moonslav59

Yes, that's why I added more sentences. I like the signing but thought it was an overpay. Maybe I should not have said "major overpay."

What about from 2021 to 2022, where he was at the 26th percentile in xFIP? (That's not 40-60%.)

How about fangraphs giving him a value of under $100M over his $217/7 year deal? I thought it was a major overpay, due to the 7 years we needed to give him to get him to sign. $32M x 4 would have been more like it. $31M x 5 would have been pushing it, to me. Look, these types of statements are clearly opinion-based. Assigning dollar value to production value is hard enough. Assigning it to projected production value is always a contentious thing.

Of course, some of the largest and longest deals work out for the team. IMO, more than half don't. I don't think Price gave us what we hoped for or expected. I do not think he earned that contract. Scherzer did. I was fine with the Price signing. He looked like as sure of a bet as you could hope for, on the day we signed him. (Scherzer did, too- the year before.) I thought it was a necessary overpay, at the time.

That's not the only way to view something as being an overpay or major one. One could argue, those two were also overpays that ended up working out.

Avoiding context is easier: I get that.

So, all but 7 were expected to help the team win- not hinder it or be near enough to average. You don't win, too often, with 8 stars and 32 replacement level players, or 8 stars, 12 good role players and 24 replacement level players.

That does seem to be what the whole season depends on- along with plus health.

List the 21 not needing an upgrade. (Remember Porcello was a sure goner. We can argue about how we coulda-shoulda kept Betts and maybe Price, but go ahead and count them in your 21.) The 12 Man Foundation: Betts, Bogey, JD, Devers, JBJ, Beni, Vaz Eovaldi, Price, ERod, Porcello (Sale on IL) The Supporting 8 Holt, Moreland, Leon, Marco Hernandez Workman, Barnes, Josh Taylor, Walden The 20 that was in serious need or upgrading, going into 2020 (Some may have forgotten just how bad the bottom of our 40 was, when DD departed.): Brian Johnson (5th SP) Ryan Brasier H Hembree Marco Hernandez Sam Travis DHern Cashner H Velazquez Ryan Weber Colten Brewer Josh A Smith, Lakins, Chacin, Shawaryn, Poyner, T Kelley, C Owings, Gorkys Hernandez The AAA team was basically this: Kyle Hart Daniel McGrath Teddy Stankiewicz Tanner Houck Domingo Tapia Jenrry Mejia Austin Maddox Zach Putnam Erasmo Ramirez Kevin Lenik C: Oscar Hernandez, Jake Romanski 1B: Ockimey & Witte 2B: Deiner Lopez 3B: Dalbec SS: CJ Chatham/ T-W Lin LF: Sturgeon/Brentz CF: Matheny RF: Rusney DH: Chavis Other top prospects below AAA: 3. Casas 6. Groome 7. A Flores (RIP) 9. Feltman 10. Mata 11. Howlett 12. Decker 13. Duran 14. D Diaz 16. Jimenez 17. Northcut 18. Scherff 19. D reyes 20. Schellenger

I felt the Price signing was a major overpay, but a needed one, at the time. We need one, now.

It sure looks like that line in the sand was never going to be crossed. With other players, maybe not. DD did get Bogey to sign an extension. It was the opt out that killed us. Had he been able to give more without the opt-out, we'd have had one less thing to bitch about.

I think so, too, but we'll never know.

Wrong.... again.

Did we, or did we not have 20 players needing immediate replacing and upgrading from the EOY 2019 roster? (I thought this was something we could all agree on.) I'm not even counting the loss of Betts, Price and Porcello, who we knew we'd never replace, in kind, on that budget.

A #2 is NOT average.

No, he was 20-33% from '21-'22 in most categories: 26th% in xFIP.

I think we were talking about production levels before 2023, but yes, counting those 3 seasons where he totalled 71 IP end up making his avg fWAR lower than his true skill level. 9.9/5 is 2.0 AVG 9.9/4 is 2.5 AVG to AVG+ 9.9/3 is 3.3 AVG+

Going by what MVP said, you'd have to subtract 2023. He said, "before 2023, he was average." That's 9.9 fWAR /6 years or 1.6 per season.

That also seemed like the time period, JH was more likely to say, "Yes."

Bloom had 20+ slots to fill in 2020 and a tiny winter budget, so of course he had to add more. He was forced into quantity over quality. Once we hit 2022 and 2023, that changed, or should have.

But what is the expectation when signing guys to $1-$5M deals? I'm thinking .333 is about average.

If you combine every year, before 2023, he was average. My point was from 2021-2022, even in xFIP, MVP's go to stat, he was top 40%. (He was top 26% in xFIP.)

Schwarber wanted a lot of money, so it's hard for me to say it was a blunder not to outbid DD for him. Again, we're always loaded with LF'ers and were back then, too.

It's not about my like of Duvall in RF: it's more about thinking O'Neill is an injury risk, too, as well as a declining defensive OF'er. Again, I'm not sure why we fixate on OF'ers who really have no business playing CF or RF, especially in Fenway. Yoshida Duran O'Neill Refsnyder Why add Soler or Duvall to the LF/DH mix? I'd rather we just go with... LF: Duran/O'Neill/Yoshida/Ref CF: Rafaela/Duran RF: Abreu/ O'Neill Use every penny left on upgrading the pitching staff.

Good point. We also know, Nate would have taken the deal Bloom first offered, so that was a huge mistake. The Eflin deal seems like one we could have bid up to the point where the Rays moved on, or where Eflin gave up on his like for living near TB. We could have had nate and Eflin for the total Story money. What makes it worse is, they'd still be on our roster, now!