moonslav59

It may not be by much, but I think Dugo in LF and Nimmo in RF is better, defensively, than Beni in LF and Dugo in RF, especially in Fenway. Nimmo is also a better hitter, but should be more costly, too.

It's not that part that is the killer, IMO. It's the timing part. A winning team needs to time going over the tax line just right, so every 2-3 years, you are set up where you can re-set, and the years you don't you don't make big signings of QO FAs, unless it is the year after a reset. We knew we were not going to win it all this year. I get the crapshoot playoff theory that is back in Vogue, this playoff cycle, but Bloom & Co. buckled to the pressure from Sox Nation and the financial bottom lines to not be sellers at the deadline. We can choose to go over, tis winter. We can choose to sign a QO FA or two, and face the stiff penalties that will adversely affect our extended future. Our farm has been strengthened enough to handle a little blip, but it still was unnecessary. Clearly, we'd be in a much better position for 2023, 2024 and beyond had we just sold off one or two more pieces out of the 5 we could have traded. 1. We'd have gotten something of value for them, even if just mid tier long shot promises. 2. We'd have been in year 1 of going over the tax line-not year 2. 3. Next year, we might be in year 2, not year 3 of going over. 4. The lost draft picks and bonus pool money would not affect this winter's plans and lessen the penalties for 2024, too. Many fans would have been irate, in August, but we could have gotten better, more easily going forward had we reset. Now, Bloom has to walk an even finer line- a line that was already extremely difficult to do.

Yes. The 7 game series should produce the better team winning, more often, but this year, we have two long shots vs each other, so one is going to the big dance. I gotta say, I love seeing the Dodgers ousted. They have become the mega-spending team the Yanks were once viewed as. It was nice seeing Philly advance, but I still like the way the Braves run their system more. Now, go Guardians! Go Tito!

If one of this off-season's top priorities is to not sing any QO FAs, I can't see how we can make a strong run at a 2023 ring. It would probably also mean a reset and a look at making 2024 the "go for it" season, although maybe beyond 2024 will still be the higher goal. We really messed up by not re-setting in 2022. Big time.

The five game series certainly add to it.

The Dugo in RF part would be the "poorer" D component vs someone like Nimo or Gallo.

Edit function not working, again.

Good read. They still have Pham as a 46M option not the $12 it is. They list Joc Pederson as an OF option. A few notable quotes: That attempt at a last-minute push for a wild card berth well fell short, leaving the Sox slightly above the luxury tax threshold (and the only one of the six tax-paying teams to not reach the playoffs). The actual $900K in taxes is a relative drop in the bucket, but the Red Sox now face added penalties in regards to qualifying-offer free agents this winter. Should the Sox sign a QO-rejecting free agent, they’ll have to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money, as well as their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2023 draft. Also, the compensatory pick that the Red Sox would themselves receive if a QO-rejecting free agent — like Bogaerts or Eovaldi — signed elsewhere will now fall after the fourth round of the draft. In fairness, the Sox were a lot more competitive than your usual last-place team, and might have been contenders in any other division. (Boston had an ugly 26-50 record against AL East opponents but were a dominant 52-34 against non-division clubs.) The Red Sox might’ve made more of a charge in 2022 if they’d had had only an average number of injuries, yet the AL East is so competitive that the Sox can hardly just run things back and hope for better health next year, especially with so much key personnel slated for free agency. The end summary... As aggressive as Bloom has been in reshaping the Red Sox with under-the-radar or mid-tier transactions, some big swings may be necessary to get the Sox back into contention this time around.

My anti- playoffs-are-a-crapshoot philosophy is taking a beating. I do still think the 'Stros win it all, but who knows?

I actually feel bad for jacko.

wow!

Funny how they change the ghost runner rule, when the games count.

So, if it's mostly about OBP, how would you feel about Beni in LF and Dugo in RF? Would the poor D outweigh the supposed boost in OF OBP? (Ref could be the 4th OF'er.)

