moonslav59

How many Rule 5 players do we add to the 40? I'm guessing 6 or 7. Probables? Wikelman Gonzalez Luis Perales Grant Gambrell Stephen Scott Shane Drohan Possibles? Allan Castro Angel Bastardo Zach Penrod Justin Hagenman Luis De La Rosa Brock Bell Brainer Bonaci Ryan Fernandez Chih-Jung Liu Eddinson Paulino Doubtfuls? Rivaldo Avila Royman Blanco Zach Bryant Maceo Campbell Brendan Cellucci Felix Cepeda Juan Chacon Casey Cobb Nathanael Cruz Nick Decker Kelvin Diaz Jordan DiValerio Juan Daniel Encarnación Alex Erro Albert Feliz Ryan Fitzgerald Jhostynxon Garcia Bryan Gonzalez Alexis Hernandez Gabriel Jackson Lyonell James Gilberto Jimenez Christian Koss Robert Kwiatkowski Eduardo Lopez Matthew Lugo Elih Marrero Yorberto Mejicano Ryan Miller Andrés Núñez Yusniel Padron-Artiles Railin Perez AJ Politi Jose Ramirez Oscar Rangel Jorge Rodriguez Ronald Rosario Cesar Ruiz Johnfrank Salazar Cody Scroggins Reidis Sena Chase Shugart Karson Simas Nick Sogard Noah Song Dylan Spacke Joey Stock Luis Talavera Nate Tellier Michael Valera Brian Van Belle Diego Viloria Jeremy Wu-Yelland Ryan Zeferjahn

It's not a question of priority, unless maybe it comes down to Dalbec vs someone else, and maybe positional depth might matter. As I said, I don't think Dalbec will be on our 40, next year. I also don't think we add someone just to be a back-up to Casas, but we will need one. I'm just curious who you think it would be, assuming we don't add anyone for that role. I've already said I'd give Devers a 1B mitt and some reps, and I know you are not against the idea, but I'm wondering why you can't answer. Yes, my answer leaves open the possibility it could be Dalbec, but only because I see him being around #6-8 on the DFA list and we might need to DFA only 7-9 guys. If we sign 4+ FAs, Dalbec is certainly a goner, unless we only protect 4-5 Rule 5 guys.

So, your answer is nobody. Adding Duran, Mills and Ort brings us to 43. Add about 7 Rule 5, and we are at about 50. Minus Paxton, Duvall and JT and we are at 47. I have Dalbec on my list of 7, so it's not like we are disagreeing, but I am still curious who our back up 1Bman might be in 2024. Maybe we bring JT back. Maybe we bring Duvall back, who has started 27 games at 1B, but right now, neither is on that list of 49. My top 10 DFA/Trade list: 1. Ort 2. Gillaspe 3. Weiss 4. Llovera 5. Jacques 6. Garza 7. Dalbec or Mills (trade) 8. Dalbec or Joely (trade or refuse option) 9. Dalbec 10. Urias (trade or refuse arb) Others? Walter, DHam or the much discussed trade of an OF'er to make room for Rafaela and Abreu and a full season from Duran.

I do think his complaining about the clause was part of the reason we traded him. We were so lucky to get Craig and Kelly for him! Seriously though, the other trades worked out better: Lester for Cespedes (flipped for Porcello) Peavy for Escobar and Hembree (who was part of the Pivetta deal) AMiller for ERod

I'm just asking, who is the back-up, right now? Are you suggesting we add a 1Bman to the 40, over the winter? Just tell me who you see as the current back up 1Bman on the 40 or a Rule 5 addition. I'm projecting Dalbec will be DFA'd or traded, but as one of the last to be so. I'm curious who will back up Casas. We know Cora will want to rest him 12-15 games.

