moonslav59

I totally agree. Trying to slightly improve your 4th or 5th starter is not winning us a ring. Even significantly improving your 3rd starter is not ever going to be enough, unless you already have a solid 1-2, which we are far from having. I do see Monty as a solid #2. He may even be a top 30 pitchers, which might make him a technical #1 in MLB. At this point, he looks like the best option. I'm not expecting us to sign him or Snell. I'm doubtful we even sign Imanaga or Stroman, but part of me is holding out hope that the reason these guys aren't signing is that they are waiting for the Sox to "clear some budget space," so they can make a winning offer. I know, I know- fat chance!

Good post. I will add that the Sox were making money hand over fist for the 30 years prior to the 2004 ring, yet we kept watching, knowing we probably could have won a ring had we signed Catfish Hunter or one of the many studs other teams signed from the 70's to the 90's. Those teams did seem like more fun to watch, despite some years where they looked awful. We also had the continuity of players, many homegrown, that we could become attached to without seeing them all traded or bolting to free agency. (That late 70's purge as the exception.) While I know many top prospects never pan out, I can't help but be excited about our top 4, now. I also think 1 or 2 from the next 5-6 will be impactful. We have a core of 24-29 year olds that are under team control for 3+ years, so I do believe there is a light at the end of the tunnel, except for ONE GLARING HOLE: STARTING PITCHERS! We have enough budget space to sign a SP'er or two and depth of position players to trade for one or two. We just are choosing not to do it. Maybe the grand plan is to do it, next year or in 2026, but I'm tired of waiting. Giolito is just another Kluber, Richards, Perez or Wacha in many ways. I do think he has a better chance at doing well than any of those did, but he is basically a reclamation project at double the pay. I'm still far from optimistic about 2024, but I have not given up on the extended future. Unless a change is strategy is made, I won't be optimistic 1, 2 or 3 years from now, either.

Fans almost always judge in hindsight, although in Story's case, we all knew he has arm issues, when we signed him. If you look at today's FA prices, and the numbers Story put up, even if just looking at his away numbers while with COL, $140M/6 looks llike a good deal. I'm not buying the idea that we should wait until we think we can win to pounce with spending. While I do think the team core might look better in 2025 or 2026 than 2024, we could add some pieces that could help us now and then. Maybe Gray's age is worrisome for 2026, but we did not have to sign Ohtani or Yamo to get to serious competitive levels. Hell, I see a way we can still get to a point where we should be playoffs competitors: sign Monty, Stroman or Imanaga and Teoscar. This would likely put us over the tax line, but not the second one, and if we traded Jansen or Yoshida, we could stay under the line, It's not rocket science. We can compete and still keep our top prospects intact without going over the tax line.

I agree, and our long term future is the best aspect of this team, except SP'ers. You mentioned the big 5 pitcher additions: Pedro, Schilling, Beckett, Lackey and Sale and in almost every case, they were coupled with another great, and at other times some complimentary SP'er were added to increase our odds of winning. Schill joined Pedro on a staff that already had DLowe and Wake (another addition from before.) In 2007, We had Beckett paired with Shill, but also had added Dice-K, and Lester was beginning to mature. By 2013, Lester, perhaps the best homegrown SP'er this team has produced since Clemens, was joined by Lackey (FA) and Dempster (FA). Doubront (MiLFA) & Buch made for a pretty solid 5. Injuries forced the addition of Peavy at the deadline. One SP'er you failed to mention was Price, who came before Sale. It was no fluke that team was the best ever as other additions were far from slouches: Porcello, ERod & Nate- all from trades. That rotation had no homegrown SP'ers, except Brian Johnson with 13 GS. 6 of the top 7 SP'ers by GS were acquired by trade (5- the 4 mentioned plus PomPom) or FA (1- Price). We have proven we can win by adding SP'ers, mostly by trade. The Price and Lackey FA signings were important, but not as impactful as the trades. I do also agree with Dipre: we need to fix the SP'er acquisition & development program, and soon. It does look like some changes have already been made, but it will be years before we see results- good or bad. In the meantime, I'll continue whining about the payroll and lack of focus on adding SP'ers via trade or free agency.

Here is how BTV views our 4 winter trades: ATL: Sale -5.7 + $17 Cash BOS: Grissom 17.1 (net +5.8) SEA: L Urias 1.2 BOS: I Campbell 1.9 (net +0.7) Combined (2B + P matches up): ATL/SEA: Sale, $17M + Urias= 12.5 Boston: Campbell & Grissom= 19.0 BOS: +6.5 ___________________________ STL: N Robertson 1.6 + V Santos 0.4 BOS: O'Neill 5.7 (net BOS +3.7) NYY: Verdugo 4.8 (net +1.9) BOS: Fitts 2.1, Weissert 0.8, Judice ??? Combine 2 (RF + Ps) STL/NYY: Dugo + Robertson + Santos= 6.8 Boston: O'Neill + Fitts + Weissert= 8.6 BOS: +1.8 Overall: BOS +8.3 FA Signings: +0.9 Giolito (Value: 39.4/ Salary 38.5) +0.7 Max Castiilo (3.8/3.1) Rule 5: +0.9 Slaten

lol! .

Hard to know. They did lose JD. It might depend on what we pay and or expect back. I'm not sure who wants him, assuming at a discount rate, at some degree.

Good points, and I did say Giolito probably equals Paxton + Sale, but the rotation was our big weakness, and looks no better, on paper, IMO. I do think it is natural to compare last year's team to what we think this year's team looks like to see if we can expect better, about the same, or worse. Of course, nothing is for certain. I think I have reason to not be optimistic, right now. I do realize the winter is not over.

