moonslav59

Positional Sox OPS .841 3B (128 OPS+) .836 SS (142) .744 DH (109) .727 2B (107) .710 C (114) .694 LF (92) .669 CF (95) .658 1B (76) .647 RF (84) By Age: .766 Ages 25- .731 Ages 26-30 .700 Ages 31-35 (Before Today.)

Here are the soxprospects.com summations on prospects we may see in 2024: C- Ronaldo Hernandez Potential up-and-down, bat-first catcher. Ceiling of an everyday catcher if he improves his defense and approach, but the likelihood of that happening is low. Type of defensive profile that could really benefit from robot umps. Power and arm are carrying tools, but questions about his approach, hit tool, and defensive profile cloud his future projection. Needs to improve hit profile to project as a major leaguer if defense stays as is. If he can even develop into a fringe-average defender with a below-average hit tool, could be an everyday player given his power and arm. Connor Wong Potential MLB backup or up-and-down catcher. Ceiling of a platoon catcher who will have a season or two of starter-level production. Has already earned the trust of the organization as the third catcher on the 40-man roster, but has yet to get much run in the majors. Will have to make more contact. Power tool is better than hit right now, and he needs refinement at the plate. Has improved defense to the point that he should be able to handle that side of things in some role. 1B Tristan Casas Potential everyday regular. Ceiling of an all-star capable of hitting for both average and significant power. Looks the part of a prototypical bat-first first baseman capable of anchoring a lineup. Projects to add some value defensively at first base as well. Hit tool still needs development. Will have to ensure the swing-and-miss in his game does not impact his ability to tap into his power. Strong instincts and feel for the game. Great work ethic and strong clubhouse presence. Student of the game, really looks to hone his craft. 2B/DH Enmanuel Valdez Potential bat-first bench player. Ceiling of a bat-first utility player. Has moved around the diamond, but that is driven by him being below-average defensively and trying to find where he will best fit rather than true versatility. Will have to hit to hold value given defensive limitations. Has taken major strides at the plate in 2022; now has a chance to develop into at least a platoon bench bat and potentially more. SS Jeter Downs Potential emergency utility infielder. Ceiling of fringe-utility infielder who struggles to hold down a consistent role and jumps from team to team. Future potential is largely tied to development of his hit tool. Has really struggled to make contact in the high minors, especially on velocity. May have been promoted to Triple-A a bit too aggressively after the lost 2020 season given his limited exposure to Double-A. If he can develop even a below-average hit tool, has the chance to carve out a major league role, but even that is a question after prolonged struggles in Triple-A. Other tools are all about average, and he lacks another carrying tool if his hit tool does not develop. Utility Ceddanne Rafaela Potential bench utility player. Ceiling of an everyday regular who adds considerable value on defense and also contributes some at the plate. Defensive ability and versatility and speed give him a high floor. Could be a plus defender at every position except catcher and first base. Bat lags behind, but has improved considerably in 2022. Approach is what holds him back now and will determine his ultimate value at the plate. DH/1B Nick Kavadas Potential up-and-down bench bat. Ceiling of a platoon designated hitter. Value is solely tied up in his bat. Shows tremendous ability to impact the baseball along with an advanced feel for the strike zone and finding his pitch, but also has swing-and-miss in his game. Bat path allows him to drive the ball with loft, but it remains unclear how it will play against more advanced pitching. Profile suggested a player likely to post strong performance numbers in the low minors, which came to fruition, but true test will come in Double-A and above. Not a strong defender, unclear how glove will play at first base. Will have to hit to overcome defense and speed deficiencies.

Pretty much, although run support and strength of opponents plays into Wins and Losses, too.

The thing is, we do not need a .700+ OPS from him to be a plus, so anything near or above that is gravy.

Wong and RHern, more or less, rotated between C and DH at AAA, this year. Ronaldo's rankings have slipped, a lot, over the last 2 years, but his bat looks pretty good for a catcher. I'm not sure how his defense rates. soxprospects has this... Does not look comfortable behind the plate. Does not move well and really struggles with framing and receiving. Not a natural catcher, struggles with his glove position and getting down quickly to block balls in the dirt. Lack of mobility limits potential for improvement in the future. Potential below-average defensive profile. Arm: Plus-plus arm. Does a good job controlling the running game. Arm is a weapon. Summation: Potential up-and-down, bat-first catcher. Ceiling of an everyday catcher if he improves his defense and approach, but the likelihood of that happening is low. Type of defensive profile that could really benefit from robot umps. Power and arm are carrying tools, but questions about his approach, hit tool, and defensive profile cloud his future projection. Needs to improve hit profile to project as a major leaguer if defense stays as is. If he can even develop into a fringe-average defender with a below-average hit tool, could be an everyday player given his power and arm.

