moonslav59

I was not high on Drohan, so I'm fine with all the Rule 5 switch-outs and the Slaten trade. We basically have 2 choices for the 26 slot, not one: Mata and Slaten. Good moves. I may be in the minority for liking the Dugo trade. We got 3 pitchers and added $4M to the winter budget by swapping out Dugo for O'Neill.

So, the window would be for 2 years, then reset? Or, just bite the bullet and pay the mega tax until you get #5? I can't see how we spend $1.2B and reset in 3 years, unless we trade Story and someone else (Devers or one we just signed?)

I think Drohan was over-ranked, but according to SP's, we basically traded #15 Drohan and Ammons & cash for Slaten

I think he can.

Agreed, unless we spend large but not on SP'ers. (not likely)

So, you think being over the tax line for more than 3 years is doable?

I agree and have said the same thing. There is no excuse to not go right up to the second line. The second line gives us close to $77M to spend AAV. With Sale's deal coming off the books after '24, a couple of longer term deals should be more than acceptable. If we try to nickel and dime, even $77M, by going with shorter term deals and spreading the wealth over 6-8 new additions, I might still get out the pitch fork. We need to focus on 3-4 quality players and get over the quantity phase we saw under Bloom. (There was good reason to go quantity in Bloom's early years: our budget was tight, and our 40 man roster and farm had too many holes to name.) SP1 SP2 2B C, RF or SP3 If it was up to me, I'd spend $77M AAV on just the top 3 slots I listed. We could even trade for one of the top 4 slots and spend the full $77M on just 3 or spend on 4... $30M Yamo $27M Monty $10M 2B $10M C, RF, SP3

No question about that, so far. 4 years to go to try and salvage some value lost in years 1-2.

The guy is a better defender than I imagined. He was not post prime when we signed him. We knew about the park affects on his numbers, but his away numbers were nearly identical to Bogey's. I liked the signing, but the injuries and rehabs killed us.

We do know he pulled the offer to Nate, so that one is on him. I'm not sure he would have been allowed to outbid the Rays for Eflin or give him 4 years, but I doubt the size of that deal was on JH. He also guessed wrongly on both $10M/1 pitchers: Kluber and Richards. That's not on JH. Yes, we don't know how the budgets given to our GMs are set up. Probably, the longer term deals need pre-approval. Apparently the Nate one was.

I'm glad JH did not decide to pony up $701M, unless it was going to end up being $1.2B, because we still need pitching. Just pony up $500-600M and get us two of the top 3-4 remaining SP'ers on the board. Yamo Monty Snell and maybe Imanaga

I liked other options, too, and not all of them worked out well. I do think it was a legitimate stab at fan appeasement. Too little- too late, of course.

I'm not starting to be convinced: I am convinced. It's been a 4+ year dupe. (It actually started when we did not bring Kimbrell and Kelly back or replace them in kind. The near miracle in '21 just bought them more time with the fanbase. Whether the dupe continues is up for debate, IMO.

Exactly, and that is why I feel he must know Sox fans are watching closely. He may not let that convince him to open up his checkbook, but he'll feel the wrath, if he doesn't.

If JH says to Brez, you have $56M or $76M (AAV) to spend this winter, then it's on Brez to get us a top pitcher and a decent second one. If JH says no long term, mega deals to SP'ers, then it's on JH, if it does not happen- not Brez.

No, it's not about the very few who wished we got him. It's about the idea that the $700M given to Ohtani will end up pricing Yamo, Snell and Monty out of our price range. Certainly, the tone here has shifted sharply since the signing. I don't think it's an exaggeration, but I'll defer to you - the expert on the pulse of Sox Nation..

It seems weird that we all knew we were not getting Ohtani, yet it seems like the sky has fallen in Sox Nation upon that news.

I like Monty, too. I've been letting talk about Snell being better than Monty get to me. I hear TOR made a real competitive offer to Ohtani, so I have to think they will get one of the three. If Cohen wants one, I have to think he gets one. That leaves one for BOS, NYY and any other team that wants to spend. It will all come down to JH wanting it bad enough and Brez trying to convince him one of them is worth the plunge.

Agreed, No way we could win with Ohtani and a budget near the tax line. I doubt we could even at the second line for a couple years, before resetting. (I meant to start my last post with this.)

It's going to have to come from the farm, current pre arb player becoming arb players and some kind of turn around for Story and Yoshi. I don't think we are as far away as some think we are. The problem is, we need 3-4 major additions, and with costs the way they are, we may need to use the farm to get 1 or 2. Again, I'm not projecting or expecting JH to spend big, this winter, but if he agrees to go up to but not over the 2nd tax line, and Brez spends it wisely, we can be playoff contenders in 2024. Once a couple of our big 3-5 prospects start contributing, we can get back into the mix, but there is very little room for error. If we trade a top 3 prospect, it better be the right one, AND the return better not be a one year rental or a bust. If we spend $70-75M, we can get two very good SP'ers and more. It's not absurd to think we can do that. If we choose to not go over the tax line, and spend every penny to stay a cent below it, we'd have $56M to spend on 2 SP'ers and a 2Bman. Or, we trade for one of those 3 major open slots. I'm not sure we can do it for $56M, unless we make a big splash trade. There are ways to do it. It just takes the will and the checkbook.

I'm okay with missing out on Yamo, if we get... 1 from Snell or Monty PLUS 1 from Imanaga, Lugo, Stroman, Wacha I might be OK with Imanaga, Lugo & Stroman. If we can't do any of these, it's on Henry, unless Breslow spends the money it took to get any of these choices on other positions. That being said, I'm not part of the dump JH brigade. I might not be, even if we fall short, this winter. We'll see, soon enough.

I liked the Story signing, too. It kept me thinking they were making strides towards being relevant, again, at some point... maybe not in '22 but at least likely in '23. I did not expect us to go over the tax line in '22, but felt we'd do so in '23. They couldn't even do that right. I wanted Devers forevers, but he's not an addition. We finished last for 2 years, so extending Devers not improve the team. It just kept it from getting worse.

Yes, two last place finishes plus the lies compounding upon each other. Hey, you have access to the bigger corner than I do, what do you hear? Sound louder? More in unison? More demanding?

There was probably more than one reason. Certainly, a hedge against possibly losing Bogey had to be part of it. They promised to get competitive, so I do think fan unrest and the chance of dropping attendance and NESN viewership was likely a reason, too. Why I think it was "knee jerk" was I feel other signings, that winter were better deals and at positions of higher need. It's just my opinion. To me, despite the Story and Yoshi signings and the Devers extension, the fans are more restless, this winter than the last three. Let's see if they care enough to be serious about placating the base. If they go bold and fail, at least the fans will feel like they tried. (They'll still be pissed. They'll call for Breslow's head, but at least the feeling of caring might be restored.)

What was left, when we signed Story in March? The Yoshi signing does not fit the bill on the "fan pleasing" meter, but I do think it made it look like they cared more about 2023 than 2021 and 2022. The casual fan just said, "Meh."