moonslav59

...and their inability to pay attention to details and accurate, consistent messaging.

Well said.

So, in effect, after subtracting the $17M we are paying, they get Sale for $21/2, or $10.5M x 2, actual cost. That looks better than our Kluber and Richards deals.

Wacha's numbers would have been better had he pitched for a better defensive team than BOS in 2022.

Is it delusional to favor Wacha over Giolito by a slim margin? Both are big question marks for 2024.

I'm not as high in FIP as you. I value ERA- and WAR more. I just printed the 3 year numbers, and BTW, 4.13 would be better than about half of the Sox primarily SP'ers since 2021. 2021-2023 xFIP (Blue= Almost all IP as SP) 3.38 Whitlock (much as a RP) 3.57 Schreiber (the guy you have little faith in) 3.59 Sale (lack of IP hurts) 3.63 Nate (1 yr w TEX) 3.72 Houck (much as a RP) 3.89 ERod (2 yrs w DET) 3.96 Bello (3.97 Giolito) 4.06 Pivetta 4.13 Wacha (2 yrs with others) 4.22 Wink (much as RP) 4.33 Perez (2 yrs w TEX) 4.38 Kluber ( 2 yrs w others) 4.53 Richards 4.56 R Hill (2 yrs w others) 5.63 Seabold (2 yrs w others. Last in MLB)

I know you are big on xFIP, and it a very telling metric, but you also use fWAR a lot and value other numbers, too. 2022-2023: xFIP 4.23 Wacha 4.08 Giolito fWAR 4.1 Wacha (5.7 bWAR) 2.8 Giolito (3.3 bWAR) ERA- 79 Wacha 119 Giolito (6th worst in MLB- 230 IP min) WHIP 1.14 Wacha 1.37 Giolito K% 21.3% Wacha 25.5% Giolito BB% 6.9% Wacha (14.4 K%-BB% 9.0% Giolito (16.6 K%-BB%) Do you really agree, it's delusional to think these two are about even with Wacha being slightly better? At the risk of being accused or cherry-picking a time frame, here is my usual sample size chosen: last 3 years: 71 pitchers with 350 IP from 2021-2023 xFIP 4.15 Wacha (525 IP) 3.97 Giolito (369 IP) fWAR 5.7 Wacha (5.2 bWAR 6.9 Giolito (7.6 bWAR ERA- 88 Wacha 106 Giolito K/BB 1.20 Wacha 1.58 Giolito Giolito passes Wacha by adding just 1 more year to the sample size, but is trending in the wrong direction.

It's really "delusional" to like this over that? 4.89 ERA (4.70 FIP) in 346 IP 3.27 ERA (4.01 FIP) in 262 IP Sure, we need a SP'er who goes 170+ IP over someone who goes 130+, but we have a bunch of pitchers who can give us 4.89. 2022-2023 Red Sox SP'ers ERA as a SP: 4.39 Bello 4.59 Crawford 4.76 Whitlock 4.85 Crawford 4.92 Houck To me, it's a close call on Wacha vs Giolito, but it's not delusional to like either one over the other.

He's 22, now, and was maybe 20-22 when this happened. Is it all that freaky to date a woman you think is 18 or maybe even looks 20-25? I want to hear all the evidence before judging someone.

If we are never going to sign a real ace SP'er, and it doesn't look like we have any pitchers on our farm any better looking than Bello or Crawford, eventually, we will have to trade prospects to get one. It does not have to be this winter. We could see how our prospects look for one more season, while also getting a better read on the future of Story, but at some point, I think we have to do what we did to get Pedro & Schilling and a ring, Beckett and a ring, Porcello plus Sale and a ring... TRADE! We aren't getting an ace for a 5 player package of #4 Rafaela, #6Yorke, #7 Perales, #8 Abreu and #9 Wikelman.

He's been playing 3B for 10 years in professional baseball (7 MLB + 3 minors) and played baseball at 3B, before joining the Sox system.' Yes, he has shown signs he can play very well at 3B for some short and moderate stretches, but he has never put that "ability to be a GG 3Bman" for nearly a long enough stretch to even come close to one vote for GG. I don't see it happening. No, 3B defense is not our biggest issue, but defense is pretty big, overall, and our 1B D sucked, last year, too. If Devers could play plus D at 1B, quickly, we could gain on D at 2 positions, at once, in theory. It would, however, force Yoshida to play LF, and he is probably worse than Duran/Refsnyder, unless we can trade Yoshida and improve at 3 positions with the moves.

No, and I mentioned EValdez can play 1B, while Casas plays DH vs RHPs. I mentioned Devers could play 1B vs LHPs, but if we don't want to mess with Devers, then EValdez can play 1B vs LHps and RHPs, whenever Casas DHs or is hurt. Abreed. I do think, if Cora can plan it out, so EValdez plays more vs RHPs, it would be better.

She prostituted her daughter? (Not the first time that has happened, I'm sure.) Or, she just let him "date her," and lied about her age, until she could extort him? Big difference on his part and culpability.

None of the FA pitchers are on the Sox, until we sign them. I'm not a big Wacha fan, but he's not as bad as many seem to think he is, and his GS and IP, while not great, are ranked in the top 65 in MLB over the last 2 years. There are 150 SP'er slots in MLB (5 per team x 30 teams.) 65th is almost second tier. I see him about like I do Giolito. He's pitched better the last 2 years, but Giolito has started more games and pitched more innings. If I had to choose: Wacha > Giolito for 2024 only.

