moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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I've already proven you wrong, yet you persist. Two teams are tied and play each other. After the game, either team A will be up one game or down one game. This is fact, and that's a 2 game "swing." Yes, team A or B will only be one game ahead or behind, so in that sense, it's just one game, but the differential between team A or team B winning makes for aa 2 game swing. Why is that so hard for you to grasp? I get your point. Team A wins, team B goes from tied to -1. That's one game, but the only other alternative was Team B wins and is up 1 games. The differential is 2 games, not one, between the two opposing results. Simple math.
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We kept hoping DHern could lower his BB/9, but he never did. Other have. Wikelman has nasty stuff, but he needs to control it better. I remain hopeful, perhaps to a fault.
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OK, bWAR and ERA-, why skip over those?
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This whole option thing sounds confusing to me. It's a player option. To me, it seem slike JT can take the $13.4 option, which he should not, and then the Sox have the option of paying him $13.4M in 2024 or buy him out to play elsewhere and pay $6.7M. It seems to me, they don't pay him the $6.7M, if he opts out. That's what it seems like to me, but I keep hearing we pay the $6.7M, even if he opts out. Why?
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By fWAR and your chose stats, but not by BWAR, ERA, ERA- and some others.
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Where am I trying to force anything? I started my point with "maybe," and we all know most players would take a contract $10M more than another, unless if talking about $360M/12 vs $350M/12. Maybe it does cause TBR to counter with enough to land him there longer, but it's not absurd to think we might have signed him had we started with an offer of $50M/3 or $55M/4
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I didn't say it was. Please re-read. His 2.95 ERA and 67 ERA- were set to be outliers. His fWAR, no. His bWAR was on track for about 5.1 or 5.2 and it was 4.3 in '21. It's easy to find some stats to refute every comment made, here, but Nate was, IMO, on pace for his best year ever. Maybe "outlier" was hyperbolic. I know your stats of choice show otherwise, but other reputable stats show otherwise.
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That has been my point for 4 years. You get what you pay for. The limited budget forced Bloom's hand in 2020 and to some extent in 2021. He could have focused more of the increased spending in 2022 and 2023 on pitching, but I think the plan has been to build up the foundation until we think we are withing striking distance, and then ponce on pitching, which costs a lot and a lot of years to get the best. (This is just my opinion on why. I'm not saying I support the idea, but it does make some sense, if the plan was always about 2024 and beyond?)
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ON D. He did not need to run, jump and twirl to make those plays from the hole. He was a plus defender from '97 to '00 or '01 but was not a great defender.
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Start by sweeping TEX and TOR 6-0 and we are right in this thing-- you know, the whole 2 game swing thing on every game played with each team! LOL 6-0 in those games and 11-6 in the others andwe may still squeek in..
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I know the odds are very long. Losing, last night was not a tease. Almost winning was.
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I've been saying jeter was the worst SS on defense in my lifetime. My point was that Nomar was over-rated. My numbers showed Nmarw as better than Jeter.
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Better all around players, yes, especially at key defensive positions like SS. -
Okay, how many hits turned to outs does it take to save a run? (Defence) So, the 45 "extra runs" let up by our scrub pitchers might have led to 4-5 more losses. (I said 5-8.)
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TOR has now passed TEX, and we lost a chance to gain on TEX and stay even with TOR. Unless things change, quickly, I don't see TEX passing HOU, so we need to pass TEX & TOR. SEA could be passed, too. Red's Standing Update 77-61 SEA 77-62 TOR 76-62 TEX -0.5 from WC 72-67 BOS -4.5 from TEX and -5.0 from TOR (-5.5 from SEA) 69-69 NYY -2.5 from BOS 24 games to go is making this look extreme!
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It's hard to keep track of how many 4 and 5 out innings our pitchers had to get through, and it seems like a heck of a lot more than the -49 OAA number. Perhaps, I am counting possible outs for every play, even somewhat tough to really tough ones I see opposing defense make against us as an extra out, but I'm pretty sure, even being conservative, it has to be 49 or more missed outs. It seems like more than 1 every 3 games, though.
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maybe 5-10 more than the norm?
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I'm not so convince Nomar was ever a big plus defender. He made those running, twirling plays from the hole that looked impressive, when I'm not so sure they were outs most SSs made look easier. BTW, here are the plays made from 1997-2022: ASS/PO= Plays (innings) 2582/1473= 4055 ARod in 7809 (.519 plays per inning) 2526/906= 3432 Vizquel in 7778 (.441/inning) 2301/1364= 3,665 Jeter in 8092 (.453 per inning/ .284 assists per inn.) 2132/1164= 3,295 Nomar in 6481 (.508 per inning/.329 per inn.) Nomar did better per game, but not by all that much and way worse than the best. I always said, ARod should not have changed positions for Jeter, a SS who had one of MLB's worst DRS numbers in history at SS.
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We did offer Nate a QO and then an offer larger than he signed with TEX. (BTW, he's hurt.) I'm not sure signing ERod to what he got would have been a winning strategy. Strahm wanted to be a SP'er. We already had enough long relief guys trying to be turned into SP'ers. You left out Rich Hill. I was all for bringing Wacha back and would have offered more than what he ended up getting. Missing out on Nate or Eflin killed us more than selecting Kluber did. The combination of both was a catastrophe. No doubt, our rotation was our major killer, this year.
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That's kinda my point: Bloom never catches the good outlier. Maybe 2023 is Eflin's outlier. Springs is no outlier. Nate was on his way to an outlier, after 4.3 years with BOS. It seems that Bloom is often on to the right idea, but he comes up short on the offer or the timing of the signings. Maybe every GM can say the same.
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How many wins does 60+ opps hits turned into outs get a team? That is the difference between our OAA and some of the better defensive teams. We ar 77 worse than the best team and about 50 worse than the mean. It's hard to prove the 7th and 8th RP losses turned to win, but change the ERA from about 7.00 to 4.50 for 160 IP and do the math. I think that comes to about 45 runs (not outs.) I'd guess it's closer to 20 than 12-13, but I'm pretty sure it's 13.
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It seems to be a reoccuring theme. On the flip side, he had Springs and traded him away. He signed Perez twice, then failed to re-sign him, and he pitched much better, afterwards, although he has dropped off, this year. Wacha and Nate pitchefd betetr this year. (Rich Hill, Richards and others have not.)
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Maybe, if Bloom had come in with an initial offer with one more year and $10M more....
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No doubt, but there are more than just 2 areas (SP & untimely hitting) that have cost us 5-6 games. I'd say... 8-12 games Defense 5-8 games first or second guy in from the pen.
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Indeed, but if we had one more long guy like Houck, Pivetta, Crawford, and most years Whitlock, we'd have won a lot more games with them vs: IP Pitcher ERA 31 Bleier 5.28 25 Jacques 5.11 23 Ort 6.26 21 Bra-Man 7.29 19 Walter 5.79 18 Garza 7.36 17 Llovera 4.67 8 Bear Claw 12.91 3.0 Littell 9.0 2.0 Faria 22.00 2.0 Lamet 13.50 That's over 160 IP, some of which were mop up, so if we replaced 80-100 of those with just a 4.50 long guy, we'd have more wins and less stress on the better part of our pen.
