moonslav59

I'd be curious to know how many teams spent over $500M of "new money" in the last 3 winters of spending. The reality is, we spent more than $600M on 4 players, and I did not include guys like Kluber, Kike, Richards, Duvall, Wacha, Hill and lesser players. Sure, not many teams lost big salaries like those from Bogey, JD, Nate, Sale and others, but the perception of us not spending a lot is just wrong, except for the "new spending" lows before 2019, 2020, to some extent 2021 and now 2024. We spent large on Sale, Bogey and Nate extensions, before DD left, and the Devers extension blows the others away, but "new spending" has not really been peanuts in 2 of the last 3 winters.

I'm not sure how much the "perception" is keeping players from signing, here. We just aren't making top offers, very often. The Eflin snub looked more like a geography thing- not our perception of being too cheap. (Afterall, he signed with the low spending Rays.) The fans and media certainly have the perception, and it is based in some reality. Although 2019 was our highest payroll ever, we actually let Kimbrell and Kelly go and added nobody new. 2020 was a massive budget cut season, and 2021 did not come close to replacing what we lost. 2022 and 2023 were, more or less, in line with previous spending, but some other teams shot up in budget spending. This winter looks like an obvious punt. The perception, now is equal to the reality, in terms of new spending, which is needed after 2 last place finishes. The big question is whether this tight-assness is just temporary, or not.

It might get better. I think Monty's age is what is making ]him look like not being part of the 2025 or 2026 "opening of the window." The age was one reason I was high on Yamo. Lauer 28 & 10 mos (not a significant upgrade) Monty 31 & 2 mos (best choice, to me.) Snell 31 & 3 mos (too injury prone, to me) Bauer 33 & 1 mo. (Major PR issues) Clevinger 33 & 2 mos (might take a short deal & PR issue) I think we wait until 2025 or 2026 to spend big on a SP'er, but it may never happen.

My point was that the perception does not really match up with reality. Yes, our budget ranking has gone way down. Some of that is due to massive increased spending by a handful or teams. Some is due to this self-imposed budget limiting by JH, this winter, before 2020 and 2021. (The 2022 and 2023 spending was not all that low. It was just spent in the wrong areas and on some players that did not produce or got hurt.)

I'm as pissed as anyone about JH's frugality. The 4 are Devers, Story, Yoshida (who total over $580, by themselves.) The 4th was Giolito, who puts the number over $600M.

I hate to admit it, but I'm starting to feel some optimism creeping into my blood.

2 wins, today- for what it's worth. Giolito 2 IP, 0 H, 1 BB, 1K Bello 2IP, 0H, 1 BB, 3K Devers with an HR Jacques and Zeferjhan let up almost all the opps runs.

2 good years in a row should help him get a better offer, but this guy's history is still scary.

I'm just saying a couple posters projected a sharp increase in signing costs for the remaining FAs, after these two, and it did not really happen. Most got close to projections, some got less, and some, like Bellinger, got way less.

Reality also includes the fact that we invested over $500M in just 4 players since March 2022.

MLBTR... Right-hander Bryan Mata has been shut down due to a pulled hamstring, Alex Cora told reporters. A timetable for Mata’s return is not yet clear. The 24-year-old right-hander has not yet made his big league debut but figured to enter Spring Training with a strong chance to earn a job in the club’s bullpen this spring. Mata does not have options remaining, meaning that he must be carried on the club’s active roster or else designated for assignment and exposed to waivers, running the risk that a rival club would claim him. If Mata’s absence proves to be a lengthy one, of course, he could open the season on the 15- or 60-day injured list, thereby delaying the need for Boston to make a decision regarding his future. Yoshida revealed that he underwent surgery on his jaw shortly after the 2023 season. According to Yoshida, the issue didn’t “necessarily” impact him from a baseball perspective during the 2023 season, though he noted that the surgery alleviated discomfort that nagged him during everyday use of his jaw. Yoshida appeared in 140 games for Boston during his first MLB season last year, slashing a respectable .289/.338/.445 in the first year of his five-year, $90MM pact with the Red Sox. Yoshida figures to look to improve on his 2023 campaign this season after he slowed down a bit in the second half last year,

So, the Yanks will beat the Sox 5 more times with Snell?