The team is 13-16 in his starts, this year, and... 16-14 in 2021 2-0 in 2020 31-30 overall Team record from 2020-2022: 186-181

Hamilton stole his 70th base of the season. He's also had 2 hits and has really been brining up his BA and OPS.

I don't think the shift on RH'd batters will be any or much different, at all. The 2Bman can still shade far towards 2B under the new rule.

The usual winning formula was based on 2 aces and not much missed time by the top 4-5 starters. 2004: Pedro & Schill (top 5 starters had 29+ GS'd) 2007: Beckett & Schill (top 5 starters had 23+ GS'd and Lester had 11) 2013: Lester & Lackey (top 4 starters had 29+ GS'd and Buch 16/Peavy 10) 2018: Sale & Price -plus Porcello 103 ERA+), ERod (116) and Nate (133) (top 4 starters with 27 GS'd and Nate 11, Pom 11, BJohnson 13, Velazquez 8)

True. That's the beauty in advanced stats like WAR. Bogey's D and OBP have made up for the declining power.

I'd have b een happy to DFA Diekman and pay the team adding him all but min salary for the rest of '23 and all of '24. Getting McGuire for Diekman looks like a very nice trade. He's even done better than Vaz- post deadline.

He compares very favorably against most team's number 3s and even some #2s. He's one of the best #4s in MLB over the past 2 years. There may be 3 or 4 teams with an equal or better 5 starter. This might be a crude and flawed way of ranking SP'ers, but I think it is helpful when giving comparative value to SP'er. From 2021-2022, there have been 146 SP'er with 120+ IP. That's about 5 per team (30 teams x 5= 150.) One could argue 1-30 ate #1s, 31-60 are #2s and so on. Here is where Pivetta ranks in some key categories: 31. IP at 315 62. fWAR at 3.9 74. K-BB% at 15% 81. SIERA at 4.17 95. xFIP at 4.26 96. ERA- at 106 100. WHIP at 1.32 Ranked categories 1 in high #2 (IP) 3 in #3 (fWAR, K-BB% and SIERA) 3 in upper #4 (ERA-, WHIP and xFIP) In terms of comparative analysis, he looks like a solid #3. If he ends up our #4, I'd be fine with him there and maybe Bello, Paxton, Houck or Whitlock (Mata?) as the #5. If he ends up our #5, he should b e one of the best #5s in MLB.

If we bring Wacha back, we might be lucky to add one ace. 1. Ace 2. Wacha 3. Sale/Paxton 4. Pivetta 5. Bello (Whitlock or Houck)

Dalbec has homered twice, again, today. (Heating up, too late, this year.) Mata has allowed 9 hits and 0 BBs in 5 IP (1 ER & 7Ks).

I seriously doubt we fill every slot that looks like improvement is needed. Those positions might include: SP SP SP Closer RP 2B/SS RF 1B/DH C I think the plan will be to choose the positions we have the most faith in the existing players and then fill the others through free agency or trade. Those might include: RF, 2B/SS, SP, RP RP, at minimum, IMO.

I seriously doubt we bring Vaz back. I do not want JD back either. No disrespect. The guy was key to our 2018 ring. Best wishes, elsewhere.

I've been one of the main voices that stated Bogey's decline in power, but I and as far as I know anyone else have ever said the word "demise." His power and RBI numbers dipped, significantly. His SLG has declined steadily since 2019. The RBI dip was sudden, and it appears to not be related to less men on base or in scoring position. PAs and RBI 2022 293 PAs w Men on Base/ 61 RBI (25 BB) 166 PAs w RISP/ 59 RBI (13 BB) 2021 288 PAS Men on/ 66 RBI (34 RBI) 161 PAs w RISP/ 55 RBI (16 BB) 2019 327 PAs Men on/ 98 RBI (38 BB) 191 PAs RISP/ 80 RBI (29 BB(

How about SLG%? .555 in 2019 .502 in 2020 .493 in 2021 .470 in 2022, which has been rising since many of the statements were made about his declining power. It was at .454 on August 1st and dipped to .436 on AUG 20th. The statements made back in August were backed by more evidence than just lower HR totals. The rise in singles and BA raises the SLG%, too without showing "power."