It will be even more greatly improved by Story playing more games at SS. Even Urias and Reyes at 2B should improve 2B defense. If we can get Rafaela to hit well enough to play a bunch of games in CF, our D could even end up a net plus. Here are our current positional rankings and values on OAA: Overall: 30th (-51) The next team is -34. 1B: T27th (-9) Casas is -10, so he'll have to improve 2B: 29th (-13) Reyes is -1, so if he plays more... (Urias -5/EValdez -5) SS: T 24th (-6) Story is +6, so a massive improvement is possible 3B: 28th (-11) Devers is -10 LF: T24th (-10) Yoshi is -9, but Duran is 0. Ref -1. CF: 30th (-2) Duvall is -3, Duran 0, Abreu -1, Rafaela +1 RF: T10th (0) Verdugo is +1. No position is plus. All but RF is bottom 7. We could see 1B, 3B and RF be about the same: SS: -6 to +12 or more (Story) LF: -10 to zero (No Yoshi) CF: -2 to +6 (Rafaela) 2B: -13 to maybe -2 That would add about 50 to the -51 score of 2023. Some big ifs, here but not unrealistic. If Devers and Casas can improve, we could see a plus team OAA without adding any out of system players..

Who is "anyone?" Devers? Fine, but I doubt it happens. Duvall? Gotta sign him, first. Urias? Yoshida? I'm not saying keep him solely for that reason, but it is a reason to keep him over about 6-8 others on the 40, right now. If we add 5-7 Rule 5 guys and 3 FAs, then he will likely reach the top of the DFA list, but until then, I see reason enough to keep him around. Hell, he's RF depth, too! Since everyone and his brother want to trade Dugo, he can back-up Abreu in RF, too! (from AAA)

On paper, losing Kimbrell and Kelly was pretty significant, but yes, that team looked very good, despite those losses, on paper. Declining production from returning players, especially those not past prime was unexpected, and that sort of thing happens, often, just as a bunch of players can all gel at the same time. Often, the manager and or GM are blamed for those declines, and I suppose some of the blame can be placed on them for not planning on some declines better, but there was a change at the top before 2019 even started. Yes, a lot of money was spent of bringing back Sale, Bogey and Nate, but basically no money was spent on anything else, and no more prospects were traded after the 2018 deadline. It seems like you have to continually seek to improve on paper, every year. Trying to stay even, usually results in declines. Not replacing Kimbrell & Kelly was asking for trouble, and we got it. Losing Betts, Porcello, Price and others, after 2019, without spending hardly anything to replace them was furthering the major shift in philosophy. I don't think the 2019 was as close to teh 2018 as we think, and the 2020 team was a shell of even the 2019 team.

Who are the 13? Bello Martin Jansen Crawford Pivetta Houck Whitlock Winckowski Devers Casas Verdugo Wong Abreu

Farm Leaders in xFIP 3.02 Bolden A, A+ 3.05 Monegro A, A+ 3.45 ICoffey A+, AA 3.46 Paez A (lead in WHIP at 1.01) 3.50 Fernandez A, AA 3.69 Dobbins A+, AA 3.73 Wikelman A+, AA 3.85 Rogers A, A+ Others: 3.98 Gambrell A+, AA 3.98 Bastardo A+, AA 4.00 de la Rosa A 4.09 E R-C A 4.15 Perales A, A+

...and the fact that our back up 1Bman will be ______?

It wasn't meant to be, but sure, I'd have enjoyed watching more had we won more the last couple years or gone further in 2021. I really did enjoy watching this season and even more than last season. I like watching baseball. There was a lot of good things to see, especially if you look for it.

I doubt Dalbec has much trade value. Other teams are looking at 40 man roster squeezes. They might figure they can just wait and claim Dalbec off waivers or someone like him.

We could sign Teoscar and trade Duran: LF: Teoscar CF: Rafaela/Abreu RF: Dugo DH: Yoshida I'd prefer we just bring Duvall back, too.

Good points, but both are still major budget additions before winter even arrives. Same with the nearly $20M added to SEA for Castillo and MG raises. We have the Devers raise and some arb raises to Pivetta and Dugo.

His swing was slow when they had him ranked top 20 to start the season.

