moonslav59

Agree 100%. He should only pay LF, in Fenway, when Devers or casas need a rest at DH.

I'm only for platooning LF due to Ref's amazing splits. Rafaela is my FT CF'er, unless he shows he can't keep the job. Abrue is there, in case he fails. Duvall is my FT RF'er, and Abreu is his back-up. Duvall should get his rest days when a RHP is starting, but he would not be a platoon player. One problem with this alignment is that Abreu may not get enough action to continue developing. He could start the year in AAA. (I guess if Abreu looks great in ST'ing and Rafaela sucks, we could flip the plan in CF. I'm not saying I'm thrilled with this OF aligment, but to me, it is a stronger area than our rotation and 2B- maybe catcher, too. If we keep spreading our funds out too thinly, we'll keep ending up with mediocre players at every slot. I prefer to identify 3-4 slots that need the most help, and spend it all on those 3-4 players. I think our roster depth is good enough to work out the other areas not yet really good. 1. SP1 2. SP2 3. RHB (OF, 2B, C) Duvall? Garver? 4. SP4 (If we go for 5, it would be 2B or C.)

We thought our front office was a joke. This is hilarious!

Replacing Dugo with Duvall makes sense. The budget cost should be about the same, and we should get something useful by trading Dugo. Our OF will still have some questions, especially if Yoshida is our FT road DH and half-time home DH/LF'er. DH: Yoshida LF: Duran-Refsnyder platoon (Abreu and Yoshida in some home games) CF: Rafaela,Abreu (Duran in emergency) RF: Duvall, Abreu (Refsnyder in emergencies) No added money spent on the OF allows for more to be spent on SP, 2B (trade?) and maybe C (Garver?)

MLBTR projects $12M/1.

I'm not optimistic we add 3 solid SP'er. I'm not sure we add 2. My guess is we add 1 plus some #4-5 slot type, someone we already have 5 like him.

I'm firmly on record for not counting on Sale for even 1 GS. This list is what I think the Sox will go with, and they will be disappointed, again. Forced to use Houck or Crawford as a SP. again, Fail to make the playoffs, again. IMO, Pivetta/Sale should be our 5th SP'er. We need to ADD 3 SP'ERS! Everything else is secondary.

To me, ideally, we'd start 2024 with Sale and Pivetta penciled in as our #5. If Sale is healthy, Pivetta is a long reliever- joining Houck, Crawford and Whitlock in that role. That, of course, assumes we add 3 SP'ers better than Crawford/Houck, and this is the "realistic thread," so more likely it might be set up like this: SP1 _____ SP2 _____ SP3 Bello SP4 Sale SP5 Pivetta (Houck/Crawford)

I think they have Teel undervalued due to a small sample size of work. For some reason, they have had Yorke high for a long time. I don't know why.

Agreed. Do you think the BTV value reflects that he would likely bring back more than Anthony and Teel combined? (Both are worth about $60, according to BTV.)

IMO, we need 2 SP'er better than Giolito and Mahle.

Not much. $22M x 2 is nice on the years, but it takes up too much AAV for my liking. I wouldn't be pissed, if he was the second best SP'er we signed or traded for.

He was really good in 1978 and 1979, too. RIP.

We need more than 1 solid SP'er. IMO, Anthony and Teel are the two I'd keep. It's not that I don't like Mayer, but those other two get me more excited.

Using MLBTR's projected salaries, who would you sign, if we have $70M to spend. (Add $9M if you trade Dugo or $5M for Urias for no salary in return.) 29M x 7 Snell (QO penalty) 25M x 9 Yamamoto (posting fee) 25M x 6 Montgomery 25M x 6 Nola (QO penalty) 25M x 6 Chapman (QO) 23M x 4 Gray (QO) 22M x 12 Bellinger (QO) 22M x 2 Giolito 22M x 2 Stroman 21M x 4 ERod 20M x 4 Teoscar H 20M x 2 JD 18M x 6 J Hader (QO) 18M x 4 Candelario 18M x 2 Maeda 17M x 5 Imanaga 16M x 1 J Turner 15M x 1 Montas & B Belt 15M x 3 Soler 14M x 1 Severino 14M x 3 Lugo 13M x 2 Clevinger, Kiermaier & Nick Martinez 13M x 3 Flaherty & Garver 12M x 1 T Anderson 12 x 2 A Chapman 12M x 3 Wacha 11M x 2 Lorenzen 10M x 2 H Bader 10M x 2 T Mahle 10M x 5 J-H Lee 10M x 4 J Hicks 9M x 2 A Rosario & Merrifield 6M x 2 L Hendriks Duvall not in top 50. I might like... $25M x 9 Yamamoto $25M x 6 Montgomery (no QO penalty) $13M x 3 Garver $12M x 3 Wacha That's $75M. I'd trade Dugo, McGuire and see if we can squeeze Duvall under the $70M line. (Keep Urias.) SP: Yamamoto, Montgomery, Bello, Wacha, Sale/Pivetta LR: Houck, Crawford, Whitlock, Pivetta/Murphy SR: Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Schreiber/Bernardino C: Garver, Wong 1B: Casas (Duvall/Devers) 2B: Urias, Reyes SS: Story (Reyes) 3B: Devers (Urias) LF: Duran/Refsnyder platoon (Abreu) CF: Rafaela, Abreu RF: Duvall (Abreu) DH: Yoshida (Casas/Devers)

Casas is a ROY finalist.

