moonslav59

"You may enjoy it" is so typical of your blather.

Either you care about the past or you don't, but it seems like the past does matter, when you want it to.

Just stop saying eye test, when you don't watch the games, and I'll stop bringing up how many game you DON'T watch.

I'd probably agree, but rookie year might be tough.

20-33%? I would not be surprised if some computer put it at 35-40% chance at sub .650. MLB had over 35 batters at .650 or lower with 300+ PAs in 2023. That's over 10%.

Like you said, he doesn't have "the data" 10-14 days ahead of time. I'm fine with a giving a day off to Devers, if the data says the RHP does well vs Devers, and maybe that happened some of those times, but it wasn't planned that way 2 weeks ahead, right? I do trust Cora's use of data, and still really like him as our manager. I just think he is wrong to lock days before knowing who is pitching or how hot the batter might be. Hell, if the batter gets cold, move up the rest day, if the pitcher matches the timing.

How is Wacha getting $30M "plus an extra 2?" 4 years/$26M (2023-26) signed by San Diego as a free agent 2/16/23 $3.5M signing bonus 23:$4M, 24-25: club option at $16M annually if club declines its 2024-25 option, Wacha has the right to exercise a player option for 3 years/$18.5M (24:$6.5M, 25:$6M, 26:$6M) performance bonuses for 2023 and any player option seasons: $500,000 each for 20, 25 games started. $1M for 30 GS He is guaranteed $7.5M/1 or $26M/4, if he takes the player option, after SD turns down the team option. Am I missing something? He gets $39.5M/3, if SD takes the option ($16M a year x 2). He is not guaranteed this. There isn't even a buyout. The thing is, even at the time, I would rather have Wacha at $39.5M/3 than Kluber at $10M/1. it's a close call, though, but $7.5M/1 is the true cost.

I agree, but is lower or much lower than .650 have a significant chance of happening? (I'd say yes.)

The three best being LHBs is a bit scary for our RHB needs, but things will change by the time those guys come up.

How is saying 2 weeks from Tuesday "spreading it out" better than saying in about 2 weeks? If we planned on next weeks, and we end up facing all RHPs, then okay, maybe he gets one day off vs a RH SP, but I can't see how locking up one specific day makes much difference, at all. Cora tends to give days right before or after a scheduled day off. I'm not sure about those benefits, but I don't have a big issue with that. Hold off with rest or give the rest a day or two early, if we are facing the wrong-handed pitcher. Hold off,m if the player goes 4 for 5 the night before. That's all.

Duran would have to really suck, and not just in ST'ing, to lose his 26 man slot. Someone has to beat him out of his slot.

You are winning me over on the need for a solid RHB. I don't think we can count on Story to come close to Youk's numbers, let alone Manny's. JD gave us that RH'd strength in 2018 (Bogey was very good, too.) Napoli and Vic shared the duty in 2013. Both did better than what I expect from Story on O in 2024. Our RH'd bats look bleak for 2024. Story (.624 v LHPs in '23) Refsnyder (.828 v LHPs in '23) Wong (.501) had massive reverse splits (as did McGuire) Reyes (.772) & Urias (.787) Rafaela (.645) Our LHBs v LHPs .875 McGuire (not sure we can count on another reverse split season) .824 Devers .817 Casas .749 Duran .746 Yoshida

The last question is a big one. I do think we trade LHB Dugo and sign RHB Duvall. (Teoscar is better suited for LF or DH, and we have too many of them, already.) With DH/LF Yoshida on the roster, I'm not sure the 26 should have Duvall and refsnyder on it, but Ref has been our best RH'd batter since 2022. DH: Yoshida/Refsnyder LF: Duran/Refsnyder (Abreu) CF: Rafaela/Abreu RF: Duvall.Abreu That is 6 roster slots for DH & OF. 2 catchers 4 IF'ers That leaves one slot for back-up IF (Reyes/Urias/EValdez) I could see us trading Dugo & Refsnyder, despite Ref's nice numbers vs LHPs. I can't see us trading Dugo and Duran while signing Duvall, but here would be that OF: LF: Yoshida/Duvall/Abreu CF: Rafaela/Abreu RF: Duvall/Abreu

I thought what happened in the past doesn't matter to you. BTW.... Rings in last 12: 2 BOS 2 HOU 2 SFG 1 ATL, LAD, WSH, CHC, KCR, STL Keep it balanced.

