moonslav59

A nice mix of how they acquired all 7. Lopez was acquired in a trade for David Phelps. 3 by trade 2 by draft 2 by IFA

Yanks are looking into a trade for Beiber or Luzardo. How does Miami do it, with these SP'ers? They traded Pablo Lopez and still have... Alcantara Eury Perez Luzardo Garrett Rogers E Cabrera We need to try and get the guys running the Miami farm system machine.

Some perspective: JH could sign 6 Yamo's at $333M each and still pocket $1.25B on a $750M investment. One Yamo at $350 should not have been a pipedream. Gray and Monty, either.

To me, our 8-9-10-11 RP'ers is one of the few strengths we have. But they are not so good that they could be traded for something all that great. Another strong area is the 1-7 RP'ers, assuming we add a solid innings eater ace or 2 innings eaters SP'ers.

You can win by trading for aces, but the need to supplement through free agency will always be a need, as well. Only TBR has shown they can keep winning without one of both. We have lived off trading for aces, but only when we had another one, too. Now, we have none, so I agree, one trade for an ace is not enough. If we traded for one and maybe signed Monty, we might have a shot. That ain't happening, from where I sit.

Here is another Mazz video: (The team was bought for $750M in 2001-2002, including the park and cable network. It's worth over $4.5B, now. They could have signed Yamamoto.)

It's hard to keep track of the Seattle roster. It's always a revolving door. Your team does look good, on paper.

I do think we are a ways away from being a top competitor, but I'm not so sure we are that far from being a solid WC competitor. Our defense was horrendous, last year, but I do see some hope it will get closer to average than we could ever hope last year's team could be. C: I think Wong & McGuire should improve. Many catchers don't mature until their 30's. 1B: Casas did better at the end of 2023. He's young and seems to study the game hard. 2B: Grissom played mostly SS, and wasn't very good at it, but our 2B position was near last in MLB in 2023. I'm hopeful we can get to the norm.' SS: Stroy's heath is everything, here. Reyes of DHam are not good on D at SS. 3B: Devers has shown flashes of being okay to good, but I'm not expecting improvement. We will likely be bad, here, again. LF: Yoshida playing more at DH should help, greatly. Keeping Duran in LF as much as possible will also help CF. CF: I'm hopeful that Rafaela and or Abreu can start 140+ games in CF. Big plus. RF: O'Neill might be slightly worse than Dugo, but Abreu should do better than last year's RF depth. Overall, I see us moving from 29th or 30th to about 15-20th.

Okay, "Great" was hyperbole, and I'm sure everyone's pen would be better or much better, if so many pen arms weren't forced into starting. I really think our pen was very good last year, and being 4th in IP did not help the numbers make a very good case for greatness. We ended up using 28 pitchers in relief, and one was not Houck (21 GS and no RP games.) Hopefully, we can and will reduce that amount in 2024, but a lot will depend on who and how many are forced to start. I'm not hopeful we add two more solid pitchers, but even adding one innings eater would, IMO, make our pen very good to great. In 2023, we had 9 pitchers with under 10 IP: Kelly, Weiss, Bearclaw, Sherriff, Littell, Scott, Lamet, Faria and Reyes- and this does not count "opener games." They totalled 44 IP, mostly with bad ERAs. The 15-19th in IP pen arms were: Ort 6.27 in 19 IP Garza 6.23 in 17 Kluber 9.45 in 13 Robertson 6.55 in 11 Joely 6.55 in 11 That's another 70+ IP of horrible numbers. Let's say we add 1 solid SP'er who should start 30+ games and give us 170+ IP. For argument's sake, say we stick with Houck, who seems to do well vs the first 18 batters, and with the amount of long RP'ers we will have, we should be able to absorb his early yanks. Bello 30+ GS 160+ IP __added__ 30+ GS 160+ IP Giolito 30+ GS 170+ IP Pivetta 30+ GS 160+ IP Houck 30+ GS 140+ GS This pushes Crawford to the pen, and leaves us with this: Jansen (maybe a top 10 closer) Martin (maybe the best set up in MLB) Crawford (a bit of a question mark but some huge upside) Winckowski (can he repeat 2023?) Whitlock (hopefully is healthy and back to 2021-2022 form) Schreiber (needs to stay healthy) Bernardino (looked really good, last year) Slaten or Mata (whoever wins ST'ing) The minor league depth looks way better than 2023: (Bernardino, if Slaten & Mata make the 26) Campbell Criswell Murphy Fitts Kelly Weissert Guerrero That looks pretty damn good to me. It is not our weak area.

