moonslav59

Word is the Yanks are looking at Luzardo or Garrett from MIA. I would think we have better prospects to offer. Cease has just 2 years, so I'd like him better than Burnes, but I'd still look for 3+ years. SEA might be looking to trade a Sp'er, but I'm not sure we match up. According to harmony, there is not a single player on the Sox worthy of the SEA 40 man roster. Many trades work out on BTV, but who knows what MIA, SEA, CLE or anyone else wants for a really good pitcher. I've made countless suggestions on that site for pitchers with 3+ years of control, but you never know. MIA did trade Pablo Lopez. I suggested a few for him, before he was traded.

Agreed, so maybe we need to trade for an arb guy or even a pre-arb guy with 3-5 years of control.

I get the worry about Story at SS, and who might back him up, if he gets hurt or needs to moves back to 2B, but to me, he seems like the top prospect who might bring back the best return. I do see Story at SS as more of a sure bet than Duran, Rafaela and Abrue in our future OF. That makes Anthony a keeper. Teel's trade value is not all that high, now, but having a top catching prospect is something I feel we need to hang onto. Bleis does not have the trade value, right now to count as a blue-chipper. He needs a full season to get a better feel for his true value. I really like Luzardo or Garrett from MIA, but both might not really be as good as they look to be. Luzardo has 3 years and Garrett 5 years of control. I doubt they take Duran plus Wikelman and Perales or Fitts, so it's going to take Mayer.

Kluber didn't look "horrible." I'm just tired of "not horrible" being our ceiling.

If we trade for someone with 3 or more years of control, hopefully 4-5, then it might be worth doing it now, even if the 2024 Red Sox are not meant to be seriously contending team.

Yes, of course. I'm just saying I don't see much difference in his pitching additions, so far. It looks like no Monty, Snell or Imanaga, so adding Stroman doesn't move the needle much more than Gio, for me. I'm cutting him some slack. I've made no final judgments, and won't even after opening day, but so far, it looks like more of the same in many ways. I like his decisiveness more. Trading Sale, Dugo and Urias was probably something Bloom would not do. I like The O'Neill trade and Grissom is growing on me. We have a ways to go to look better than last year's last place team.

I'm bummed that Stroman might be our best remaining chance at anything near a decent SP'er. I don't see Bauer as an option. Urias looks even worse. The leftovers are Bloom signing types: Paxton, Clevinger, Ryu, Lorenzen, Manaea, A Wood. Yes, trades are still an option, but why trade away the future to still come up short in 2024?

Of course that makes sense, but when has sense had anything to do with what we actually do? Signing Monty, Snell, Imanaga or even Stroman would be a huge step, even if we have to trade Yoshi or Jansen to clear budget space to convince JH to say yes.- I do NOT think it happens. I don't think Duran plus 2 non top 4-5 prospects gets us the type of pitcher we need. Now, if we do get one of those 4 FA pitchers, that sort of trade might get us a complimentary SP that might make us competitive. I'd be fine with Duvall in RF, O'Neill in LF and Rafaela and Abreu fighting it out for CF, although neither can really be counted on as "the man." Having 2 increases the odds one will work, but who knows? I'm fine with not trading Mayer (no way I trade Anthony or Teel, and Bleis needs a full year to gauge more,) but only because I have very little optimism we try to win in 2024. Might as well wait to make a trade like that until we are set up to win. If we want to win in 2024, I think we need to... Sign Monty, Snell or Imanaga Trade Mayer for Luzardo or Garrett types Sign Duvall or trade Duran plus others for someone who can hit and defend RF well.

Some of these pitchers look okay to decent and might have some upside, but I'm really not seeing a big difference from... (in foresight not hindsight) Jansen Martin Kluber Wyatt Mills Bleier (for Barnes) Wacha Hill Strahm Diekman Denlinger

He should be fine in Yankee Stadium's short RF, although his metrics might suffer from that. Not counting salary, BTV has Dugo (14) and O'Neill (11) pretty close.

O'Neill might be a plus on O and would be on D, if he played in LF. The problem is, just about all our OF'ers but Rafeala look best in LF or DH (Yoshida, Refsnyder, Duran). Abreu might be plus on O and plus on D, but we don't know. Rafaela in big plus on D and largely unknown on 0. Some might project poor or inconsistent O. Duran might end up okay on D, some year, but likely only in LF. His offense is a coin toss. Yoshida sucks on D, even LF at Fenway. His O may improve, but who knows? Ref sucks on D and can only hit LHPs. We need OF'ers who can both hit and play D. We might have 3 (O'Neill, Abreu & Rafaela,) but that could easily be wishful thinking- not reality.

BTV bases value on production estimate value - contract value: 23.8 Soto (1 yr left) 4.8 Verdugo (1 yr left) 2.9 Judge (due to 8 years of massive contract) 34.0 Duran (5 yrs of pre-arb and arb) 12.3 Rafaela (6 yrs) 7.8 Abreu (6 yrs) 5.7 O'Neill (1 yr) 3.3 Yoshida (4 yrs) seems like a gift 1.0 Refsynder (2 yrs) Prospects: 41.8 Anthony 21.5 Bleis This is not in anyway saying our OF is better than theirs. BTV values/years: NYY 323/8 Judge (40.4 per season) 57/1 Soto 14/1 Dugo Total: 111 for 2024 BOS 60/5 Duran (12 per season) 11/1 O'Neill (11 per season) 18/6 Rafaela (3 per season) 25/6 W Abreu (4 per season) Total of best 3 OF'ers for 2024: 30 Way short of the overall Yankees level.

