Looks like a pretty even blame on the O & SP'er, and while the pen did not do great, they did better than the other areas. 4 runs scored Pivetta 2 5 4 2 2 Pen 7 4 4 6 11 W 4-0 Min Off did okay ? Houck pitched more than half, but the pen allowed no runs. Houck 5.2 2 0 3 4 Pen 3.1 3 0 1 5 W8-1 MIN O did great Wacha did great 5 IP 1H 0ER 2BB 5 K Pen 4.0 3 1 1 5 (No blame on pen) L 8-3 Min ) did not do well- pitching was equally bad: Hill 4.2 6 4 2 2 Pen 4.1 3 4 5 4 We were never closer than down 4-2, so no pen dramatics. W2-1 TOR No help from O. Pen out-pitched Nate, although both did great: Nate 4.2 7 1 1 6 Pen 4.1 1 0 0 3 (1 hit/0 BB relief over 4.1 in tight game) I'd say Pen won the game. L 6-1 TOR O sucked- Pivetta sucked. Pen did very well, again! Pivetta 4.0 7 5 4 4 Pen 5.0 2 1 1 7 L3-2 TOR: O sucked, SP worse than pen Houck 5.0 3 2 1 4 Pen 4.0 6 1 1 4 W4-3 TBR: O was okay, I guess. Wacha did well- the pen did slightly better, again! Wacha 5.0 3 2 2 3 Pen 4.0 3 0 3 4 We have to get to game 15 to see the pen lose the game, but really, it was the defense. The O did poorly, too. This was the game Story made the 2 out error in the 10th allowing the inning to continue and then 2 ERs to score L3-2 TBR in 10 innings (scoreless after 9!) Whitlock 4.0 1 0 0 7 Pen 5.2 2 0 2 7 Hard to blame the pen, although Robles let up the dinger after the error. L 5-2 TBR: Offense to blame, but the pen first. Hill 4.0 4 0 3 1 Pen 4.0 5 5 1 2 This is probably the first game, where the pen might be blamed the most. (Game 16!) L 6-2 TOR: I say O to blame, but the pen the most. Nate 7.0 5 2 0 5 Pen 1.0 5 4 0 1 (second pen blame loss in 17 gms) L 6-5 TOR: Another pen loss, but 3 ER in 5 IP is not horrific. (Diekman meltdown) Pivetta 4.2 3 2 4 6 Pen 5.0 5 3 2 4 W 7-1 O did well, pen slightly outpitched SP Call it dead even on credit. Wacha 6.0 4 1 2 5 Pen 3.0 1 0 0 3 L 1-0 TOR has to be on the D and O. Pen pitched 5 shut out innings. Whitlock 3.0 4 0 2 2 (unearned run) 5.0 1 0 1 3 Three bad pen games in a row in those first 20 or so games, but certainly the pen was not the major reason we started out so slowly.

The worst part was seeing Nate, Wacha and Hill all go out at the same time. Nate: Mid June to July 15 Wacha: End of June to Aug 14 Hill: Early July to Aug 3 Having to go 3 deep into your farm/depth chart at the same time you were expecting Sale back, really messed everything up.

He might be at the age where he goes for the long term biggest contract he can get over a possible QO. He's going to be 30 on opening day, and his OBP and OPS+ numbers are significantly lower, this season.

Let's assume he has $90M to spend. Let's agree he has 7-8 sure slots to fill. I think he trades to fill one, lets the kids or in system players fill 2, and adds 4-5 moderate to big name FAs. Which slots does he leave to the current players/prospects? Which slot does he trade for (and maybe trade away?) Which slots does he sign FAs to fill. Here's a breakdown on what we have in the system, already, at each high need slot: SP1/2: Sale/Paxton/Pivetta (I'm not seeing it.) CF: Duran/Rafaela (Nope) 2B (if Story plays SS): E Valdez/Arroyo/Downs (maybe?) SS (if Story plays 2B): Downs (Nope) C: McGuire/Wong/RHern/Cottam (someone might get traded away, here) RF: Verdugo/Refsnyder (assuming we add a CF'er and Duran/Pham play LF) (Not liking this, much.) 1B: Hosmer/Casas/Dalbec/EValdez? (This might be the position we let ride, yet again.) Closer: Houck/Whitlock (Depending on who might be a starter) My guess is, we let 1B and Closer go to in-system players and work to upgrade or break even at the other 5-6 slots.