To me, there seems to be 3-4 higher level posters who seem more optimistic than the rest of us, and I don't see any of them defending JH & Co., especially on budget issues. notin has spoken of the high risk of spending on big FA pitchers, and what he said is 100% true, but he's not defending JH on spending. He wanted him to sign Gray. That hardly looks like an apologist.

So, you are the Sox PR employee! Classic!

This is relying heavily on players already on the roster to improve and or stay healthy. I happen to agree, we should expect improvement from several returning players, especially fi we can put them in positions where they can be more successful. Story is the big question. Whitlock and Houck had career worst seasons in 2023, but both have electric stuff, when healthy and used correctly. While Casas, Duran and Wong could all take a step back in '24, I'm thinking expecting the 3, combined, to improve seems logical. Crawford and Wink took big steps forward in '23. Can we expect the same? Is it illogical to expect regression? Bello struggled to end the season. I'm thinking he should improve. Martin and Jansen can maybe be expected to do the same or slightly worse. Pivetta, Schreiber, Bernardino, Refsnyder, Reyes, EValdez and others are too hard to project, as are Abreu, Rafaela and other youngsters. Looking at the roster turnover, only, I can't say we look better. We might be, but I can't say, "yes." O'Neill (more from Abreu, Rafaela & Duran) for Dugo & Duvall (Maybe) Giolito for Paxton, Sale & Kluber (Maybe/possibly Yes) Grissom for Arroyo & Co. (Yes) ______ for Turner (No) Campbell, Fitts, Weissert & others for Bleier, Brasier, Ort, Llovera & Co. (Yes)

I disagree on the depth thing. Only a back-up 1Bman seems like an issue. I don't agree with all of soxprospects 2024 roster projections, and their projected 2 SP'ers till to be added is highly questionable, but this is our "depth:" on 26: McGuire, Reyes, Refsnyder, EValdez Minors on the 40: (not on 40) SP: Wink, Max Castillo, Walter, Wikelman (AA), Pereales (A+) (Fitts & Gambrell) RP: Campbell, Criswell, Murphy, Weissert, Z Kelly (Guerrero, Hagenman, Benitez, Olivares) (Scott, Teel)) 1B: Dalbec (2B: Yorke) SS: DHam (Mayer) CF: Rafaela (Anthony) RF: Abreu (Rosier) (DH: Hickey)

I do think depth is great, but not at the expense of top quality. While I admit, no team will take 2-3 good pitchers for one better one, unless he's a salary dump or injury risk, I'd like to see us try.

Who are you talking about? Don't be shy: name names.

Trying to find a way to be optimistic, despite the lack of top quality players on the roster, I do think we look to have a pretty decent foundation or supporting cast to the few top players we have and maybe some we acquire or promote from the minors over the next 1-3 years. Top players 10 yrs Devers 5 yrs Casas 5 yrs Bello Decent players with a chance to be a top contributor 4 yrs Story 1 yr Martin 1 yr Jansen Chance at being a significant plus: 5+ yrs Grissom 5 yrs Winckowski, Duran, Wong 4 yrs Houck, Crawford, Yoshida 3 yrs Whitlock 1-2 yrs Giolito 1 yr Pivetta, O'Neill Maybe decent role players 4 yrs Reyes 3 yrs Schreiber 2 yrs McGuire, Refsnyder Questionable 1 yr Criswell 5+ years of control/ pre-ARB A- Anthony, Mayer, Teel B- Bleis, Abreu, Rafaela, Cespedes C- Slaten, Bernardino, Campbell, Yorke, Fitts, Murphy, EValdez, Zanetello Meidroth, Castro, Jo. Garcia, Hickey, Romero, Monegro, A Anderson, Hoppe D- Mata, Z Kelly, M Castillo, Wikelman, Perales, Walter, DHam, Weissert Jordan, Paulino, Dobbins, E R-C, Guerrero, Alcantara, Troye, Arias F- B Dalbec, Jacques, Weiss In theory, I'd look to make some 2 or 3 for 1 trades that improves on quality over quantity, add some strategic FAs of high quality, and maybe make a trade for two for top players with 3+ years of team control.

You said it in far less words than I.