Of course, but the post your replied to was talking only about defensive improvements, On offense, that OF is depending on way too much hope. O'Neill had an excellent 2021. (.912 OPS) His career numbers per 650 PAs: .248 29 81 (.776 OPS) The problem: 2022-2023 combined: Just 626 PAs .229 40 79 (.707 OPS) Duran (not included in best defensive OF alignment) 2021-2022: (335 PAs) .219 5 27 (.622) 2023: (362 PAs) .295 8 40 (.828) 24 SBs and 36 2B+3B Who will show up in 2024? Refsnyder: Role player/platoon Out of 200 batters with 200+ PAs vs LHPs since 2022, Ref places 22nd in OPS at .889. Rafaela: Unknown, Considered to have major holes in his swing, and barely walks. .666 OPS in just 89 MLB PAs .988 OPS in AAA (199 PAs) .800 OPS in AA (579 PAs) with 44 SBs Abreu: Unknown, but showed better plate discipline in minors. .863 OPS in small 85 PA sample size .930 OPS in AAA (363 PAs) .834 OPS in AA (579 PAs) w 31 SBs Yoshida to mostly DH? Who knows? Offense looked good, until mid August and was still at .800 on SEP 12th. Stamina questions. Will DH'ing more help?

Agreed. The offensive output is almost all speculative, for the Sox. O'Neill is the closest we have to a know commodity. Duran? 2023 or 2021-2022? Yoshida? DH or LF? Improved or more of the same? Rafaela? May start in AAA, be a D first CF'er or do okay to decent batting? Abreu? May start in AAA or be an unknown in MLB? Refsnyder? Looks like a platoon only OF'er with poor defensive skills.

On D?

Not much has changed under Brez, so far, except Giolito could stay for 2 years, if he sucks. Brez pitching additions: Giolito FA Isaiah Campbell Trade Richard Fitts Trade Justin Slaten Rule 5 Greg Weissert Trade Cooper Criswell FA Max Castillo Waivers Nicholas Judice Trade Jorge Benitez & Helcris Olivarez MiLFAs (I probably missed one or two)

Even with Duran in LF, our D should be better than 2023: Assuming health... C better or even 1B likely better 2B better SS better 3B: same LF: better (Duran>Yoshida) CF: better (Rafaela/Abreu>Duvall/Duran) RF: hard to know (Abreu/O'Neill > Dugo)

This makes trading Duran a good idea. I see Teoscar signed with the Dodgers for $15M, so that is one less LF/DH type off the boards. (Please, say no to Soler.)

It is interesting to look at this list of SP'ers since 2003, not that this is an indicator of what can or should be done, going forward: IP as SP for Sox 2698 Wakefield FA 1517 Lester HG (Home Grown) 1379 Pedro Trade 1240 Beckett Trade 1141 Buchholtz HG 964 Porcello Trade 848 ERod Trade 702 Lackey FA 670 Sale Trade 670 D Lowe Trade 667 Dice K IFA 651 Schilling Trade 579 Price Trade 445 Eovaldi Trade 430> Pivetta Trade 382 Doubront MiLFA 376 Arroyo Waivers 292 Pomeranz Trade 263 Wright Trade 256 Clement FA 231 Wells FA 218 Kelly Trade 209> Bello HG 198> Houck HG 194 Miley Trade 189 Peavy Trade 171 Fossum HG 171> Crawford HG 169 Dempster FA 162 M Perez FA 153 R Hill FA 132 Penny FA 127 Wacha FA 115 B Johnson HG 110 Richards FA 100 R de la Rosa Trade Notables under 100 96 Paxton FA 91> Whitlock HG 67> Wink HG Now, by fWAR (pitchers with Sox after 2002, but stats from 1995, if they were here before JH) 52 Pedro Trade 28 Lester HG 26 Wake FA 21 Beckett Trade 21 C Sale Trade 15 Schilling Trade 15 ERod Trade 14 Buchholz HG 13 Porcello Trade 10 D Lowe Trade 10 D Price FA 8.7 Lackey FA 8.5 Eovaldi Trade 7.8 Dice-K IFA 5.7 B Arroyo Waivers 5.0 Pivetta Trade 3.9 Houck HG 3.5 Doubront MiLFA 3.1 Pomeranz Trade 3.0 Wells FA 3.0 Hill FA 2.9 Fossum HG 2.8 Clement FA 2.8 Bello HG 2.7 Miley Trade 2.6 Wright Trade 2.5 Crawford HG Notables under 2.0 1.5 Wacha FA 1.4 Penny FA 1.3 Whitlock 1.1 Peavy 1.1 J Kelly 1.1 M Perez 1.0 Paxton

The sky fell, already.

Who are you referring to?

That very well could be true, but no leak of an offer made makes me (and Mazz) think we were not near what it would take. Maybe $350M doesn't do it. $350 would likely get us Teoscar, Gray and Monty, though. $75M Gray $200M Monty $75M Teoscar Of course, the AAV would be out of our range for 3 years.

The NESN viewer share has dropped from a high of 12 in 2007 to a 3.

A nice mix of how they acquired all 7. Lopez was acquired in a trade for David Phelps. 3 by trade 2 by draft 2 by IFA

Yanks are looking into a trade for Beiber or Luzardo. How does Miami do it, with these SP'ers? They traded Pablo Lopez and still have... Alcantara Eury Perez Luzardo Garrett Rogers E Cabrera We need to try and get the guys running the Miami farm system machine.