I think every GM values Mayer highly, as they should. I do think he looks like the logical one to trade, since we have Story (4 yrs) and Grissom (6 yrs,) but it could end up as a selling low trade. (I doubt we get much for Yorke, unless we package him with Duran, Rafaela or someone like Houck/Crawford. Since the "full throttle" is a sham, I'd just wait for the expected bump in value in 2024. Maybe Story bounces back and builds up his trade value, and we deal him while calling up Mayer. Teel looks like a keeper, too, but it is early. Bleis deserves a chance to show his early promise after missing time with an injury. It's nice having a solid 4 like Anthony, Mayer, Teel and Bleis. I'm pretty sure at least one will end up underperforming, but I feel confident 3 will do well or 2 very well. I also like the next tier of Rafaela, Abreu, Cespedes and maybe one from Wikelman + Perales. I'm not as high on Yorke as soxprospects.com is, but he still has promise. (I put him tier 3.) I really like Anthony more, and our CF/RF need is now higher than SS/2B.

From 2021-2023, only 8 players in the minors had more PAs and a higher OPS than E Valdez at .889 in 1221 PAs. (One was Grissom at .902 and 1290 PAs) His splits seem to be a major concern: v R/vL 2023: .920/.703 2022: 1.206/.868 2021: .895/.713

EValdez does have 49 innings at 1B in the minors. Maybe he could play 1B vs RHPs while Casas DHs, and Devers plays 1B vs LHps, while Casas gets his 10+ days off from Cora.

Was it his 3.26 ERA that hurt, so much?

Any word on why the Mom was detained?

Taking reps at 1B will not help him at 3B, but will anything? He's had flashes of average or even plus D for some stretches. I'm not sure if it is a lack of focus, footwork, yips ow whatever, but he seems to have an issue with throwing more than the glove or range factors. I think he could become a plus on D at 1B, very quickly, but I think Casas deserves at least one more season to see if he can improve on D at first. Since Cora loves resting guys 10 games or more, I'd try to keep Casas's bat in the line-up as much as possible by playing him at DH 10-20 times to lessen the full days off needed. Since we have no back-up 1Bman on the projected 26 man roster, it makes sense to try Devers there. Who knows, maybe he'll like it. Then, we can start with all the trade Yoshida posts.

BTV had him over 50 before, and 44 is pretty high, but certainly it could go over 60 or 70 with a strong 2023 at AAA. We must admit it could fall below 30, too.

It's kinda funny. I guess looking at all the failures like the mixed-mess of 2020, Martin Perez, Richards, Martin Perez, again, and Kluber, performances like Wacha and Hill in 2022, look like Cy Youngs. His record has been pretty good the last 2 years, and 127+ IP in both seasons is more than any other Sox pitcher from 2022-2023. His 5.7 bWAR from 2022-2023 is pretty damn good. Fangraphs is not as kind. Fangraphs on Wacha: (only 69 SP'ers had 250+ IP in the last 2 years- about 2 per team!) 4.1 fWAR 49th (0.4 below Stroman, 0.1 below Morton and 0.6 better than Nate. Giolito was at 2.8.) 3.26 ERA is 22nd! And that is what catches many fans eyes. (Better than Monty, Cease, Kirby, M Kelly, Strider and many more big name SP'ers.) 79 ERA- is 21st 4.23 xFIP is 52nd (slightly below Pivetta, Sandoval and Dunning & just ahead of Detmers.) 102 xFIP- is also 52nd 1.14 WHIP ranks 24th (better than Sonny Gray, Framber Valdez, Monty, Pablo Lopez, Nate and more.) 14.4% k%-BB% is 49th (near Stroman, Kelly and Singer) One could ask, why so many write him off, while pumping up Giolito for his GS and IP. 2022-2023 346 IP Giolito (21st) This does have real value, but pitching well matters, too. 262 IP Wacha (64th) GS 63 Giolito (17th) 5.5 IP per GS 47 Wacha (65th) 5.6 IP per GS fWAR 4.1 Wacha 2.8 Giolito (and fangraphs is known for adding a lot of value for IP)

If we aren't going to try hard to win in 2024, I would not make a top prospect trade, until we see more from these kids and guys like Grissom, Rafaela, Abreu, Wong and if Story is bouncing back to his old form.

You could be right, but there could come a time, when we say, "I wish we'd have traded Mayer, when his stock was high." Of course, he could blow away the $44M value BTV gives him, too.

I can understand giving up on Schreiber. He may have just been a flash in the pan in '22. He only had 31 IP in MLB in the 3 prior seasons, combined. His 3.86 ERA and 4.52 FIP in 2023 could be who he really is, but he still had a 10.2 K/9 rate. It was his 4.8 BB rate and 1.2 HR/9 that hurt in '23. He did miss time in June, due to an injury, and was at 2.12/3.14 before going on the IL in mid May. 4.30/4.69 July 25 to Sept 12. 6.75/7.46 Sept 13-Oct 1 (last 7 games) Opening Day to Sept 13: 3.38/4.03 .688 OPS Against in 40 IP (.296 BAbip with an awful D behind him) 20 BB/ 45 K 4 HR