A lot depends on JH's willingness to spend, perhaps more and for longer than he has ever done before.
So far, we have never gone over the tax line for 3 years in a row.
We have rarely gone way over in any single year, either, and when we did, we almost immediately reset, the next year.
In our current situation, our hopes in 2024 are better than 2023, assuming we extend Devers, but if we don't reset in 2023, then 2024 will be the third year penalty year. It's a mess that was created, needlessly by not resetting, this year.
JH will almost certainly have to break a long-standing policy in 2023 or 2024. I'm not so sure he will.