Flashpoint, because it will be his 4th season and he should have about $90M to spend. Even putting off the Devers extension a year will still make this winter his defining moment. I doubt he spends it all on 1 year deals, so he'll never have close to this much winter spending, again. We lose some deadwood, especially Price's money, once and for all, but we also may lose some very tough players to replace, and replacing some by re-signing them may prove to be the wrong decision. He has to keep fans interested and excited. If he can't do that with $90M, I think his time in Boston will be limited. He still has a decent core to work with, and some promising young players that are ML ready or already proven. He has to choose what positions to hand to the youth and what positions to fill with outsiders. It's not an easy call. More importantly, I think, the number one priority will still be beyond 2023. That makes walking the tightrope even harder. My guess is he signs a few one year players to bridge to the youth movements e thinks are 0-1 years away from fruition, but He'll choose one or two slots to block or close up for prospects. That might coincide with him trading said "blocked" prospects to fill another hole, somewhere else. Yes, I do think he makes one big splash trade, and not the Beni, JBJ, Ottavino kind, where he gets prospects- included. This time, I think he gives up some prospects for a controllable key player for our future. That's why I call it his flashpoint offseason.

I remember, I came up with some convoluted way we could find enough playing time- for everyone, had we added Schwarber and kept JD, but it involved too many revolving doors at several positions. Anyway, Schwarber is doing okay, but not really all that great for his money.

I think the idea was that Wacha or Hill could carry the load until Sale and Paxton returned, and when both returned, we might move one to the pen, assuming all 6 were every healthy at the same time (fat chance). They both nearly made it, and if Sale had not broke his finger, the gaps would not have been all that great. The problem was the math. You got Nate & Nick. That makes 1+1+1+1= 5. Who was going to be the 5th starter until Sale or Pivetta came back? We knew they'd both be out until min June at the very earliest, and most likely mid July to early August. Had we picked up a 5th starter, or lucked onto Crawford earlier than we did, then Houck and Whitlock would have been in the pen, at least until we started seeing our rotation fall apart, all at once. (By then, Wink, Seabold and Bello were ready to give it a try, so maybe even then, they could have stayed in the pen.) The pen has been fine with no additions, since Houck and Whitlock both returned, together. Not great but good enough, for the most part. Losing Nate, Wacha and Hill to free agency, and Sale's health even more in question than ever before, and WTF with Paxton, anyway? I think the writing is on the wall for Whitlock to start, next year. Who knows? We have a bunch of kids that may impress down the stretch and early next season: Bello, Crawford, Wink, Mata, Seabold and maybe even Murphy or Walter. German may give a nice boost to the pen, as well.

ETAs according to soxprospects.com I count 7 players who could hold key roles on the 2023 26 man roster. 2022 3. Bello 9. Winckowski 12. Seabold 17. Wong 2023 2. Casas 6. Mata 7. Walter 11. Murphy 16. E Valdez 30. F German 2024 1. Mayer 4. Yorke 8. Rafaela 15. Ward 21. Lugo 26. W Abreu 28. Binelas 29. Jimenez 2025> 5. Bleis 10. Romero 13. Paulino 14. Anthony 18, Jordan 19. Gonzalez 20. Coffey 22. Hickey 25. Kavadas 24. Perales 27. Bonaci The list looks nicely balanced, assuming our top prospects amount to something special, and we have a lot of interesting talent becoming ML ready by the end of 2023. We also have some very talented players about to be added to the 40 for Rule 5. 10 players- should be ready by 2023 or were already called up. Plus, there is no Noah Song or RHern on this top 30 list- both might contribute, someday.

When you consider some of the pitchers we've had to reach way down on the depth chart to use a s starters and RP'ers, one could say our numbers are better than expected, and ERA ain't everything, I might add. Take Brasier, for example: he's got a 5.20 ERA but one of the team's best FIP's at 3.21. Anyway, check out these IP numbers from guys listed at maybe 15th to 25th on our pre-season depth chart: Many did much better than those who went on the IL or stunk up the place.) IP Pitcher ERA 65 Cutter 4.18 56 Wink 4.69 47 Schreiber 1.91 31 Danish 4.02 25 Robles 5.84 17 Bello 8.47 16 Valdez 4.41 15 Ort 9.00 11 Seabold 11.91 (actually one of the first farm hands called up: oops!) 7 DHern 3 Feliz 2.70 That's about 280 IP or about 27% of all IP'd by Sox pitchers!