moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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I’m usually big on the last 3 year sample size for players, although his trend is scary. Here is where Giolito has placed in some key categories since 2021: 151 pitchers with 200+ IP 6th in GS w 94 45th in K-BB% at 17.9 46th in fWAR at 6.9 68th xFIP 3.97 109 in ERA 4.43 109 in ERA- at 106 137 inHR/9 at 1.6 If you divide 150 SPs by 5 starters per team, Giolito slots as a… #2 fWAR #3 xFIP #4 ERA- #5 HR/9
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The optimist view: 167 GS since 2018 is 5th most in MLB. He’s been a horse. 4.14 xFIP in that time places him in the middle. The pessimist view: 4.48 ERA places him in the bottom third tier since ‘18. (That’s worse than Kluber,Matz, Paxton, Stroman and many others.) 105 ERA- is still bottom third, as is his BB/K and HR/9. Last 2 year numbers are frightening: 119 ERA- (100th out of 108- just barely above Kluber), but his 4.08 xFIP places 62nd.
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He’s a risk. That’s not a maybe.
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I’m not sure we will spend the $37M or so we have left to stay under the tax line. Staying $5-9M under seems to be a common thing, lately, so maybe $30M might be what Brez still has to work with- emphasis on “might.” That’s a lot of money, especially if we focus it on adding just 2 players. IMO, SP2 and 2B jump out as the highest need areas. A trade could fill one or allow us to fill 3 higher need slots. I know tge rumours have us out of the Monty race and maybe Luke warm on Snell, but $37M might be enough to add Monty or Snell plus Chapman. Trade for Polanco or Drury might put us over. Monty or Snell plus polanco or Drury certainly works. Stroman or Imanaga Chapman Polanco or Drury would leave us under the tax line. .
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I’ve always disliked building a rotation from back. Add a 1 or2 and push down what you have already. $19M is not chump change, although the short deal mitigates the risk a bit. That being said, I do prefer Giolito as a SP and Houck or Crawford in the pen than forcing one of them to try and start 30 games and 175 IP.
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I would, but that does not mean I want to hand him away. BTV gives him a value of 34, which I feel is high, but I’d prefer to go with Rafaela and Abreu in CF than Duran. Adding T.H and O’Neill looks OK for corner OF, but not so much if it forces Duran to FT CF. That’s not a good defensive OF.
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I don’t disagree. I do think it will be somewhat better than 2023, if… Story stays healthy We add a decent defensive 2Bman (O would be nice) Casas improves (not a sure thing)
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Our pattern has not changed, except maybe Giolito offers more hope than: M Perez Richards Kluber (Wacha & Hill did OK)
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I would not add Teel. They would probably not want Yorke. Other BTV additions to my initial offer that bring it close to even would be: Rafaela Schreiber Winckowski. Or just offer: Mayer Houck or Crawford Mata Or Mayer Duran for Luzardo and someone else, maybe Berti (can play 2B & OF) [/b]
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Me, too. Mayer, Mata and Perales
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So, as it stands, now, I see it like this: SP: Sale, Bello, Giolito, Pivetta, Crawford RP: Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Schreiber Houck, Whitlock, Slaten, Mata (out of options) C: Wong/ McGuire 1B: Casas 2B: Reyes/ EValdez SS: Story 3B: Devers LF: Duran/ Refsnyder CF: Rafaela/ Abreu RF: O’Neill DH: Yoshida
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The king troll returns!
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He’s only got 2 years, but I’d kick the tires. I’d rather trade for Luzardo. Why not keep the prospects and just sign Monty or Snell? Stroman or Imanaga would improve the team but would still be a punt in my eyes.
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Well, at least this guy is known to take the ball every 5 days, no matter what. IMO, the best part of this signing is that it keeps one of these guys in the pen: Houck Whitlock Crawford
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This should not be on the realistic thread!
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One source has the Sox under the tax line by $37M, for whatever that is worth. In theory, that’s likely enough for… Monty or Snell and ______
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And $1M in a performance bonus.
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MLBTR sometimes hits the target, well. On the Giolito signing... top reclamation target in the rotation class
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Why, because Bogey’s deal looks better?
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That’s how I see it. The rest are or were 3rd or 4th tier, including Giolito.
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That’s how I feel. I hope to hell I’m wrong. I’m just sick of signing guys based on the hope the regain what they once had. Hey, we broke the$10M barrier for a SP! Not the guy I’d do it on. I would not be too upset, if he ends up as the second best SP we acquire, this winter, but I fear he the best we will add.
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So, even the great DD can only do one thing at a time?
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I think there is value in showing players loyalty. At times, it hurts the team more that that value, IMO.
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It was a horrible choice. I do t think calling the choice stupid is overkill. I would not call Cora stupid over a few choice we view as stupid.
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Good point, but our rotation still has 2 holes in it.