Much of the thoughts have focused on how we can replace Bogey and JD's production in 2023. Bringing Bogey back would help, for sure. Replacing JD's .790 OPS in 2022 might not be real hard, but even .790 can be costly. There is another way to look at 2023, too. It's looking at who we can expect will bounce back and which lower producing players should be getting less or no PAs, next year. Not so easy to replace: .833 Bogey 631 PAs .790 JD 596 PAs .759 Vaz 318 PAs Who should/might improve : (OPS/PAs) The team OPS was .731 in 2022. .766 Casas 95 (could get 400+ more PAs) .737 Stroy 396 (may get 200+ PAs more) .736 Arroyo 300 .732 Dugo 644 .629 Kike 402 Who will get more PAs but will not likely repeat their OPS (but could be over .731): .881 Refsnyder .877 McGuire Who should get less, way less or no PAs: .697 Corderp 275 .672 Pham 235 .652 Dalbec 353 .645 Duran 223 .578 JBJ 290 .574 Plawecki 175 .427 Downs 41 .322 Sanchez 44 .000 Shaw & Arauz 31 This is about 1600 PAs or pathetic hitting that should be gone or greatly lessened.

Our best OBP in 2022 (Red = FA, option or gone) .384 Refsnyder (probably due for a decline) .377 Bogey .377 McGuire (Will not repeat this) .358 Devers (Could improve) .358 Casas (looking good!) .341 JD .328 Verdugo (can improve) .327 Vaz .322 Arroyo (about right) .320 Hosmer (about right) .303 Story (hope he can improve by 30-50) .300 Cordero (should not repeat 275 PAs) .298 Pham .297 Almonte .291 Kike (should improve and get more PAs) .283 Dalbec (will not get 353 PAs) .283 Duran (should not get 223 PAs) .273 Wong (hard to project) .257 JBJ .171 Downs (may not make the bigs, again) Top SLG% .521 Devers (should improve) .500 McGuire (.400 might be what is expected) .497 Refsnyder (over his head?) .456 Bogey .448 JD .434 Story (hope can get over .480) .432 Vaz .414 Casas (can improve) .408 Verdugo (should improve) .400 Almonte .397 Cordero .374 Pham .369 Dalbec .363 Duran .338 Kike (must improve) .321 JBJ .313 Wong .311 Hosmer .287 Plawecki .256 Downs

We need higher OBP, too. While .321 placed us 6th, I've always felt a higher OBP is more valuable than a higher SLG%. (We were 9th in SLG at .409.)

That's far below my highest, which might be $40M/4.

It's weird nobody is saying we should bring Beni back and put Dugu in RF.

Of course. GMs are always graded in hindsight. The way I see it, I'm encouraged by seeing that Bloom saw glimmers of hope in guys like Springs and Martin Perez, but just got the timing wrong.

Most mid tier prospect trades get mentioned, later on. When you make a lot of them, you hope or even expect one to work out in our favor. Bloom has made many more that bring us the mid to lower tier prospects than ones that give them away- not the Springs and Mazza were "prospects". The jury is still out on almost all of them, but it is a bummer that one of the few that went the other way produced a guy like Springs. We have traded away Springs, Chavis, Groome, Mazza, Aldo Ramirez, Scherff, Northcut and a few others. We have brought in... Wong Downs German E Valdez & W Abreu Binelas & Hamilton Seabold Winckowski R Hernandez C Koss J Wallace H Potts de la Rosa, F Valdez & G Gambrel Ferguson & Rosier I'm sure there are more known players I've forgotten.

Just because we added som eone, doesn't mean they will be on the 40 for long.

We know our team's attraction to plus RF defense and not caring too much about high K guys, if they can get on base enough or hit 30+ bombs, so we may settle for Gallo. We aren't the only team in need of a CF/RF'er, and Nimmo will have a lot of teams in on the bidding.

I don't want either, and it's a close call.

I fixed your post for you.

So, as I read it, we'd lose 2 picks and $1M of IFA bonus money, if we sign a QO FA: A team that exceeded the luxury tax in the preceding season will lose its second- and fifth-highest selections in the following year's Draft, as well as $1 million from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If such a team signs multiple qualifying-offer free agents, it will forfeit its third- and sixth-highest remaining picks as well.