I guess it's all relative. How many teams in MLB have signed 3 players to more than this in the past 3 winters? (Actually 2 years- from March 2022 to March 2024.) $313.5M/10 $140M/6 $90M/5 (not counting posting fee) This is not meant to be a sign of support for our spending levels, but compared to most teams, we are still high spenders.

So, all the hype about Ohtani and Yamo's mega deals driving up the price for those to follow was just that: hype.

Check this out... https://fb.watch/qqwgVq5dHz/

They'd be signed if a GM over-rated them. They may not be HOF, but Monty and Snell are both top 30 pitchers. That has a lot of value, these days.

Okay, so our SP'ing is ranked dead last in the ALE. SP MLB 6. NYY 13.5 7. TOR 13.4 13. TBR 12.3 16. BAL 12.2 18. BOS 11.8 RP 8. TBR 3.6 11. TOR 3.3 16. BOS 2.8 19. NYY 2.5 27. BAL 1.4 SP+RP: BOS 14.6 (4th in ALE) and BAL 13.6 (Last in ALE.) We are also ranked... (projected team fWAR) Red = best in ALE Blue = worst in ALE T 26th at C 1.5 (1. BAL 5.3, 2. TOR 4.9, 11. NYY 3.5, 21. TBR 2.4) 17th at 2B 2.6 (4. NYY 4.0, 10. TBR 3.4, 13. BAL 3.0, 19. TOR 2.5) 16th at CF 2.7 (2. NYY 5.0, 10. BAL 3.1, 13. TOR 2.9, 18. TBR 2.6) 15th at RF 2.1 (2. NYY 6.4, 6. TOR 2.9, 11. TBR 2.6, 13. BAL 2.4) 14th at SS 3.0 (5. BAL 4.3, 6. TOR 4.3, 13. NYY 3.1, 17. TBR 2.8) 11th at LF 2.5 (2. NYY 3.4, 3. TBR 3.3, 10. TOR 2.6, 15. BAL 2.3) 10th at DH 1.6 (3. NYY 2.4, 5. TOR 1.8, 6. TBR 1.7, 9. BAL 1.7) 8th at 1B 2.6 (4. TBR 3.7, 5. TOR 3.2, 15. BAL 1.8, 17. NYY 1.7) 4th at 3B 4.3 (6. BAL 4.1, 9. TBR 3.8, 12. NYY 2.8, 24. TOR 2.1) We are worst at 4 slots, including the rotation. We are best at 1 slot (3B.)

JH was also the guy who brought the team to the top of the spending rankings for many years, and top 3-5 for many years in a row. Without that (or him,) we may still have no rings for over a century, now. I'm not downplaying the mistakes and choices you listed. They were doozies.

How do I find OPS+ for a 3 year period split v L?

I think it was true in foresight, as well. Betts was clearly the beast of the group. I liked the Sale extension, so it's hard for me to flip, now, but Betts over him seems like a slam dunk, now and then. The Bogey extension was cheap. The opt-out killed us.

I see this for OF depth, assuming Rafaela starts in AAA: LF: O'Neill (Duran, Ref, Yoshida) CF: Duran (Abreu) RF: Abreu (O'Neill) So, the back-up CF would just be a shift: Abreu to CF, O'Neill to RF and Ref/Yoshida in LF.

2021-2023 v LHPs (250+ PAs) 43. Refsnyder .865 67. Dalbec .836 76. Cooper .821 Sorry, I'm only allowed to use 3 year sample sizes.

These guys are so cheap, they won't even do that. Ref and Dalbec might even have slight trade value. We could, at least get someone to take on Ref's salary. Dalbec is at min.

Stop celebrating our budget cuts!!!!

One of our weak areas is hitting LHPs, especially in the OF. Ref is one of MLBs best batters vs LHPs in the last 2, 3 or 4 years. Nobody wants him to play FT, and I doubt anyone wants him to start even one game vs a RH'd starter. He fills a need. The problem is we also have no real back-up 1Bman, and that is the sole reason Dalbec is in the conversation for the 26 slot. He also does well vs LHPs, but does not really fit the OF need, well. Ref does not fill the 1B need, well, if at all.