moonslav59

Javier's ERA went from 3.72 to 4.34 after letting up 8 runs.

After losing 9 of 10 key games, last July, my gut was convinced it was over.

Sadly, I was one of the first to give up, last year.

It would be interesting to see records vs teams that had winning records when we played them- like adding the 3 gms vs PIT.

I don't think giving Whitlock one more chance to see if he could stick as a starter was not such a bad idea. I thought he was a better choice than Houck or Crawford, so with Paxton and Bello out to start the season, he seemed like the best choice, then. Some context: Whitlock only started 9 games in 2022, so the sample size was small. Furthermore, his first few starts were not much different from long men out of the pen: Game 1, 2, 3... IP pitches 4.0 48 3.0 61 5.0 78 3.0 82 5.0 80 3.0 71 6.0 84 6.0 70 4.0 71 One 9 game stretch from late April to early June. 2 starts over 5 IP 4 starts over 3 IP Hardly a sample size worthy of judging.

We have played more games vs .500+ teams than almost anyone else, so that is one reason we have the second most wins, but these are the only teams with winning records vs winning teams: 28-17 TBR 26-16 ATL 23-18 SFG 24-21 BAL 27-24 BOS 25-23 NYY Only the Padres and Sox do better vs winning teams than losing teams. Padres: 22-25 winning/16-21 losing Most games vs .500+ teams 54 TOR 51 BOS, CWS & STL 50 NYM 49 MIN 48 NYY & AZ 47 SDP 45 TBR, BAL, PHI & others The lowest games vs winning team by the better teams: 38 MIA & MIL 40 LAD 41 SFG, CIN & HOU 42 LAA 43 TEX

I counted about 28 starts missed due to injury. When you figure Kluber and Pivetta were demoted to the pen, and our 8th starter, Crawford, missed time in May, our rotation has done pretty well. They are actually top 15 and even top 8 in several meaningful stats. We've got next to nothing from Mata, Walter and Murphy, who were all supposed to be MLB ready and added depth, this year. Our pen had a few injuries, too, and are still missing Schreiber.

It's what doomed Ben. All the $5-10M deals like Kluber, Richards, Perez, Wacha, Hill and Kike are stabs in the dark, in general, at those prices. Story (1.5 years into a 6 year deal) Yoshida (0.5 yrs into a 5 year deal) Devers (starts next year) Think inflation: Ben started his career with a big salary dump trade, too. (Punto trade), then.... $110M/8 Pedey extension $72M/7 Rusney $39M/3 Vic $32M/2 Napoli $27M/2 Dempster (retired after 1 year) These 2 signings for 2015 did him in: $95M/5 Pablito $88M/4 HRam

He may. He may not. Nothing is "clear."

I think most of us prefer they were in the pen, but we realize the need in the rotation is stronger. Both have wildly better numbers through their first 25 and 50 pitches than afterwards. We appear to have 5 very nice long men, but we can't use them all that way. Whitlock Houck Crawford Pivetta Winckowski

Have not heard a peep.

I'd like to keep Houck, Whitlock and Wink in the pen- mayb e Crawford, too, but until we have 5 solid and durable starters, we can't. Pivetta has looked good out of the pen for a short time. He has had long runs at success as a SP'er, as recently as 2021 and 2022, so I'm not as locked into him as just a pen arm as the others.

He's not getting paid all that much. As a long pen arm, he can easily earn his keep.

Our SP'er ERA is at 4.73 (pen 3.96) WHIP is 1.276 (pen 1.310) OPSA in .760 (pen .719) OPS Against as SP'ers .587 Paxton 2.70 ERA .657 Bello 3.08 .695 Houck 5.05 .739 Sale 4.58 .810 Crawford 5.30 .841 Whitlock 5.23 .881 Kluber 6.26 .885 Pivetta 6.30 (I won't list openers.) Our rotation ranks... 27th in HR/9 1.54 24th ERA 4.73 (22nd in ERA- at 106) 19th in fWAR 4.7 13th WHIP 1.28 7th xFIP 4.01 (8th xFIP- at 94) 6th SIERA 4.03 6th K-BB% 16.7%

That would be a big boost, but I'm tired of hoping for his return. We need Houck back, ASAP. The good Houck.