For what it's worth, here are the GS by position in 2023: C 105 Wong 51 McGuire (6 Alfaro/CHam) I don't see much change in '24, except a healthy McGuire with about 62-72 GS. 1b 115 Casas (was benched some, early and injured, later) 35 Turner 12 Dalbec I see Casas starting 142+. I'm not sure who will back-up 1B. (Devers? Duvall, if signed?) 2B- MAJOR CHANGES for 2024 51 Arroyo (gone) 44 EValdez 24 Urias 21 Reyes 14 Kike (8 others, including 4 by JT) I see Reyes and Urias splitting duty at 2B. 3B 149 Devers 7 Turner (6 by urias & Dalbec) I see Devers with 152-155 GS.) SS- MAJOR CHANGES COMING 54 Kike (gone) 35 Story (injured for first 3+ months) 30 Chang 18 reyes 9 DHam *8 others, including 5 by Rafaela) I hope we see 147+ GS by Story and the rest by Reyes/Rafaela LF- Maybe big changes coming 84 Yoshida (may DH near FT in '24) 38 Refsnyder (should platoon in '24) 20 Duran (may see big numbers in LF in '24) 9 Tapia (gone) 8 Abreu (may see more time, here) 3 Duvall (gone???) I see a Duran-Refsnyder platoon as improving the D and O from 2023 in LF. CF- Major question mark. 62 Duran (should be way less in CF) 56 Duvall (Even if he returns, it should be less in CF.) 11 Rafaela (more,) kike (gone,) and Abreu (more) '7 Refsnyder (should be zero) 4 Tapia (gone) A lot depends on Rafaela's bat. RF- Dugo or no Dugo? (Duvall or ____?) 135 Dugo (traded?) 20 Duvall (re-signed for RF?) (7 others) Mayve a Duvall- Abreu combo works out well. DH 98 JT 49 Yoshida 6 Story 5 refsnyder 4 Duvall 3 Casas 2 Devers Maybe we see 142 Yoshida, 10 Casas, 5 Devers and 5 Refsnyder

It's just as easy to plan on "a day off next week" and then adjust to the pitcher or situation. Locking into a specific day offers what advantage?

No, I actually pointed out that if they were health related, it's okay. "If a guy is hurt, I'm fine..."

Indeed, but that OF looks to be a step down on offense, and we already ranked between 11 and 16 in most key categories on O. I think trading Dugo and adding Duvall makes sense, and playing Duvall in RF (with Abreu) and LF (with Duran) might be a better idea than CF. If Rafaela stinks up the place on O, who plays CF? Duvall, again?

I agree. I no longer am saying we should spend all our winter resources on pitching. I think we need a big power RH'd bat. Duvall might be about as a low a bar I might set.

Are we going to hear this 200 more times before opening day 2024?

I get the argument that we did not know this was what Wacha could have been signed for, when we inked Kluber, but without a doubt, his contract was more team friendly. It's not even close.

So, it's all about the max in one season in the past 4 that makes a pitcher more durable?

Kluber had a major injury and was never the same. It was not his "age" that caused him to reach these IP totals since the injury: 36 in 2019 1 in 2020 80 in '21 164 in '22 Yes, Wacha has had more injuries and was never the work horse Kluber was, but he did have.... 127 in '19 34 in '20 125 in '21 127 in '22 Neither has been "durable," recently.

OF OPS .724 in 2021 with 240 RBI (many from Renfroe) .676 in 2022 with 218 RBI .783 in 2023 with 259 RBIs- your big stat. 90 rankings in DRS from 2021-2023 21. 2021 Sox +14 52. 2023 Sox -3 (about middle of the pack and better than 2022) 77. 2022 Sox -20 OAA 47. 2021 -1 76. 2023 -12 82. 2022 -14 But of course, your eye test on all 22 games you watched is most important.

6 is not excessive. 9 in 2023 is 2-3, too many. Plus, he started 2 games at DH. If a guy is hurt, I'm fine with as many days off as it takes. I'm not going batty, nor do I think others are over this, but I do disagree with giving a 26 year old nine days off, plus two at DH, above the scheduled days off. What irked me the most is that he seemed to schedule these "rest days" way in advance, with no regard to who was hot or what handed pitchers was going the day of rest. Devers was "rested" 9 days, but only 6 were vs a LHP. We faced 42 LH's SP'ers. It's not like Devers has horrible splits, but Cora did the same to players who do. It's that part that bugs me more than the total days off. Now, to the total games started at a non DH position: 149 Devers 135 Dugo 115 Casas 105 Wong 84 Yoshida 82 Duran 79 Duvall Most of these guys had injuries, really bad splits or DH'd a bit, so it's hard to read into "rest days" for any of them, but I don't think anyone came close to be tired out by excessive starts in the field.