moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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With Bogey's loss of power, I think that line-up looks pretty close to the best, but it does not take into account trends and injuries. Just breaking down to first half vs second half... 1st 121 Devers 115 JD 105 Vaz 103 Bogey 94 Dalbec & Kike 93 Story & JBJ 85 Dugo 2nd 119 Dugo 119 Arroyo 96 Bogey 96 Pham 78 JD 65 Devers (158 McGuire but only 108 PAs w Sox)
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If you went by OPS+ in 2022, and only qualifying players, this might have been the "analytic" line up: 1. Bogey 131 2. Devers 141 3. Story 102 4. Dugo 102 5. JD 117
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Lux Tax inflation is not 10%, but it only affects 4-8 teams a year.
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Seems just about right. I doubt he takes it, unless he reaches free agency and no GM offers more. His home and away splits might scare away some GMs. .878 H .758 A His away splits have been better, recently: .796 in '21 .779 in '22
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Agreed. In theory, our line-up would start like this: 1. Bogey 2. Devers 3. 4. 5. JD
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SP's 2022 All Star Team (Pitchers tomorrow) C Hickey 1B Kavadas 2B Bonaci 3B Jordan SS Mayer OF Rafaela OF Bleis OF Sikes (only player not in top 25) Utility Paulino
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And, if the #3 hitter gets on with 2 outs, how often does he score? I think when the analytics clearly show a big difference, managers use the data. We see a lot of teams batting their best hitter second. That used to be used for a contact hitter to "move the runner over," and was often a somewhat weaker hitter. Managers are listening to a large degree.
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The bigger question is just what is fair offer for Bogey? $160M/6? (Story got $140M/6 and the US inflation rate is about 9%.) $168M/6? $185M/7? $140M/5?
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The "best hitter" need not be a power hitter, but I agree, I'd avoid power up first, even if I had a strong bottom of the order. I would put my very best overall hitter second. I agree with that idea. So, Devers bats second. Now, out of our next two best hitters, I'd put the better OBP up 1st and the other guy up 4th (not 5th as the analytics suggests.) Then does the 4th best hitter bat 3rd or 5th? I've always felt the 3 slot was important, but the analytics strong favors 5 over 3, so I'd go against my gut. My 5th best hitter bats 3rd.
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I think we will make a solid offer, and it will be made public. It may be an offer they know Bogey & BorA$$ will refuse, and they already know Plan B is actually PLan A. I think the final offer made to Lester was just a sham and public relations ploy to try to save half face. The Bogey offer may end up being a similar ploy. Who know? Maybe, we really do want him back.
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That's a solid list, except for the tippy top.
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The "analytics" says bat your best hitter second- not first. The 5 slot is more important than the 4, and the 3 slot should not be one of you top 3 hitters. I think the order goes: 2, 1, 5, 4, 3
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Hardly any big moves are made before the winter meetings, anymore. I agree on making him a solid and fair offer. Tell him it's on the table, even after Free Agency opens up, but that we may sign someone else at any moment, and the offer will vanish. Make it a fair offer and if he gets overpaid by some other GM, so be it. Just have a solid plan B and C.
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He did come close to .340 in 2021 (.337,) but Kike should not be our leadoff hitter. Expecting .333 is probably too much to hope for. If Story could show he can get back to .340, he might be a good leadoff hitter, but we need his power deeper in the line-up. When Bogey started showing signs of a decline in power, I wondered why we never led him off. He may not even be here, next year. We have to make some high OBP additions, this winter.
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If it comes down to paying for deGrom and Beni or Wacha and Nimmo, Lopez and Garcia would be way cheaper and shouldn't cost a major prospect to land. The money "saved" could be used to sign another pitcher or a catcher. Or, the saved money could be used towards signing Bogey not Swanson or adding to the offer for Devers. Again, it's not about any love for Garcia, but he would be an upgrade over JBJ/Duran and net us a cheap SP'er.
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1. It's not about Garcia and his contract. The money we pay him is really for the cheap pitcher we get in the deal, and the reduced return package you have to give up to get a solid SP'er, because we take on Garcia's contract. 2. Garcia would likely play LF in Fenway with Dugo in RF- not ideal, but with Ref as the 4th OF'er, maybe we'd be okay. 3. While not great, Garcia did have an OPS+ of 112 in 2019 and 119 in '21. There is some hope for a moderate bounce back to a near 115 OPS+ level, which would be a huge upgrade over our OF OPS+ in 2022.
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Looks like we have a pretty deep catcher situation on the farm from top to bottom, and 2-3 guys that have decent to fine ML back-up catcher profiles (McGuire, Wong, RHern,) but some serious doubts about having a solid #1 on the big club. Maybe a McGuire-Wong tandem will be enough, but the word was put out they are looking for an outside addition, and I don't think Caleb Hamilton was what they meant.
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Another option might be to take on a contract like Avisail Garcia, who could be an OF'er with bounce back possibilities as a way to lessen what we'd need to give Miami for one of their SP'ers.
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I'm crushed!
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This where I really see the people who expected Bloom to produce immediate results are missing a key aspect of how GMs build winning rosters. Tanner Houck is the only guy since Devers graduated from prospect status in 2017. Let that sink in! The near miracle of getting Whitlock does not count as a farm addition, but where would we be without that addition?
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Good point.
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My point was, I'd trade more for Berti than Laureano- way more, despite the similar BTVs. That's what I meant by "costly."
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Agreed. The top of the farm was very week from mid 2017 to mid 2022. The middle and bottom were not looking all that great either, but some of DD's additions have risen more than expected.
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Had Mata and Ward not been injured, they might have been ML ready by 2021 or 2022. Not sure that would qualify them for top of the minors. Mata did pitch in AA some in 2019, I believe.
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Duran & Dalbec. (Sub Hosmer, if they want him, instead.)