I think trading him is probably a given. Paying his whole salary might gain some takers, but we won't get much for him, unless he explodes over the next 4 weeks. Kluber, too. Anyone want Mondesi? LOL!

To think our rotation has actually been a strength for longer than a weakness, while Houck and Whitlock have been so up and down, is amazing. Couple that with the Kluber and Pivetta demotions, and one can see the value of having better SP'er depth than we've had in a pretty long time. It's funny that I was counting on one from Mata, Walter and Murphy to be helpful depth to the rotation, this year.

They keep doing the unexpected- good and bad. When they look sucky, it seems most of us locked into the idea that this was who we are, forgetting we are still the team that won 8 in a row, at one time. We have a lot of talent. It may seem disjointed and and unbalanced, but 3 of the 4 key aspects of the game have carried us for long stretches: The O did for a long time. The pen has for almost the whole season. The rotation has done an amazing job after the first few weeks, especially in light of 28 GS'd missed by injuries. Only the D has failed to "carry us," at all. If we can ever get all 3 going at once, and keep them going, we can overcome the poor D. If the return of Story or Chang can help improve the D, and the other 3 areas stay more consistently good, this team can go places. Too many "ifs" for most Sox fans. I get why.

We are back over .500 at 43-42. 85 games/5 SP'ers = 17 In theory, this is how many starts our pitchers have missed: 6 Sale 9 Paxton 5 Whitlock 4 Houck 4 Bello (8 Kluber by demotion) (9 Pivetta by demotion) ? Crawford missed some time in May Other teams have had serious injuries, too. Ours seems to be focused almost exclusively on SP'ers and SSs, but 28 missed starts in 85 games is one third! We all expected missed time from Sale and Paxton. I remember thinking counting on them for 33 starts combined was probably wishful thinking, yet they have combined for 20 starts, so far. Without those two, our first half would have been horrific. Going forward: Bello has to reach 28-30 starts and remain solid. Paxton needs to reach 25 GS and also remain solid. I'm not expecting anything from Sale, and his "missing" 16 GS'd the rest of the way will be hard to replace. We might be lucky to get the 32 starts slotted at #3 & 4 to be filled by Houck, Whitlock & Sale. That leaves 16 starts for the #5 guy: Crawford/Murphy/Walter/Pivetta/Opener games? Our bats coming alive could help a lot. The pen needs to stay solid. Maybe the D can improve, once Story and/or Chang return.

I may feel this way in 3-4 weeks, but not now.

It does seem like we are headed towards where we were, last year nearing the trade deadline, but for some reason, I have more optimism, now than I did after last year's 1-9 stretch vs TBR, TOR & NYY in July. Stay tuned.

I think Pivetta has earned another shot in the rotation, but we do need long RP'ers, as Wink has been faltering. Maybe we bring up Murphy or Walter to start. We have a few days off and the All Star break. Maybe Whitlock won't miss many starts.

WOO was rained out. POR won Bleier was the opener (1 IP, 1H, 0ER, 0BB, 2K) Mayer had a bust out game (3-5 w HR bringing his AA OPS to .681) Kavadas 3 run HR Binelas 2-5 w HR Yorke 1-5 w 3B GRE won Encarnacion 6IP, 5H, 2ER, 0BB, 6K SAL won as Perales dominated: 5IP, 2h, 0ER, 2BB, 12K Yes, 12 Ks out of 15 outs

Games left vs our fellow contenders: GB -7.5 BAL 7 (3 HOME/4 AWAY) -3.5 HOU: 7 (3 HOME/4 AWAY) -3.5 NYY 7 (4 HOME/3 AWAY) -2.0 TOR 6 (3 HOME/3 AWAY) -1.5 LAA (none) +1.0 CLE (none) +1.5 SEA 3 AWAY Plenty of chances to pass these guys by just beating them, head-to-head.

A nice long win streak would help cancel out some of these messed up losing stretches. The other crazy thing is our record v TOR/NYY vs our record vs the NL Central.