moonslav59

I'm not as high on McGuire as I once was. I thought he was very good on D and would do better with the staff than Vaz did and likely Wong would do. I'm not for handing McGuire away for peanuts, just to give the journeyman Alfaro a look-see, but if the return is something we need (SS, P) then maybe. Kluber, $7M and McGuire for a better SP'er?

Could the next soxprospects.com rankings see Hickey and E R-C move up, significantly. I gotta think Mata and Walter might drop some. Wikelman, too. Paulino has warmed up a little. Lugo has not taken a step up, like last year. How high can/will they move EValdez up? I might go... 1. Mayer 2. Bleis 3. Rafaela 4. Yorke 5. Drohan 6. E Valdez 7. Hickey 8. Mata 9. Romero 10. Anthony 11. Perales 12. Walter 13. Paulino 14. E R-C 15. Jordan 16. Lugo 17. Wikelman 18. Hamilton 19. Abreu 20. Meidroth (Out: Murphy)

Could we trade McGuire to make room for Alfaro? (I doubt it.)

Looking pretty good for the Sox, that Paxton took the $4M player option, after the Sox refused their $13M option, right?

Vs the RHP Barria... 1. Dugo RF 2. Yoshida LF 3. Turner DH 4. Devers 3B 5. Duran CF 6. Casas 1B 7. Valdez 2B 8. Reyes SS 9. Wong C

Wacha must have fit some metric, when they signed him. It's time to throw out the metrics that led to Richards and Kluber. On the others... Wacha was a bargain. Hill was worth $5M Perez was signed a year or two, too early. Bloom has not totally missed on cheap SP'er signings, but I think he needs to step up the budget spent on the rotation, of invest some trade capital to acquire a big boost.

I'm hopeful we break the $10M or less SP'er trend, next winter. (Maybe we make a deal at the deadline- then extend.)

They have sucked, so far. I'm all for giving Whitlock a slot for several more starts, and certainly over Kluber and Pivetta. He has sucked, though, despite the small sample size. If you go by just ERA, like many here do (not you,) Kluber has a better ERA over the last 4 weeks than Houck and Pivetta. To me, the 5 should be... Sale Paxton Bello Whitlock Houck

We are not that far from June 1st: In the majors, Alfaro would earn a $2 million base salary. He has opt-outs in his deal on June 1 and July 1. 2023 at WOO (148 AB) .345 6 29 .381 OBP .574 SLG .956 OPS McGuire has no options. Wong will not be demoted.

The question might come down to Arroyo vs Reyes.

Not many could be worse.

Yup. Nobody is saying otherwise.

Murphy has imploded to a massive extent. He has a 2.35 ERA on July 23rd in 2022. 5.66 AUG '22 6.26 SEP '22 8.63 2023

We were assuming everyone is still doing well. They might demote Casas to avoid trading Arroyo. Duvall replaces Tapia. Story replaces Reyes or Arroyo. (Arroyo replaces Reyes or is traded.) Why demote Casas?

I'm not. He'd basically cost $16M more than Kluber for those 3 "extra years." That's $5.3M x 3. The risk on Nat is about as big and costs $8M more than Wacha- overall.

Whitlock is starting Saturday. He's in. Bloom has said he will go with 6 for one time through and take a look. If Houck can't get past 9 batters, and Kluber looks good (it is possible), maybe Houck goes to the pen. He would join Pivetta, Wink and Crawford as long men, which would allow quicker hooks on Kluber, Whitlock and anyone else who sucks out of the gate. I'm not saying I think hat will happen, but Cora is making the call. (Maybe he already knows Kluber will be demoted from the rotation.) I think we'd try Kluber in the pen before we DFA him.

All I'm saying is he did not suck as a 5th starter in 2022. This is 2023, and he has sucked. So has Kluber, Whitlock and to a slightly lesser extend, Houck.

Why assume Wacha will suck years 2, 3 and 4?

Well, if everything is going well, Duvall is hitting righties like he did in 2021 and is a FT'er.