Last game of the minor league season for the Sox was cancelled. Final Numbers OPS (350+ PAs) .938 Dalbec .930 Abreu .869 Rafaela .869 Anthony .858 Hickey (80-299 PAs) .977 Teel (114 PAs) .953 Cespedes (209) .933 Asencio (106) .911 Campbel (84) .893 Arias (159) .886 Brannon (77) .878 GRod (136) .875 Asigen (206) .870 Nunez (215) .864 EValdez (232) .847 Musett (164) .817 Salazar (240) .815 Jog Garcia (247) HR (XBH) 33 (50) Dalbec (493 PAs) 22 (34) Abreu (363) 22 (38) Kavadas (480) 20 (54) Rafaela (444) 19 (47) Scott (403) 19 (44) Hickey (359) 18 (51) Jordan (476) 17 (37) DHam (469) 17 (34) RHern (393) 16 (36) Binelas (328) 14 (45) Anthony (491) SB (CS) 57 (14) DHam 49 (8) Rosier 39 (7) Sikes 36 (13) Rafaela 30 (6) Liendo 28 (4) Ferguson

I'm just tired of adding DH/LF types. I think Duvall might be better on D in RF and CF, for sure. TH looks like a better bat, for sure. Bellinger bats lefty. I think we try to bring Duvall back and hope the new Duran shows up. They may put too much hope in Story to take up the slack on O by losing JT, and I'm not sure that is wise. Assuming we bring back Duvall and nothing else to the O and D, I see it this way: The defense should improve by a lot, but still looks below average: SS: Much better with Story over Kike & Co. (Reyes and Urias are decent back-ups.) 2B: Reyes and Urias are close to average and our 2023 defense at 2B was below average. CF: If Rafaela can earn this slot by hitting well enough, there could be an enormous gain, here, and a ripple effect across the corner OF slots. LF: Yoshida to DH, alone, improves the LF defense, as Duran and Refsnyder are better. So are Abreu and Duvall. RF: Dugo and Duvall would be fine. (Abreu as back-up is probably better than Refsnyder.) 1B: Casas should improve, but I thought the same about Dalbec. (No JT as a sub hurts.) 3B: Devers has been up and down. Counting on an up may be futile. C: I'm thinking most catchers improve as they reach their late 20's. I'm hopeful they do better, particularly with handling the staff. Many of the same pitchers will be returning, so maybe that will help on that front. On offense, losing JT will hurt like hell. He was the blood and guts of our offense. Counting on more PAs from Story, Duran, Urias and Reyes may not produce enough added offense to offset that loss. Counting on a returning Duvall to stay healthy and hit well maybe be a stretch. Counting on Devers to have a career year might be needed. Counting on Casas to improve seems like a good bet, as he seems like he learns quickly and adjusts well. Dugo is tough to project. Yoshida might have to greatly improve for our offense to improve. For most of the season, I took the offense for granted, as being top 5 or 6. Now, I'm not so sure. Counting on Rafaela, Abreu and EValdez plus other upcoming prospects might be what we end up relying on.

In the coaches defense, despite all these worthy criticisms, the team came to play. They made adjustments to the point where they were winning the O line battles and running very well vs a tough Ohio State defense. The ND defense looked very good until the prevent D trap every coach seems to fall into. We got burned on that one blitz where nobody picked up the slot receiver, and they spotted it and got a big play. The long rushing TD was just one of about 3 plays that killed us. (The blitz play and of course the long pass at the end that got them to the 1 year line vs the prevent D.) 3 bad plays on D is not bas vs a team like that, and it is something to build on. Yes, the coach needs to stop making mistakes like those for us to join the big boys, for good, but I was impressed by our play, last night. I know- I know, only winning counts.

Wasn't there a timeout before at least one of those last two plays?

Other Teams Winter Issues: Toronto: FA: Chapman, Ryu, Belt, Kiermaier, Cimber Last Arb Raise Pending: Vlad ($14.5 in '23), D Jansen ($3.5), TRichards ($1.5) Texas: MPerez, JOdorizzi, AHedges, NLowe, BMiller, MGarver, AChapman, CStratton, IKennedy, RGrossman, WSmith, TJankowski, JLeclerc (option) (About half their 26 man roster, but they will likely be big spenders) Houston: Brantley, Stanek & Maton is not bad, but they added Verlander's salary, so I'm not sure how much they will spend, this winter. The Alvarex deal starts kicking in raises. Tucker will get a big 2nd arb raise. Seattle: Teoscar Hern, TMurphy The Luis Castillo extension kicks in ($13M raise). Marco Gonzalez gets a $6M raise and Ty France gets an arb raise. Some of these teams might have easier paths to stay strong or get stronger for 2024, than the Sox, but I think a lot will have to do with winter spending budgets. BAL and TBR cannot be caught up to, on paper in one winter.

