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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    Agreed, but because he will be traded.
  2. moonslav59
    Nobody is disagreeing that things can and will go wrong. Injuries will happen. Someone might drop off a cliff and be benched. My point is that you go into a season with an idea or framework of who is your best 9. Maybe you plan for a platoon or two. Maybe you plan on one player sitting out more than others, but in general you plan on certain players to play certain positions until something changes your initial plan. Maybe if I word it this way, you'll be more okay with the statement? These positions will see this player start there most often, barring injuries: C Narvaez 1, Wong 2 (maybe Contreras 3?) 1B Contreras 1 (Maybe Casas 2? Romy?? 2B/3B _____ & Mayer/Romy (DHam/Sogard/Eaton) SS Story 1 LF Anthony 1, Duran 2 CF Rafaela 1, Duran/Anthony 2 RF Abreu 1, Anthony 2 DH Duran 1, Masa 2 (Casas/Romy 3 and others a distant 4th)
  3. moonslav59
    My sample was 2024-2025. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&type=8&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2024&season=2025&sortcol=17&sortdir=default&pageitems=2000000000&qual=800
  4. moonslav59
    If we can't get Paredes, E Suarez is my next choice. If we have to give up Duran to get Paredes, I'd rather sign Suarez.
  5. moonslav59
    No. From 2024-2025 Willson is #30 at a wRC+ of 130. (William is at #51.) It's my personal choice to say top tier is top 30 (30 teams.) A top 30 batter is in the top 9th of 270 batters (30 teams x 9 batters.) I then make the second tier top 31-60, but it's subjective where we set these tiers. I'm fine saying Contreras and Duran are tier 2 ('24-'25) I'd say Anthony will be, but that is based on 300 PAs in 2025. I'd like to think Abreu is reaching his prime and will be top 60, but he was 89th from '24-'25, so maybe that's being a homer. It took 600 PAs to get the 270 player sample size, that Anthony missed. If I change the sample to 800 PAs, it lowers the player sample size to 188. 25 Contreras (Tier 1 in my book) 46 Duran (Tier 2) 71 Abreu (mid Tier 3) We need a Tier 1 bat. BTW, Alonso is ranked 24th- right above Willson. Paredes, Bregman, Betts and E Suarez are all just below Duran. I guess they are not even Tier two either?
  6. moonslav59
    And maybe some estimates plan on 10 ILs while other project 20.
  7. moonslav59
    I don't think Campbell lost his hitting skills overnight. I think he will be a very good to great MLB batter. I think he'll be good enough to be a FT DH, if he can't earn a defensive role.
  8. moonslav59
    I'm one who thinks Casas will prove he can hit better than Masa (and maybe Duran, too.) He has not had split issues, so far. I'd look to trade Masa before ST'ing or opening day, but if there are no takers at $3-5M, then maybe wait to see how he does, and maybe he builds some trade value. I'd be fine looking at out 2026 and beyond DH as being filled by ... Duran & Co, or Casas/Campbell/Romy
  9. moonslav59
    This talk of shuffling players through the DH role is okay with me, if it is used as a way to give players some rest without losing their bat in the line-up and maybe needing less full days off, but to me, many of our batters are not good enough to DH. I don't want to lose the bats of Anthony, Story & Contreras, as well as vs RHPs: Duran, Abreu and maybe Mayer, at some point. Vs LHPs; Romy and maybe Narvaez, but I'm not DH'ing Narvaez. I'm not DH'ing Rafaela, ever. Maybe Mayer. Maybe Story, if he drops off. Okay, when Contreras, Anthony and Story need some rest, they can DH. That might be 10 games a year. That leaves 132 for Duran, maybe a few less, if Abreu plays FT and needs some rest.
  10. moonslav59
    Maybe only after hearing Brez cry about Devers, JH wanted him gone.
  11. moonslav59
    I think Masa can hit .750 to .800 in 2026, so to me he has value. We may have several other players on the team that can hit that, too- or a platoon set-up that can project to the same range. I have very little hope for Hicks, but with no roster crunch until opening day's 26 man roster, we might as well see if he regained something of what he had a few years back- if not, I'd be fine DFA'ing him. If Masa cannot be sent to AAA, I don't want him being just a bench guy: #2/3 DH and #5/6 OF'er. We should just trade or DFA him, if it comes to that. An OF'er trade clears room for him to win the DH job outright or as the strong side platoon with Romy.
  12. moonslav59
    In terms of projected fWAR, here is the scorecard: Add: 3.9 S Gray 3.3 R Suarez 1.9 Contreras 1.2 Oviedo (returning from injury: 1.5 Crawford + Sandoval) +11.8 Total (+10.3 added to team) _________________________ 2025 fWAR lost (2026 projected) 3.5 Bregman (3.8) 2.0 Giolito (1.2) 1.0 Wilson (0.5) 1.0 Dobbins (0.6) 1.0 Refsnyder (0.5) 0.7 Newcomb 0.6 Bernardino (0.1) 0.4 Lowe 0.2 Wink 0.1 Burdi -0.9 Toro+Sabol -2.1 several pitchers including Buehler + Matz (+1.7 Matz projected) +7.5 Total
  13. moonslav59
    I'm glad we didn't pay for Bichette. I wanted Breggie, but in 2-3 years we might view him like we view Bogey, now. We need a bat, still, and options are dwindling and expensive.
