moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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So, O'Neill might miss close to the same time Duvall missed.
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I see Wong at 25th and McGuire did not have 200 PAs as a catcher: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&filter=&players=0&qual=200&season1=2023&season=2023&type=8&month=35&pagenum=1&pageitems=50 If you enter the "primary position," yes, they both place just outside the top 30. If you bring the PAs to 300, to get the top 30 catchers, Wong places 23rd.
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Indeed. It's somewhat interesting that some of our current pitchers on the MLB club were not as highly rated as some that never made it or are not with the Sox, anymore. Highest soxprospects.com rankings in last 8-9 seasons: 1. Groome 2. DHern, Mata (is out of options in '23) 3. Espinoza, Owens 4. Song 5. Walter, Kopech 6. Drohan, Shawaryn, Beeks, B Johnson 7. Seabold, Ranaudo 8. TWard, Feltman, Scherff, Raudes 9. A Ramirez, Lakins On the Red Sox big club: 3. Bello 4. Whitlock 5. Houck 9. Winckowski 16. Crawford
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I guess. I'm not sure we should just expect JH to do what others are doing, even if they are being reckless. That's not to say, I don't think he should spend more. The thing is, we could sign Monty and Duvall or Clevinger and probably still be below last year's payroll. To me, that is going too far, and is unacceptable to me, for what that is worth. I don't expect JH to spend like the Mets or LAD or even have a spurt like TEX just did, but we can and should compete by staying near the Tax line, every year. We should not be 14th in spending. I agree.
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Bingo!
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The state of catching is pretty bad, these days. I think Wong's ceiling is near an average starting catcher. Catchers often reach their peak value from ages 29-31, some like VTek, around 30-34. BTW, at age 27, placed 25th in fWAR at +0.7, last season. bWAR was more generous (+1.9.) In 2023, you needed a 1.2 fWAR to be in the middle tier (#11-20th.) I think Wong can reach that. He may not, but he can. Also, McGuire had a 1.3 fWAR in 2022 and placed 19th. If we can get both catchers to be somewhere in the 15-20 range, we'll be okay. My guess is Teel will boot McGuire off the roster in a year or two.
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I think we can close to 98 with O'Neill & Abreu, but I can understand thinking it is unlikely we match it.
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One problem is spending a larger percentage of winter funds on everyday players (and the pen for 2023) over the rotation. In earlier years, we spent way more on the rotation: Lackey Price Sale extension Nate re-sign Not only that, the money we did spend on SP'ers were largely failures: Perez Richards Perez II Kluber Only Wacha and Hill worked out okay to well. JH is part of the problem, for sure, but our CBO priorities changed and they swung and missed more than previous ones- on the rotation additions.
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I'm not arguing against this point. I responded to the "5 year" statement, by pointing out that our highest payroll,e ver was within those 5 years. Two other years were in our top 5- top 7 or 8 when adjusting for inflation. That leaves the last two years- not the last 5. I also pointed out that part of the reason we dropped in the payroll rankings was due to sharp increases in spending by several other teams. It's not the only reason. Surely, I know JH has reigned in spending. 2020 was a major pull back. 2023 was basically standing pat, as he just about replaced the salary he lost, but other jumped over us. This winter is another major pull back, which is his second in 4 years. Together, those two years are a major reason we dropped to the middle of the pack. Other teams spending way more than before is also a major reason. These two points are not contradtictory or apologetic.
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With expected jumps by one or two far away prospects, maybe we can get that number to 3!
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The defense at 2B will be better, even if Reyes starts 140 games. Gio should get 30 GS to help replace the 39 by Sale & Paxton. Pivetta should take the other 9. I think it is close to even. You mention the 3 biggest losses on O, and it is very significant, but Dugo's O was not great, and the addition of all the PAs lost by guys like Kike, Arroyo and others needs to be factored in, too. We added O'Neill, Grissom and should see more PAs from Story, Casas and Abreu. I'm fine with saying the O might get slightly worse, but to me, it looks close to the same. I'm thinking Yoshida will be better rested and may not fall off a cliff, like he did, last September. I think Grissom's O is way better than our clown carousel at 2B, last year. I think all this should come close to making up for the loss of JT and a 4 months of Duvall.
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I disagree with your point, but feel free to believe what you want.
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and still had over half the seats empty.
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Kopech has had one decent year with 25 GS and a 4.49 FIP. Houck has a career FIP of 3.57.
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On paper, it looks like we have about an equally bad rotation, and the pen is about the same. The defense should improve, significantly. The offense may be about the same, but a lot will depend on Brez's guy, Grissom, young player improvement and the health of Story. The farm looks marginally better with the additions of Fitts, Campbell, Weissert and a couple others. I think time will tell, but this looks eerily like Bloom's first year or two. The budget restrictions prevent filling all the holes, at once, unless the CBO decides to spread the finances thinly, and we likely get mediocrity at every hole we try to fix. At first glance, the $19M spent on Gio looks like a change in philosophy, but when you subtract the $10M saved on the Sale trade and the loss of Paxton's $4M deal, we've spent less on the rotation than in 2021, 2022 and 2023.
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I totally agree, and the record breaking 2019 budget did not reflect the loss and no replacement of Kimbrell & Kelly. Certainly, mistakes have been made throughout our whole system. No one person is to blame, despite our societal need to do just that.
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It's funny how our highest payroll ever was in the last 5 seasons (2019.) Also, our 3rd, 4th and 5th highest, ever. If you adjust for inflation, 2016 might sneak into the top 5. JH has kept spending. His CBO's did not spend wisely. Other teams raised spending my huge amounts. To me, this winter and the one before 2020 are the only two egregious underspending seasons in the last 5.
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Our highest picks: 4. Mayer '21 7. Beni '15 7. Ball '13 12. Groome '16 14. Teel '23 17. David Murphy '03 Previous century (top 15 only): 3. Mike Garmen '67 4. Ken Brett '66 5. Billy C '65 7. Nixon '93 12. Nomar '94 12. Adam Everitt '98 12. Tom Fischer '88 13. Andrew Madden '77 13. Noel Jenke '69 14. Greg Murphy '86 14. John Marzano '84 15. Andy Yount '95 15. Otis Foster '75 15. Jim Rice '71
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Was Kopech a "hit?"
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I will say, it seems to be more peaceful, around here, lately, despite the woes that face us sinners, this season.
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He's been really good for a long time. Pinpoint control is his big thing. He only walked 4% of the batters that faced him.
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Sox listening to offers on Jansen, Martin and Schreiber... https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/red-sox-remain-open-to-offers-on-jansen-martin-schreiber.html If it's to free up money to sign Monty, fine, otherwise, let's just have a full firesale and rip off the bandaid.
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This one is a good loss.
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Baseball is a strange sport, huh?
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Before Sept 4, 2023, we had these records vs AL East teams: 3-3 BAL 1-7 TBR 7-3 TOR 8-1 NYY Total: 19-14