No, I have switched to saying Bogey's power and RBIs declined. I should not leave out Devers as an exception for declining returning vets. Vaz and Devers did not decline. Bogey's OPS+ has not declined, and he has brought it up since mid August, too. His defense improved, so overall, he did not technically decline, but the lack of RBIs was significant. So, Vaz, Devers and Bogey did not decline. Houck and Whitlock did about the same. Every other returning player declined, and many were not aging vets. Many got hurt and were returning from injuries for much of the season.

When you look at who has come up from the farm over the last decade or more, and how well they did, it's pretty shocking to see the drop off in quantity and quality. To not link this to our drop off in ML performance is missing something vital. Some carry- over homegrown players before 2004: Nomar, Nixon, B Arroyo, Daubach. Note: prospects traded before reaching MLB are not listed. (This is not a complete list.) 2004: Youkilis 2005: Papelbon, Delcarmen, Shoppach, Cla Meredith 2006: Lester, Pedroia, David Murphy, K Gabbard 2007: Ellsbury, Buchholz, Brandon Moss 2008: Lowrie, Masterson 2009: Josh Reddick, D Bard 2010: Doubront, D Nava, R Kalish 2011: Iggy, K Weiland, Lavarnway 2012: 2013: Bogaerts, JBJ, Alex Wilson, Workman 2014: Betts, Vazquez, Barnes, Rusney Castillo, A Ranaudo 2015: ERod (traded for as a prospect), T Shaw, Swihart, N Ramirez 2016: Benintendi, Moncada, B Johnson, H Velazquez 2017: Devers, T-W Lin 2018: Walden, Poyner, Beeks 2019: Josh Taylor, Chavis, DHern 2020: Houck, Dalbec, Arauz 2021: Whitlock (from NYY farm via Rule 5), Duran, Crawford, Wong (traded for as a prospect) 2022: Casas, Downs, Winckowski (acquired as prospect via trade), Bello, Seabold, Ort Remember, when a prospect is called ujp, there is usually a lag between their call-up date and when they contribute in a positive way. Look 2-4+ years past when the best players started and notice our ring years fall in this range.

My sleeper pick, this year is Kentucky.

Lugo was promoted to AA in time for the playoffs. Minor League OPS Leaders. 500+ PAs 1. Kavadas 1.006 11. E Valdez .942 22. Rafaela .892 49. Abreu .841 50. Lugo .837 60. Paulino .827 76. Jordan .808 (Mayer places 55th on the list of leaders with 400+ PAs at .887 Minor League SB Leader Board 5. Hamilton 69 (8 CS) 9. Ferguson 61 (5) 42. Rosier 40 (5) 99. Abreu 31 (3) 120. Rafaela 28 (7) 132. Paulino 27 (5) 153. Meredith 25 (0) in just 65 games (The top 4 were not in the Sox system in 2021.) OBP Leaders (400+ PAs) 2. Kavadas .449 35. Abreu .402 40. Mayer .399 43. Bonaci .397 (The top 3 were not in the Sox system in 2021.) BB Leaders 1. Abreu 114 5. Kavadas 102 9. Ferguson 96 16. Bonaci 89 85. Mayer 68 (91 gms) 102. Scott 65 (95 gms) 102. Rosier 65 116. Paulino 64 126. Binelas 63 126. Hickey 63 155. Stewart 61 155. EValdez 61 OBP & SB .415 & 25 Meredith (65 games) .403 & 31 Abreu .399 & 17 Mayer (91 games) .397 & 28 Bonaci .366 & 61 Ferguson .359 & 40 Rosier .359 & 27 Paulino .344 & 28 Rafaela .337 & 69 Hamilton

500+ PAs 1. Kavadas 1.006 11. E Valdez .942 22. Rafaela .892 49. Abreu .841 50. Lugo .837 60. Paulino .827 76. Jordan .808 (Mayer places 55th on the list of leaders with 400+ PAs at .887

Minor League SB Leader Board 5. Hamilton 69 (8 CS) 9. Ferguson 61 (5) 42. Rosier 40 (5) 99. Abreu 31 (3) 120. Rafaela 28 (7) 132. Paulino 27 (5) 153. Meredith 25 (0) in just 65 games (The top 4 were not in the Sox system in 2021.) OBP Leaders (400+ PAs) 2. Kavadas .449 35. Abreu .402 40. Mayer .399 43. Bonaci .397 (The top 3 were not in the Sox system in 2021.)