moonslav59

That is likely, but with trades, sometimes there are a few moving parts going on, and once something is worked out, a deal comes together. Some feeler went out. Some frameworks were likely established. It could be that Brez is waiting to see if the price drops on Monty or Clevinger, before making a trade already agreed upon. It could be another team is involved in a trade talk with a team, but they are waiting on Snell or Monty, first. If they sign one, they pull out of the trade and that guy goes to the Sox, instead. Time is running out, and it seems less and less likely a big deal gets done with each passing day. I'm pretty sure the SFG will be signing 1-2 of the big 4 remaining- Snell, Monty, Carpenter & Bellinger. The Yanks may swoop in on the other pitcher. I'm not sure who else is in the mix.

Bloom was handed a mess, despite having a solid core of 5-6 players, of which one (2, if you count Price) was immediately traded, and 2 others missed the 2020 season.

I think any deal with Duran, not including Mayer, Teel, Anthony, Bleis or Rafaela would have to include Houck, Whitlock or Crawford plus Wikelman or Perales. I'm not even sure how good of a SP'er we can get with these 3 players.

Teams may be waiting on Monty and Snell to sign, before a certain SP gets traded.

It seems to me, the Astros have let more bid name players walk than the Sox, over the past 5-7 years. The always seem to have someone ready to step in, and they spend moderately to add, where needed most. They do not always hit on their signings, either. Most of their strength has come up through their system. They even had 5 homegrown starters in their rotation, a few times, here and there. Here is a partial list of players not extended or re-signed since 2017: George Springer (.852 OPS w HOU, including .953 his last 2 yrs, plus PO heroics) Dallas Keuchel (Cy Young winner and 3.66 ERA w HOU) Charlie Morton (3.36 ERA w HOU) Gerritt Cole (2.68 ERA w HOU and top 5 in CY voting, both years) Carlos Correa (.837 OPS w HOU & .860 PO OPS) Zack Greinke (3.89 w HOU, but was 37 y/o.) Justin Verlander (2 Cy Awards and a 2nd place finish in 4 years, plus PO heroics)

Shocking to the Post, but trading Duran is a well discussed topic on this site. It could make some sense with all the Tommy Pham talk, or Soler. I came to like Duran, last year, but I don't want him as our CF'er. I also think there is a significant chance he struggles, again. There is also a chance that the 2023 Duran is the real deal. Tough call, but if we get a solid SP'er for him, I'm fine.

I understand more than double the IP has way more value, and the 2.0 fWAR reflects that. He did pitch pretty well, though, and I do think xFIP comps can show how well he pitched, despite fewer innings. Also, I'm not a huge xFIP guy, and this is one example why.

Yes, but he could take Houck's slot in the pen.

Junis was a possible Plan C signing. He signed with MIL for $7M/1. He's been used mostly in relief, but did start 21 games since 2022. '22-'23 198 IP 3.69 FIP 4.18 ERA 1.29 WHIP Only a 2.0 fWAR His 3.67 xFIP since 2022 is better than Monty, Nate, Cease and others.

It would be nice for some pitcher in our system to just appear "out of nowhere," but I can't even see hardly any very far away pitchers with top of rotation promise. I know it's too early on many of the real young ones, but it really looks barren. For all the grief DD got for "emptying the farm" or "trading everyone away," one can view the group of young pitchers on the MLB staff, already as the best group of 3-4 homegrown pitchers we've seen in perhaps a decade. Bello Crawford Houck (somewhat hopefuls: Murphy & Walter) Bloom did okay adding a few to the big club, but hardly any decent pitching prospects. Winckowski Whitlock Schreiber (no so young, anymore) (somewhat hopeful) Kelly Our top prospects by soxprospects.com rankings: 7. Perales- DD 9. Wikelman- DD 11. Fitts- Brez 20. Monegro- Bloom (Wow, that's the best he left for Brez!) 23. Dobbins- Bloom 24. Slated- Brez 25. E R-C- Bloom 26. Guerreo- Bloom 27. Bastardo- DD 28. Mata- DD 29. Hoppe- Bloom 32. Walter- DD 33. Troye, 34 Rogers, 36 Gambrell, 39 Paez, 45 I Coffey, 49 J Riemer- Bloom 56. E Soto, 57 C Early, 60. H M ullins. 38. Penrod, 47 F Cepeda, 48. R Sena, 53 Zeferjahn, 55 CJ Liu- DD 50. H Olivarez, 58 N Judice

