moonslav59

Yes, but using the BAbip against him without context seemed to be hinting at him not being as good as he might be. An .890 OPS is probably his ceiling and not what we should expect off 77 PAs. I'm not saying you were projecting .690 due to is BAbip, but I felt that BAbip needed context. He got off to a good start, and it's not all luck.

It was a disappointing season, for sure.

Like I said, maybe it wasn't a formal offer, so nobody is lying, because the amount was "floated."

Duran nin LF does improve his D and our LF D.

Indeed. This all requires almost everyone to stay healthy, especially Story at SS. The chances everyone does the same or better is never something to plan on. I get that. We do have OF depth, despite losing Duvall and moving Yoshida to DH. We don't really have anyone who looks to regress terribly due to age. C Wong 27/McGuire 28 1B Casas 23/Devers 26 2B Reyes 29/Urias 26/EValdez 24 SS Story 30 (Reyes 29/Urias 26) 3B Devers 26 (Yrias 26) LF Duran 26/ Refsnyder 32 CF Rafaela 22/Abreu 24 RF Dugo 27 (Abreu 24) DH Yoshida 29 The biggest "ifs" are with the pitching staff, but age does not seem to be an issue there, either, except for maybe Martin 37, Jansen 35 and Sale 34. 31 Bernardino 30 Pivetta 29 Schreiber 28 Kelly 27 Crawford, Houck, Whitlock 25 Winckowski & Murphy 24 Bello Add 2 top SP'ers or 1 with 2 other solid SP'ers Add a power RHB (CF/2B or RF, if we trade Dugo or Duran) Add a LH'd RP, if possible Yes, we'd still need a bunch of things to go right, but no key players are expected to decline.

The $300M was reported, long ago. Why wait so long to specifically deny that amount? I'm not saying Betts is lying. I just wonder. There is a chance the $300M was never officially offered, so Betts is telling the truth, but it might have been "floated" as a starting point, and it never got farther than that. Does that change the narrative, much?

Sometimes, I think the BAbip number does not show the whole story. While Abreu (.438) and Rafaela (.346) seem to be lucky, so far, due to their high BAbip, I'm not so sure. They have been hitting the ball hard, so they should have higher BAbips. Sox leaders in LD% 28 Rafaela 27 Refsnyder 26 Duran 23 Duvall & Turner 22 Wong & Abreu 21 Casas & Dugo 20 McGuire 19 Reyes & Chang 18 Story, Devers & Yoshida 17 Valdez 13 Urias Hard Hit % 42 Devers 40 Abreu 39 Chang 37 Casas 36 Dugo 35 Duvall & Duran 32 Wong 31 Story, Reyes & Turner 30 Yoshida & Valdez 26 Refsnyder 23 McGuire 19 Rafaela

Saying someone sucks on D is not saying they suck overall. WAR captures the overall value well enough for me, but we often see players with lower WARs due to poor D and higher WARs due to great D. Devers and Casas would have much better WARs, if they just player average D. They'd have great WARs, if they played great D. Nobody wants to bench them. They are two of our best players, but moving them to different positions might improve their value. I doubt it would hurt it.

I don't disagree, but this costs nothing and brings us from the worst D in MLB to near the middle with no outside additions: C: Wong & McGuire (hopefully, a little better due to added experience) 1B: Casas & Devers as back-up (hopefully, Casas works on his D like he does on his O, over the winnter.) 2B: Reyes & Urias or EValdez? (Reyes as the FT 2Bman is an improvement over the combined group of 2023. ) 3B: Devers & Urias/Reyes (same) SS: Story & Reyes (HUGE improvement) LF: Duran/Refsndyer platoon (significant improvement with no Yoshida) CF: Rafaela & Abreu (significant improvement) RF: Dugo & Abreu (same) I see improvements at 4-5 positions, including all up the middle ones. I see close to the same at 1B, 3B, RF and maybe C and 2B. Is that enough to boost the current pitching and incoming ones?

Well, Betts said he never saw a $300M offer, so this would have been one. Would $299M/10 have been "lowballing?"

We had a bunch of really good half seasons from several SP'ers, this year. Nobody put together a full season of consistent good pitching. Bello 3.15 ERA in 15 GS from 4/29 to 7/26 Sale 3.16 in 15 GS from 4/30 to 9/28 Pivetta 3.22 in 8GS & 13 long relief outings from 6/18 to 9/29 Paxton 3.36 in 15 GS from 5/12 to 8/10 Crawford 4.19 in 16 GS 6/20 to 9/18 Just enough to get our hopes up, briefly- some of us "losers" anyway.