We certainly have a need for high quality players. In 2020, the 40 man roster and farm were so depleted, it made sense to try and incrementally build up with a quantity of marginal quality players, until we reached a foundation, where we could fill in a few holes with free agent signings or trades. Since the Nate trade in the summer of 2018, we have made precious few trades designed to make us better, right away. Even the ones that were, also involved a prospect thrown in, such as Ottavino with German, Pivetta with Seabold, JBJ w DHam and Binelas. Our FA signings have been the model for quantity over quality. Only Story and Yoshida were meant to be major impactful, and neither has been, so far. The highest need area on the Sox has been glaringly obvious for every season since 2019: Starting Pitchers. Our SP additions tell the whole half-ass story: 2020> Perez (34 GS- 6th ranked in this time period) Pivetta (81 GS leads the Sox since 2020: 20 more than Nate) Richards (22- 11th ranked) Perez II Wacha (23- 10th ranked) Hill (26- 9th ranked) Paxton (19- 12th ranked) Kluber (9- 15th ranked) Others: 61 Nate (2nd) bolted as FA 41 Houck (3rd) 39 Bello (4th- in just 2 seasons) 36 Crawford (5th) 31 ERod (31) bolted as FA 19 Whitlock (13th) 15 Winckowski (14th) 7 Mazza, 6 Seabold, 5 Weber, 4 Brewer Best ERA- from 2020-2023 (as SP only): 81 Wacha - bolted as FA 85 Nate -bolted as FA 87 Sale -traded away 93 Houck - may be in pen 99 Paxton - FA, now 99 Bello - still in rotation 101 Perez- gone 103 Pivetta (SP/RP?) 104 Hill- gone 104 ERod- gone 109 Whitlock- (SP/RP?) 114 Richards- gone 116 Crawford- (SP/RP?) 138 Wink (SP/RP?)

The Sox optimist might say, "They are waiting for the Sox to 'clear up salary space,' before signing with us. The Sox pessimist might say, "They are holding out for absurd amounts of money way out of our price range."

There doesn't seem to be any coherent or steady plan. That being said, since dumping Kimbrel & Kelly after 2028, our pen is now very strong. I'd say top 5, if we can add a SP'er or two and slide Houck, Crawford or Pivetta to the pen. It's also pretty deep down into AAA and AA. We have 2 massive holes in the top of the rotation. Bello is a fine #3. Giolito is a very fine #4. Between Pivetta, Crawford and Houck, our #5 looks very good, when compared to 25+ other teams. We have a massive problem with defense, although it should be better, if Story can stay healthy and Grissom plays steady but average D at 2b. If we can avoid Duran in CF, our OF could be better with Yoshida at DH, most games and maybe Rafaela and or Abreu play a lot. Catcher might improve as Wong matures. 1B might improve, as Casas sis look better second half of '23. 3B will likely be the same: bad. If we could add good 2 SP'ers or one really good one, and somehow improve the D further (not Teoscar,) that might be enough to get us to a WC slot, and further set us up for 2025-2026, when 2-3 good prospects might make an impact.

I know my method of ranking the top 150 SP'ers in MLB (30 teams x 5 SP'er) and designating them as #1s (1-30), #2s (31-60) and so on is flawed, but it is no surprise that the Sox don't have any 1s or 2's who were with us all 3 seasons. It is noteworthy, that we have to set the IP level at 200 for 3 seasons (66 per season) to get a sample size of 150. Some pitchers have less IP, because they just came up, other were injured. When people say no good SP'ing is or was available, I scratch my head. Like my system or not, these are some notable pitchers by ranking in fWAR since 2021 (some have injury, age or other concerns): 3. Burnes 8. Cease 11. Castillo 12. Ohtani (won't pitch in 2024) 15. F Valdez 16. Monty (in this methodology, he's a solid #1) 17. Gray (signed for a very reasonable contract) 18. Snell (only Ohtani has a higher WAR and less IP) 19. Woodruff (injury) 22. Kershaw (will miss part of '24) 23. Urias (may end up in jail) 24. Beiber (injury?) 27. Nate (with Sox from '21 to '22) #2s 33. Gilbert 34. Stroman 41. ERod 46. Giolito 52. M Keller 54. Mahle 56. Luzardo 57. Montas (despite missing '23) 59. Glasnow 60. J Quintana #3s 61. Wacha 62. L Garcia 63. Manoah 64. C Javier 67. R Ray 69. T Rogers 75. M Perez 77. Pivetta 78. Garrett 84. Manaea 85. Civale 87. Houser 89. Greinke 90. Desclafini Some of these guys are not currently "available," but were recently traded or signed.

We had and have a great bull pen. We need more guys who can go 5 IP with 1-2 runs allowed- maybe 3 from time to time.

If we end up trading Yoshida, Teoscar makes more sense. I see O'Neill in RF, for what that is worth. I want to avoid us using Duran in CF, but I'm thinking it will happen more than I like. Teoscar kinda forces that to happen.

You need to take a hard look at your positions, lately.

Damn straight!