moonslav59

Yes, this has been presented, many times. The fact that the Sox have said nothing, including a refutation does not mean it's true. Also, maybe no formal offer of $300M was made, but that "framework" was given, orally. I'm pretty certain no counter to the $400M Betts ask was ever even discussed afterwards. I'm guessing they knew they'd never come close to a meeting point in the middle. I'm not sure why they couldn't go from $300M/10 to 320M/11, at the very least, but these guys are hard-asses, when it comes to their own. I feel like Schill was the only "own" guy they paid more than what they felt he was worth.

I'm really not sure they were ever serious about bringing Bogey back, unless it was at a lower than market value cost. It's just my opinion. The lack of reported offers made over the years makes me wonder. They must have felt Bogey would never accept the kind of offer they wanted to give, at any point in his time, here.Or, they didn't care if he walked.

Or someone else- or someone to the IL.

.791 in AAA Guthrie (.357 OBP) .801 in AAA DHam (.363 OBP) Small MLB sample sizes: Guthrie blows DHam away in OPS: .726 to .438. Not much difference. If Guthrie can field better and play more positions, he might very well be above DHam on the depth chart.

There seems to be some sort of weird dynamic that goes on when "negotiating" with our own players. (I put that in quotation marks, because it's not really a give and take.) We seem to set a firm value on our players and never go above that line- or hardly ever. The weird thing is, we start with that "top number" and never budge. Why not tell Mokkie, "$280M/10." he says, "$400M," and you come back with $300M? The only time I can remember offering more after the first offer was with Lester, once the Cubs offer was known, and even that offer was questionable in its authenticity and motive. I can understand a team thinking they know, mor precisely, the value of their own players. I think $300M/10 was a decent offer and very near what most felt was "market value." Why not come back with at least $310M? Do they think that might appear more insulting than twiddling their thumbs in silence? Was an extra $10-20M really a no way position? It's all really very strange. For all we know, Betts might have said no to a $330 or $340M/11 counter-offer, so it seems it will always be somewhat unknown as to what extent the Sox "blew it." Maybe, he'd have said no to $372M/12.

M/L= MLB deal? No, it's under 50% chance.

Stadium capacity: 56K LAD under 38K BOS

Agreed. 0% Snell 10% Monty 15% Clevinger 20% some scrub on a ML deal (Notice the total is under 50%.)

The issue with IFA signings went beyond one lost season due to penalties. While many of Ben's prospects, including some IFA ones were traded for key pieces, there really was a long gap in IFA additions that made any impact for the Sox. Devers was called up in '17 and then Bello in late '22. (That's on Ben & DD) Major IFA Signings: '13-'14 Devers (Called up before Bloom) '14-'15 Moncada & Espinoza (traded by DD) + Rusney '15-'16 Mata (out of options and 1st chance for MLB in '24) Lost Season (Hector Velazquez) '17-'18 Bello & Rafaela '18-'19 Wikelman '19-'20 Perales, Castro, Monegro '21 Bleis

DHam sets a pretty low O bar, too. He does steal bases, but can he get on base at the ML level?

I'm not sure ERod was is "homegrown," but those 3 do rival, if not beat out, Bello, Crawford and Houck. ERod pitched 37 innings w POR and 48 w PAW, before his call-up. If you count him, then we can safely say we have the best 3-5 homegrown pitchers (now counting Whitlock & Winck, if ERod counts) in 7-8 years. Again, I'm not bragging on the greatness of these guys, but it is noteworthy that as bad as our fram looks, now, it did just produce the best we've seen in 8 years or so. If you don't count ERod, Wink & Whitlock, we might be able to say 10+ years.

Maybe, I should have said not great... or not as good as 2022... OPS+ 102>95 wRC+ 102>96 BWAR 4.9>3.8 is still good. fWAR 3.4>2.8 DRS 16>7 (despite 170 more innings)

Is he better than DHam?

He was not all the great, in 2023.

I'm not trying to credit or blame the GMs. I think you are reading that into my statement. I'm just saying, as bad as our farm looks for pitchers, we did just see the best 3 pitcher combination join the team in over 10 year. It's still not enough, but I do think it's true. Forget the GM part, although I do think it's notable. Name the last time a better 3 homegrown pitcher combo was called up within a 2-3 year period than Bello, Crawford and Houck. Bloom's guys, Wink & Whitlock are not technically fully homegrown products. If you count them and make a group of 5, who graduated in the last 3 years, it's been a while, right?

Yes, indeed, but the 3 from his time are better than any 3 from Ben or Bloom, for whatever reason- luck or otherwise. I'm not sure how far you have to go back into Theo's era to get to 3 better... maybe 2008 (Buch, Masterson & Bowden?) or for sure 2006 (Lester, Papelbon, Buch.)

Certainly, the GM was better, but their farm was the bigger difference, to me. We got Houck & Dalbec, and more recently Bello, Casas and Crawford. They got 6+ SP'ers, Tucker, Pena, and a few others.

The Red Sox agreed to a minor league contract with infielder/outfielder Dalton Guthrie.

Having Tucker for Springer, Pena for Correa and a bunch of home grown SP'ers to step in was more important than the GM, IMO.

No Beni comps? Y Gurriel? Reddick? Kimbrell- Osuna? You gotta admit, it's a pretty close comp, and one team survived the losses: the other did not.

That was insane. The one year, we get two decent comp picks, we mess it up.

I think BTV grossly under values Javier and Garcia. I'm not sure HOU does this for just one of them. I'm also not sure they would kick in $10M, let alone $25M, but I'd love this deal for the Sox. If we did this, we'd probably trade Jansen.

If you are going to include Beni and Porcello, who basically retired, then I'll add Beltran, McAnn and several others.

Good to see you around, Dewey. I have zero confidence we make another big move. I have very little confidence we can have a confluence of things going right in 2024 and see any kind of postseason glory. It's more wishful thinking than even hope, on my part.

Yes, I get that, but this guy did start 21 games in the sample period I provided, and that xFIP was pretty good for RP'ers, too, especially a bulk innings RP'er. I'm not saying I wanted him at $7M. We paid Wacha that. We paid Hill+ Strahm close to that.