If the Sox want to sign a top pitcher and not have the QO penalty, it might have to be: Yamamoto (hefty posting fee) Montgomery ERod Who is next?

7 players get a QO ($20.325M): Ohtani Bellinger Chapman Gray Hader Nola Snell Baez opts IN Wacha opts OUT ERod and Stroman are FAs. Team accepts option for Morton (ATL), Hendricks (CHC) and Berti (MIA.) Beeks claimed off waivers by COL. Phillies claim Josh Fleming.

Many catchers get about 360-440 PAs, a year, but he's never gotten over 360. He's had very nice numbers at the plate, since 2019: .251/.346/.508/.854 Per 650 PAs .251 38 95 That would be a nice addition to the right side line-ups. We could trade or non tender McGuire. Getting him and Duvall might be enough for the offense.

I'm not sure how BTV determines who is "minors" vs "majors," but here are the top valued "minors" on some top AL teams: Red Sox: 60 Mayer 42 Anthony 29 Bleis 18 Teel & 17 Yorke Mariners: 19 Ford 19 Young 13 Gonzalez 11 Locklear 9 Clase, Emerson O's 69 Holliday 44 Mayo 18 Basallo 9 Fabian & Bradfield Rays 42 Williams 15 Taylor 8 Vasquez, Isaac & Ledbetter NYY 16 Jones 14 Hampton 12 Arias 11 Thorpe 7 Lombard HOU 8 Baez 7 Melton 7 Dezenzo 4 Mathews 3 Corona TOR 34 Tiedmann 15 Martinez 9 Jimenez 9 Barger 9 Nimmala MIN 48 Lee 46 Jenkins 20 Rodriguez 9 Festa 8 Mercedes CLE 20 Manzardo 16 Espino 15 DeLauter 15 Brito 9 Valera Only 3 of these teams have 2 players over 40 (BOS, BAL & MIN.) Only 1 of these teams have 3 players over 29 (BOS.)

Indeed. Us Sox fans see Teel as being worth way more than 18, but other teams have the same type prospects.

100+ IP as a SPer since 1967: Best ERA- 35 Pedro '00 37 Maddux '94 38 Gibson '68 39 Maddux '95 41 Rogers '73 42 Buchholtz '13 42 Pedro '99 & Kershaw '16 44 Gooden '85, Greinke '15, Clemens '05 45 deGrom '18, Clemens '97, Arroeta '15, Pedro '97, Verlander '22 Other Sox or ex Sox: 20. Clemens '90 21. Sale '18 24. Pedro '03 26. Kluber '17 27. Pedro '02 32. Clemens '06 35. R Hill '16 38. Pedro '01 39. Tiant '69 44. Saberhagen '89 45. Buchholtz '10 49. Anibal Sanchez '06 53. Tudor '85 19 of the top 53 pitched for the Sox at some point in their careers. Pretty Amazing that Buch has 2 slots in the top 45, but he never did it with 180+ IP. (That was always his downfall.)

Oooops. Yes, 2010 not 2013. My bad. Top Sox ERA- with 100+ IP since 2004: 42 Buch '13 47 Sale '18 54 Buch '10 61 Aceves '11 63 Lester '14 63 Sale '17 64 Dice K '08 68 Beckett '11 69 Schilling '04 70 Beckett '07 71 Lester '08 & Porcello '16 73 Pomeranz '17 & Lester '09 75 Lester '10 76 Wright '16 78 Buch '15 79 ERod '19 80 Price '18 81 Wacha '22 Buch has 2 of the top 3 and 3 of the top 17! Lester has 3 in the top 15.

Even if we go over the first tax line, I doubt we go over the second one. IMO, there will be finite winter budget. Spending $14M on Anderson to play 2B (and back up SS) would mean $14M less on pitching, CF/RF or a LH RP. I suppose we trade or non tender Urias, and the net budget addition would be about $9M, but that is about what Duvall might get, or the difference between Clevinger and Gray. Plus, Even if he cost only $10M, I might prefer Urias at $5M. He's 26 and has some nice upside. (Not really upside- just return to 2021 values.)

BTV places these values on our prospects: 60 Mayer 42 Anthony 29 Bleis 18 Teel 17 Yorke 17 Rafaela Recent Grads: 38 Casas 34 Bello 30 Duran 27 Crawford