Maybe it was $295M/10, and nobody is lying.

Casas should get a longer chance to see if his defense can improve. We know pretty much what Devers can do, although he has looked okay, at times. It can't hurt to try and fix the D, as long as it doesn't mess up the O or take away resources needed for added pitching.

That was fun to watch.

Senior, maybe.

Being great hitters does not make them "adequate" on defense. They both suck on D. Let's not sugarcoat it. Yes, their great O offsets their D and makes them very nice plus players, but keeping their bats in he line-up and moving Casas to DH and Devers to 1B would not lessen their offense or overall value. That being said, I'd keep them both where they are, and move Yoshi to FT DH. Devers should start learning 1B, and be the back-up, there, next season.

Casas was horrible on D, as was Devers, but I think Yoshi should be the DH. Casas should get a chance to show he can improve. Devers should start seeing if he can play 1B as a back-up in 2024, when he is not at 1B, and Casas gets one of his 20 rest days from Cora.

Agreed, They should have spent the Story money on an ace and had Wacha and Hill as the #3 and #4's. That would have helped the pen, too.

...and "the man" is not Elvis.

I don't disagree. I just don't see it as a "lowball," and not nearly to the level of Bogey and Letser, if it was.

$300/9 is pretty close to $350M/10, and why would this be his "final contract?" He'd be 35 after that 9 year deal. I just don't see $300M/10 as anywhere near being lowball, or at least not close to the Lester or Bogey offers. (reported in all cases)

After Pivetta's start to the 2023 season got him demoted to the pen, who would have thought he'd come back to lead our team in ERA (85+ IP)? 4.04 Pivetta (143 IP) only 16 GS 4.23 Crawford (123) 22 GS (He pitches, tonight, so his standing may change, some.) 4.24 Bello (157) 28 GS (3.74 ERA first 14 GS/5.49 last 14) 4.30 Sale (103) 20 GS (had a 3.16 ERA in his last 15 GS) 4.50 Paxton (96) 19 GS (was at 3.85 in first 15 GS) 5.31 Houck (100) 20 GS

With Devers and Casas rating to be our two best batters in 2024, I can't see making acquiring a 3Bman a high priority. Defense matters, yes, but not as much as fixing the rotation and finding a replacement for JT and Duvall from the right side of the batting box. While Chapman checks the RHB box, we have other positions that need more fixing than corner IF. Moving Yoshi to DH makes a hell of a lot of sense. It automatically improves the LF defense, and if it keeps Duran out of CF, if improves CF D, too. It might allow Yoshi to hit better in 2024, as he should be better rested and able to focus more on batting not defense. With Abreu and Rafaela knocking loudly on the door, this allows them an opportunity to win the CF position, or share it while backing up RF. If Rafaela proves he can play, nearly everyday, our OF D is fixed with no additions needed. It's a big if, though, and Abreu offers a back up plan, although his defense is still in need of improvement, especially in CF. Story should greatly improve our SS defense. Relying on Reyes to hit over .700, again, is probably wishful thinking, but his defense at 2B is okay. Urias may not be back, and his defense is not great, either. I'm hoping Wong and McGuire continue improving their defense and can combine to hit over .700, consistently. Maybe, this is too many "hopes" and not enough sure bets, but I think just adding one good RHB might be all the non pitching roster needs. Duvall returning is one option, but I don't really like him in CF; we have too many LF'ers already, and Dugo was our best defensive OF'er, last year, so adding Duvall to play RF is not really improving the D, either. It would balance the L-R make-up of the OF, though. Some have mentioned Teoscar, but he's not helping our D. I'm not aware of any power RH'd bats on the market at 2B. (Maybe via trade?) The main focus, this winter has to be on the rotation. It needs to be a major focus times 3. Maybe two really good starters would be enough, but I'd prefer one really good one and two solid ones.

I was suggesting $400M/12, but was mostly laughed at. If the offer was $300M/9, then it was about "market value." The other thing we need to know is was this even hinted to be "the final offer?" If our last offer was, indeed, $300M/10, then I would not compare that to the Lester/Bogey "lowball Johnny" offers. Even if they said, "take it or leave it," as a final offer, I think the offer was close enough to be viewed as "fair." I find it hard to believe they wouldn't say, "We can go a little higher, add some incentives or make it 9 years not 10," but maybe they did not go that way.

Nobody can tough GG. Nice try.