True, but I'm hopeful we have more winter spending money, and I still think having a lower number of key slots to fill or refill is a plus from previous winters and when compared to other contenders who may be losing more than the equivalent of JT, Duvall & Paxton. We also have more and better prospects to trade or promote than most other contenders, but there are a handful of teams that look impassable, due to their current foundation, their budget and their strength of farm. Again, I realize 2 of those 3 slots we need to fill are extremely difficult to fill, and the risk of swinging and missing is significant. It's not a sure thing we will win, if we do add 2 of the better SP'ers out there on the market (FA, trades and International.) They both have to work out well: pitch well and give us 28+ GS and 175+ IP. That is a lot to ask for. I get it. IMO, we should add 3 solid SP, in hopes that 2 do very well, but we need some budget space for a RH'd bat and maybe a LH'd RP. I'm not sure JH will allow us to approach the second tax line, and that is likely what will be needed. Approx $70M $28M SP1 $18M SP2 $10M SP4 $12M RH'd bat $2M LH RP (more if we non tender Urias and don't take Joely's option) If we go with 2 better sp'ers: $32M SP1 $24M SP2 $14M RH'd bat $??? LH RP (Joely and or Urais savings?)

Pivetta has had several very good to great stretches with the Sox, some of them very long. He's been hideous in several shorter stretches, but it would be nice to see him put a full season together. I'd consider extending him, but I'm not sure what I'd offer: $33M/3, including 2024's arb year? Would he take it? Good stretches: His first 13 GS'd with the Sox: 3.49 ERA/3.29 FIP, including a 9 start stretch of 2.89/3.75. He ended the 2021 season with pretty long poor stretch: 19 GS (1 RP): 5.00 ERA/4.91 FIP. He started the 2022 very poorly for 5 starts, then he pitched like he was our ace: First 5: 7.84/5.48 Next 11: 1.95/3.17 After 3 horrible starts he then went 9 GS: 3.80/4.23 (Last 28 of '22: 4.13/4.28) We all saw how he started this season: First 14 games (8GS): 5.65/5.14 Last 23 games (7GS): 3:40/3.52 Which Pivetta will we see in 2024? Chances are, both. I'm fine with planning on him as the #5 with Sale as the #6 and maybe Crawford or Houck as our #7, but we need to stop jerking these guys between the pen and rotation, so often. One guy, maybe. Two in a pinch, but this year we jerked 4 guys that have all had some enormous success in the pen. Crawford: 21 GS 4.76 ERA 8 RP 1.66 (Career: 5.24 as SP in 34 GS and 3.35 as RP in 17 gms.) Houck: 19 GS 4.92 ERA 0 RP N/A ERA (4.09 career in 39 GS and 2.68 in 33 gms as RP) Pivetta 15 GS 5.06 ERA 22 RP 3.07 (career 4.98 SP/ 4.19 RP) Whitlock 10 GS 5.23 11 RP 5.50 (but some great numbers in relief in previous seasons) Career: 4.76 in 19 GS and 2.69 in 79 gms as RP Note: Winckowski 0 GS N/A era 56 GM 2.96

Story is not "average defense" by a long shot. Duran should not be "dumpster fire," if we can keep him in LF.

Get two solid SP'ers and a RH'd bat like a 150 game Duvall, and we should just need the same amount of "things to go right" as all other playoff contenders. We could certainly see regressions from guys like Duran, Casas, Reyes, Crawford, Wink and several others, but with so many younger and promising players, it's easy to expect some will improve like many do at their ages. Hell, even Devers is just entering peak prime and could have a monster season in '24. Of course, he could do worse, too. Last winter, we had to replace Bogey, Nate, Wacha, JD, Strahm and Hill. This winter, we have to replace JT, Duvall and Paxton, and if the budget can go over the tax line, I think the new GM will have an easier time filling our needs. I know, filling TOTR slots is never easy, but with a ton of budget space and a group of prospects that are coveted by other GMs. I fully understand how a poor choice here or there can bring the whole house of cards down. We do need some things to go right, for sure, but so do 90% of all the other playoff contenders of 2024.