I just hope that if he fails as a SP'er, he can go back to his pen role and be as big a success as he was before.

It will be a while before Duvall is back, and a lot can change, especially with Casas, Duran and others. I'm not sure Duvall deserves to be platooned. Career .758 v R .781 v L His big 2021 season: A MEGA Reverse split... .827 v R (413 PA) .610 v L ((142 PA) Big differential in 2022- the other way: .620 v R (237) .844 v L (78) 2021-2023 (out of 200+ batters with 600+ PAs v R) 76th Duvall at .784 (out of 224 batters with 220+ PAs v L) 145th Duvall at .730

The thing is, Wacha at $26M/3 ($8.7M x 3) is probably better than Kluber at $10M x 1. Wacha at $13M x 2 might be better. He got $26M/4. Sure, it's a risk, but it's spread out over 4 years.

How "good" is the average 5th starter in MLB? If you look at 2022, the first thing you notice is that you have to lower the qualifying IP to 70 to reach 150 SP'er (30 teams x 5 SP'er.) That alone sets Pivetta apart from almost all other 5th SP'er- IP, durability and taking the ball every 5th day. You can probably find some numbers that show he was a bad 5th starter, but here are some I found: If #1s are 1-30, #2s 31-60, #3's 61-90... fWAR ranking in top 150 SP'er of 2022: 77. R HIll 1.8 83. Wacha 1.5 86. Pivetta 1.5 (lower #3 tier 107. Eovaldi 1.0 xFIP 35. Nate 3.46 82. Wacha 3.99 93. RHill 4.12 103. Pivetta 4.26 (mid 4th starter tier) ERA- 42. Wacha 81 72. Nate 94 90. RHill 104 107. Pivetta 111 (mid 4th SP'er tier) IP 28. Pivetta 179.2 89. Wacha 127.1 95. RHill 124.1 110. Nate 109.1 K-BB% 91st at 13.2% (nearly in 3rd starter tier) BAbip 47th at .300 (suggesting bad luc/poor D) SIERA 97th at 4.21 (top tier 4th starter)

Nobody is arguing otherwise. BTW.... GS/QS 8/1 Houck 8/1 Pivetta 6/1 Bello 3/0 Whitlock 2/0 Craw They've all been s***, other than Sale, Paxton and Bello. 11/6 Sale & Paxton 17/3 Houck + Whitlock + Bello 9/1 Kluber 11/1 Pivetta + Crawford

Mark Polishuk reports... Garrett Whitlock threw 79 pitches in a Triple-A rehab start today, and Red Sox manager Alex Cora told reporters (including The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey) that Whitlock will be activated from the 15-day IL in time to start Saturday’s game against the Diamondbacks. Whitlock’s return won’t push anyone out of the rotation for now, as Cora said that Boston will use six starters over their six games this week, sandwiched around Thursday’s off-day. The team will re-assess the pitching situation after this full turn through a six-man rotation, Cora said, taking advantage of another off-day on May 29 to reset the staff as necessary. The probable starters? (With so many days off, I'm not sure a 6 man rotation is the best idea, but the extra rest should help, and maybe one more start might answer some questions- or raise more.) We have a doubleheader June 3rd but have the 5th off. Mon Houck @ LAA v Barria Tue Bello @ LAA v Canning Wed Paxton @ LAA v T Anderson Thu OFF Fri Sale @ AZ Sat Whitlock @ AZ Sun Kluber (last start as a Sox?) @ AZ Mon OFF Tue Houck (+2 days rest) v CIN Wed Bello (+2) v CIN Thur Paxton (+2) v CIN Fri Sale (+2) v TBR Sat(1) Whitlock (+2) v TBR Sat(2) Kluber? (+0?) vs TBR Sun Houck (+0) v TBR Mon OFF June 5th We then play 9 straight games- most likely with a 5 man rotation (@CLE & NYY and at home COL) day off, 10 straight, day off on June 26th