Astros give soon-to-be 34 year old Altuve a 5 year deal at $125M, much of it front-loaded. $15M signing bonus, the $30, $30, $30, $10, $10M. If they get tight with their money, and keep letting stars go, maybe this means Bregman, Framber or Tucker will not be extended- maybe 2 of them.

As expected, Kershaw to sign with LAD. Terms unknown. (He will likely be on the IL for months, to start the season.)

I think I'm a bit more high on Cespedes and Abreu than others, but I can certainly see how I might be wrong. Our top 5 look pretty nice. Rafaela might be the one most likely to fizzle, but if the guy can hit despite his approach, he could end up being the best. His D is that great! Bleis dipped due to injury, and was highly regarded, before it. Mayer has dealt with injury, so it's hard to get a read, but he was very highly ranked beforehand. To me, Teel and Anthony look most like "can't miss," but of course, any prospect can "miss." Once you get past the 5 plus Cespedes and Abreu, nobody looks all that great, although some could jump, a lot, this year. This could be the make or break season for Yorke. He is viewed as ML ready, but just might not be good enough to get the call, ahead of EValdez or even DHam. Wikelman and Perales might end up as decent pen arms, but they need to get improve or get promoted to AAA, first. I don't know much about Fitts, and he's already 24, but he may impress in 2024. Hickey is getting to the age, where he needs to show more and be decent at a position. Some young prospects could jump or fall, this year: 17: Asencio 18: Zanetello, A Anderson, Arias 19: Joh Garcia, M Alcantara, Brannon, Yuten, E Soto, F Encarnacion 20: Castro, Romero, E R-C, Paez, Ravelo 21: Monegro, Paulino. Jordan, K Campbell. C Early 22: Meidroth, BastardoSena. Riemer, Judice

lmao.

When you look at the success rate of top 100 prospects, yes, it seems pretty unscientific, but my guess is the success rate of the next 100 or two is even more hit-or-miss. I'd think they would place way more weight to the top 100, 150 or 200. (Maybe we have nobody from 88 to 150 or more.)

Re-treads redux.

I can understand the 2020 roster overhaul, but all those one year deals, trades and DFAs added up to major turnover and turmoil.

I keep seeing ex-Sox player signing with teams, mostly on minor league deals. We've had a lot of turnover!

I think that must be it. I'm not sure how many prospects other have beyond their top 5-6, anyone would get upset over losing, too. I get the pitching point, but I've never heard a rankings dropping someone over unbalanced positional prospects.

Like MLB players, trading 5 two WAR players for 1 ten WAR players is rarely worth it, having top prospects should greatly outweigh the lower depths of a team's farm. While our farm drops off a lot after our top 5, so do most teams after their top 2, 3 or 4. I don't think our next tier is all that bad or scarce: Cespedes, Abreu, Wikelman, Yorke, Perales, Joh Garcia, Zanetello, Castro and others. Since the mid summer rankings, we also added #24 and Slaten, #11 Fitts, plus a few others. We did lose #15 Drohan, who was free-falling and Victor Santos, Nick Robertson & Ryan Fernandez, but I think our farm depth improved after 2023.

Could be. We may not hit better vs bad pitchers, but it sure seems like we do better than expected vs the best pitchers and worse than expected vs the worst ones. Isn't there some site that shows player or teams OPS vs each pitcher?

I know. Did our non top 100 fall in value, that much?

Pham had an OPS+ of 95 from 2020-2022, then shot up to 111 in 2023 at age 35. Expecting anything like 2023, is a bigger stretch than hopes for just about all the other Sox players on the 26.

Many times we hit the better pitchers better than the no-name scubs.

So 2 tp pitchers and 2 top batter is much better than 0 top pitchers and 4 top batters? Yes, if batters matter less, then they should not rank them so highly.