moonslav59

Tough question. $10M AAV can get us something good, by itself. Adding $10M AAV to a tight budget can mean we spend $25M on a pitcher not $15M. That difference could be huge. Our total remaining winter budget is not likely $10M or less. It could mean signing 2 player at $5M more a piece and getting 2 better players. If you count it as only $10M total, not much. It gets us the next Kluber or Richards, but it's also almost enough to get the 2022 Wacha plus Hill. In 2024, $10M gets you guys like this: $11M/1 Lance Lynn $10.5M Kiermaier $9M/1 J Heywood $8.5M Wade Miley $5M/1 Will Smith + $4M for Maldanado or Austing Hedges.

And nobody has come up with a reasonable solution on how we can be sure we get a top pitching draft pick right. But, actually, we have come up with some very reasonable solutions: the Sox just don't agree with them or try to enact them. 1. Sign a damn pitcher that is not a reclamation project would be a solution more likely to work than drafting a pitcher just for the sake of him being a pitcher and not being the best talent available. 2. Trade some of these non pitching prospects we drafted so highly, some of which appear to have very good trade value for the young and controlled SP'ers we never drafted or developed. (It worked, at least 3 times after the Pedro trade.) These ideas haven't "worked," because they have not been tried. Hell, the best somewhat high prospect trade we have made in the last 4 years was actually trading a pitching prospect (Aldo Ramirez) for a big bat (Schwarber.) It seems like an easier and quicker solution by doing 1 and or 2 than to attempt to revamp the scouting, development and drafting aspects or our whole system. I'm all for the revamp, but it would not automatically mean they new guys will or should draft an inferior prospect, just because he's a pitcher. Not drafting pitchers highly does make it harder to produce a top pitcher, but to me, it's more about development and finding gems in rounds 3 or worse. We should do that plus #1 anytime and #2, when needed.

I really don't get the whole "apologist" angle. Sure, some tried to explain why they chose an under slot guy pick one, but it's not like it's an absurd idea, in theory. It turns out the choice does not look good, right now. It looks more likely like a bust than even a useful utility player projection. I get that and don't disagree, that the pick looks bad, but so does Groome, T-Ball and others. Why does this one draft mean so much more than other ones that don't look so good, as of now? Hell, some already have almost a complete grade, and it's an F or D, at best? Even if we blew the Yorke pick, like it looks like we did, as Jordan and Drohan have now shown the underslot idea worked, this time, I still think many other drafts were just as bad, considering not picks after round 5.

Agreed. It's great having a guy who takes the ball very 5 days, but is a 5 man rotation of Giolito's and Pivetta's getting us closer to respect? That being said, I can see the chances a decent plus. Grissom could be the 2Bman we have been looking for. If we end up spending the Sale "savings." wisely, maybe we can see very nice gain from this trade. Putting lost FAs aside, here is the net change: Lost: Sale, Dugo, Urias (Drohan, RFern, N Robertson) Gained: Giolito, O'Neill, Grissom, Campbell, Slaten, Fitts, Weisert Looks again, like more quantity than quality and hoping these guys do well.

Very concerning, and the Nate signing was not really adding any new pitcher from the previous season. In that respect, Giolito is the highest paid, out-of system FA pitcher signing since Price. (Porcello and Sale were extensions, after we traded for them.) When you couple this with no drafting or developing young pitchers very well, until maybe recently, it's no wonder our rotation looks like a list of 7-8 guys with question marks hanging from their necks.

You mean they knew he wouldn't be around by round 3? Could very well be. IMO, the slot money was another factor. They paid Yorke about $900K underslot. Later, they took Jordan at about $1.08M overslot and Drohan $$236K over. It was a 4 man draft due to COVID with no second round pick. I'm more upset about several other drafts than that one. (17th York, 89th Jordan, 118th Wu-Yellans and 148th Drohan) The first 2 picks of '22 (24th Romero & 41st Coffey look worse, so far, although getting Anthony at #79 was a steal. Some later picks combined may outdo Romero and Coffey. Perhaps we should have drafted a pitcher 79th. 2019 43. Cannon 69 Lugo 107 Zeferjahn 137 Song 167 Groshans 197 Chris Murphy (One of the few drafts we drafted 3 of the top 6 as pitchers. None have done much, if anything. Houck as the first pick in 2017 (#24) worked out pretty well. We also drafted Jake Thompson, Scherff and Schellenger, making it 4 pitchers in the top 3. (I'd still take the Teel, Mayer and Anthony drafts over this one.) While we are geeting back a ways in our history, we can also get a better read on their grades. 2016 (Anther draft with pitchers that did not work) 1st pick Groome (12th) 3rd (88th) Shaun Anderson 5th Shawaryn (148th) 6th Nogosek (178th) 2015: we avoids top pitchers in the draft (#171 Lakins) Many felt the Kopech draft at #33 in 2014 was one of our best pitching drafts, but he has not been good, for a few years, now. That #7 pick we had in 2013 was one of the highest we've ever had. We also drafted a pitcher 2nd: 7. T Ball 43. Stanky 113. Myles Smith 143. Corey Littrell (4 pitchers in the top 5 ended up being one of our worst drafts, ever.) I'm sticking with the draft the best SS idea (maybe an OF or C, here and there.)