  14. moonslav59
    I really don't think we DFA Masa. Do we need an injury to demote him to AAA? Maybe someone would trade for him at a cost of $3-5M x 2 years, and we pay the rest. That might be the best solution. Just don't ask me who that team might be. I feel the same about Hicks, but he has no options and the pen is always in flux. See how he looks in ST'ing and decide then. We have no current 40 man roster crunch.
  15. moonslav59
    If any OF'er is healthy and does not need rest and is on the bench so that Masa can DH, DFA Masa, now!
  16. moonslav59
    I realize injuries happen and roles change. We all know this, but we can go into a season and place people where they should be when all are healthy. Of course they all won't get 650 PAs. Maybe Duran plays 155 games in the OF. I get that, But he could play play 130-150 at DH. I'd consider that FT. I'm giving these players what I think will be their roles: C Narvaez w Wong starting 30-40 games 1B Contreras FT 2B _____ or Mayer almost FT (Romy platoon?) SS Story FT 3B _____ or Mayer almost FT (Romy platoon?) LF Anthony FT w Duran some CF Rafaela FT w Duran/Anthony some RF Abreu w Anthony some DH Duran w Masa/Romy some and maybe a few others getting "rest days" as the DH. You don't have to agree, but this is a pretty normal way of viewing how a season is planned, knowing changes will be made.
  17. moonslav59
    Sox projected fWAR ranking by position: T4th LF 3.0 T7th CF 3.3 8th RF 2.8 13th DH 1.7 The whole infield + Catcher are ranked 14th or lower.... 14 1B 2.2 20 2B 2.3 23 Catcher 2.4 23 3B 2.1 27 SS 2.1 (Few are talking about upgrading SS) Pitching: 1st: 22.3 (LAD 21.8) 1st SP 18.3 5th RP 4.0
  18. moonslav59
    With the addition of Bellinger and Peralta to the NY teams, the fWAR rankings juggled a bit: 54.3 LAD 47.4 NYY, 46.7 NYM, 46.5 TOR 45.4 ATL, 45.0 SEA, 44.2 BOS 43.9 PHI, 43.1 BAL 42.2 HOU, 41.3 CHC, 41.0 SDP, 40.8 KCR, 40.6 DET 39.5 TEX, 39.4 MIL, 38.8 MIN, 38.1 AZ 36.9 TBR, 35.6 CIN, 35.5 ATH
  19. moonslav59
    They are estimating how many minor leaguers get bumped up to MLB pay for X amount of time. There are other factors I'm sure we haven't thought about. Your point was one I forgot about. This is not an exact science. I think the Sox even messed up on their calculations the year they went over by about $1M.
  20. moonslav59
    Fine. He can back up Anthony, too in LF, and When Abreu sits, move Anthony to RF and have Duran in LF. I'm still counting Duran as the FT DH (4th OF'er) If everyone is healthy, they should all get 600+ PAs. Assume 700 PAs per slot: LF: Anthony 600 & Duran 100 CF: Rafaela 650 & Duran 50 RF: Abreu 650 & Anthony 50 DH: Duran 550 (+150 OF) Of course, we won't see perfect health, but this is the template I'd use.
  21. moonslav59
    This is better but trending the same way: '22 +5 DRS '23 +2 DRS '24 -2 DRS '25 -4 DRS This is Paredes at 3B. Also... OAA: +2> 0> -1> -3
  22. moonslav59
    I'm not sure the number changes much, the more minor leaguers you call up, as one usually just replaces another and you add and then subtract about the same cost. Now, if you end up with 15 guys on the IL, then you have more minor leaguers making MLB pay than estimated.
  23. moonslav59
    I'm thinking they must believe his defense it just too awful to keep him at 2B. Trading an OF'er makes his path a little easier, but he'd need an injury to play FT- or another OF'er trade. If we trade Duran, our OF is under team control for 4 years or more! Maybe he ends up at DH, since we all know that slot is not logjammed... LOL!
  24. moonslav59
    OF defense.... Anthony> Duran Rafaela > Duran Abreu> Duran It's not a fact, and with Cora, nobody knows. I state it as my opinion.
  25. moonslav59
    What's "tier 2?" Maybe 30-60th? 300+ PAs 2025 wRC+ 15 Anthony 57 Contreras 59 Romy 108 Duran 113 Abreu 2024-2025 (600+ PAs) 30. Contreras (top of tier 2) 56 Duran (does make tier 2 group) 89 Abreu (just makes the tier 3 group) I'm not posting this to show we don't need a bat, because WE DO NEED A BAT, BADLY!!!!
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