It's not, but normally, that happens when the team looks like it improved on paper- not always, but usually. Yes, the winter moves are not over. I'm not broken up over losing Sale, Dugo and Urias. (I expected the last two might happen.) Losing JT and Duvall is pretty significant, and maybe O'Neill and Grissom can make up for that (or upticks from more players than not.) Losing Sale and Paxton may seem like a plus, but their GS'd ranked 4th and 5th and 39 GS is almost 1/4th the total. Giolito is known for starting 30+ games a year, so that comes close to matching the 39 GS lost and 199 IP, too. The rest of the players lost look to be addition by subtraction, and our depth looks good enough, so we can expect improving on their numbers. About 200 PAs by Urias and Tapia at .700. About 650+ PAs of sub .640 OPS by the others lost, combined. Kluber, Bleier, Llovera, Ort, Brasier and others combined for a putrid 150+ IP. Hopefully, we see just 0-5 IP from the likes of Jacques, but there is no guarantee Campbell, Criswell, Mata, Slaten, and others do better. How well will Schreiber and Bernardino do? Were they just "flashes?" Hell, soxprospects has Wink starting in AAA, so that is a sign our pitching depth is pretty good, but again, to me it looks a lot like we are repeating the quantity over quality plan, over and over, with the same results. Maybe as spring approaches my optimism will return, but I think I'll need a big boost or two with some significant additions by then.

I'm thinking we have less than 1% chance at landing Snell. Less than 25% at landing Monty. Less than 40% at Imanaga or Stroman. If you add all these up, maybe we have a 50% or better at landing one of these 4. Then, maybe 50% at landing Teoscar or Duvall. Maybe less that 50% at adding another SP'er, assuming we get a top 4, like Paxton or Ryu. I might be overly generous with these numbers.

Me, too, and there is still time to make some additions, maybe some quite significant ones. So far: Lost: Turner (626/.800) Dugo (602/.745) Duvall (353/.834) Urias (109/.698) Sale (103 IP/4.30 ERA) Paxton (96 IP/4.50 ERA) Kike (323 PAs/.599 OPS) Arroyo (206/.638) Chang (112/.552) Tapia (97/.701) Mondesi (None) Kluber (55 IP/7.04 ERA) Brasier (21/7.29) Bleier (31/5.28) plus a bunch of minor leaguers who saw some ML time. Additions: Giolito O'Neill Campbell Slaten Fitts M Castillo C Criswell Weissert plus some minor leaguers who may get MLB time (Olivares, Benitez, R Perez, M Contreras, J Westbrook and more...) This is not the overhaul I'd hoped for, but maybe more is to come, shortly.

Who is Juan Soto? LOL.

Yea, that was kinda bogus mentioning TOR might add some, later, but I did mention they "lost the most," so maybe they might be faves for 5th place, right now- or co-faves.

Thus spoke MLBTR... Six teams in on Ryan Brasier. Why can't we ever be in on studs like him?

I'm not sure what "not losing last place" means. It kinda sounds like winning last place. It does seem very much like the Sox are favored to "not lose" last place. We have not replaced JT or Duvall. O'Neill for Dugo is close to a push. Grissom looks to be a plus, and some kids stepping up their game should probably happen, but Giolito did not come close to fixing our rotation, and is a big question, himself. I realize other teams lost players and have not equaled their losses with additions, but... BAL has so many really good young players, with more coming up, soon, and some are nearing their prime years. TBR never goes away. They can lose really big players and never seem to miss a beat. NYY gets Rodon back. It's like they just signed him. TOR seems to have lost the most, but I think they have money to spend and will add Snell, Monty or Imanaga plus maybe more. Maybe, someday I will flip a switch towards optimism, but that day seems far away. [/b.]

It's all part of the great sham. Try to do just enough to fool the fans into thinking you are trying to win. Another one year deal based on hopes of a bounceback. Sound familiar?

It does seem that way, despite all these statements like, "We need to trim salary first, then...[we will make you an offer.]" The Sox might be one reason the best pitchers remaining have not signed, yet. They are waiting for Jansen or Yoshi to be traded. Then, I woke up.

No, and that is likely a very rare case. I do think he'll do better, but not great like Godzilla great.

Certainly, Yoshida is not held in high regard by most Sox fans. Jansen has 1 year left on a team in rebuild mode. Maybe we can get more for him, now, than at the deadline. I agree, Brez has shown he much more bolder than Bloom, and he seems to be quickly trying to make a mark on this team. If he does trade these two, one could look at the list of top 4 trades and say, those were the guys who needed to go, or did not fit into the Brez type team. Yoshida Jansen Verdugo Urias I'm really not torn up, if all 4 go, but I'd like to see some nice returns and or replacements on the roster (and budget.)

Agreed, and I was careful not to say "firesale." I can't believe anything they say, so this talk about "freeing up budget space for a SP" could all be a further sham. It could be as simple as they have lost total faith in Yoshida (and maybe their own scouts who gushed over him, too.) I can see trading Jansen, who has one year left and is aging. It would not upset me, if we did actually use Yoshida's money to add a very good SP'er, but I'll believe it when I see it. BTV accepts: Yoshida & Jansen (+$10M cash) to LAD for Michael Grove (LH RP w 6 years of control)

MLBTR reporting the Sox have been taking calls on Yoshida and Jansen. What a dumb time to finally decide to sell- off. At almost any point in the last 3 years would have been better.

But, haven't you heard? IP and GS are most important, and Cease had more of both than ironman Gio. in the last 3 years. (IMO, the CWS will get a prospect equal to one of our top 3 or even more.)

I said that 2 posts ago.

I do think he'll do better, but I can't see him doing that great.

Do the Mariners lead the bigs in significant trades over the last few years, or what?