We also dumped a lot of salary under team control for 2024: Sale, Urias and Dugo. They only counted FA additions. Still, a bit surprising. 8 teams have spent $0- 1.5M, so far.

Like, we should have drafted more T-Balls?

Espinosa or Kopech? I don't think Groome or Mata ever cracked the 100. Not Owens. ERod was traded for as a prospect. Was he ever top 100?

Sorry. My eyesight is bad and getting worse. I thought you were Randy continuing our discussion of drafting pitchers. My bad.

I'm not going to assume drafting a few more pitchers higher up would translate to us have a top pitching prospect or more. Certainly, it improves the odds, but to me, and it seems like most MLB teams, drafting the player most likely to make an impact, no matter what position they play makes the most sense, and pitchers are higher risks, so they tend to not be drafted as highly, overall. I'm fine with thinking we need to improve our pitching from our system. IMO, we've already started, although some were acquired: Houck, Whitlock, Wink, Crawford, Bello... Here are the amount of pitchers drafted in the top 15: 4 in 2023 (11 non pitchers) 4 in '22 (3 in top 14) 7 in '21 (5 in top 12) 6 in '20 (5 in top 14) Pitchers taken shortly after Yorke:Bryce Jarvis, Cade Cavalli, Nick Bitsko, Jared Shuster 2 in '19 (#7 Nick Lodolo & Alek Manoa at #11 5 in '18 (4 in top 13: Casey Mize #1, Ryan Weathers #7, Carter Stewart #8 & Grayson Rodriguez #11) Would you say that highly drafted pitchers have done well in the last 5 drafts? If we just trade some everyday prospects for a solid young pitcher, out method is fine. (We used to do that and won rings shortly after many of the biggest trades of prospects: Pedro, Schilling, Beckett, Sale.

Hard to know, but it sounds correct.

Certainly, everyone will agree it was a good trade, if Sale gets hurt or underperforms, and/or Grissom does well, but that will be in hindsight. Right now, I see the trade as being a big risk. Brez seems to like hard throwers. I get the injury risk factor is off the charts, but to me, the balance of the trade flips to to a nicer deal, if we use that $10M to get a better SP'er or OF'er, or whatever.

I don 't either. We already have these players, whose best position is LF (or DH:) Yoshida Duran O'Neill Refsnyder Why add one more. Get an OF'er who can play RF or CF (or both.)

That's not a good way to approach a draft.

We'll wait until the next draft, and you can tell us who we should have taken, and then we'll see. (I'm not trying to bust your balls. I'd like to see us draft a good pitchers, too. It's just hard to get those picks right- for almost any team.

Unless we spend all the Sale money, I'd rather have Grissom. We haven't always spent what we cut from player payrolls.

IMO, JH will spend big again, but it might not be until 2025 or 2026. Pure speculation on my part.

It scares me to think they may slot him in Cf.

BTW, I love the Teel pick, and we paid the next two picks over slot. I’m sure, in a few years we can look back and say what if? Who would you take this next draft?

Coming back stateside tomorrow morning. Had a blast in Mexico! Happy New Year to one and all!

I am puzzled why we can’t spend more. At least spend to within 1-2 M of the tax line until it’s time to splurge. That being said, we have often been $5-7M under , so that is not really “small market.” It’s been too 8-12 or so since Rick bottom 2020.

We’ve made many bad moves and picks, and our pitcher development has sucked for about a decade. Sometimes drafting under slot players works well- sometimes not. Overall, I think our drafting has been a plus under Bloom, but it’s speculation, and he swung and missed on some higher picks, like every team does. I think we’ve hashed over the drafting of the best player vs a pitcher to death, hence my mimicing ENOUGH. I respect your view but have no problems with some swings and misses on many decisions. It has been my belief that one reason we draft surer bets, which are mostly non pitchers, is that we’d trade some of them for pitching. We haven’t done that much at all. Beni was not a prospect when traded for Wink. Pivetta was not a prospect when we traded for him and Seabold (who bombed.) I’m with you on it being the time to trade some everyday prospects for s young and controlled pitcher. Hell, add Yorke to the package!!!

I’m saying it now. If Yorke turns into a bust, like half our 1st picks have done for decades, kudos to you for being right. I’m not sure why this one bust, if he ends up being one, is so much more important than the 20 others. Is it because you called it? If the guy turns into a bust, I won’t lose a wink of sleep. Nobody has gushed over this kid in years. What’s the big deal? ENOUGH! As some wise poster said recently. lol

I was just trying to show who BTV equates to in the Sox system. I think many would be happy if we traded Sale and $17M for Teel.