Maxbialystock

Meaning what? Somebody died? Girardi should get fired? Hitting don't mean jack? There's a bunch of folks on talksox who think the Yankees can be tough especially since the rotation is looking pretty good (to go with the bullpen).

And thank goodness for that!

In 2004, 2007, and 2013 the Sox had really good offenses and led the league (or near it) in runs scored, OPS, etc. Plenty of dingers too. Indeed, in all three years the Sox led or were 2d in MLB in net runs scored vs. runs scored against-- In 2004 the Sox net was +180 and the Cardinals were the only ones better with + 187. Does anyone remember who we played in the WS? In 2007 The Sox led MLB with + 210, and the next three were the Yankees at +191, the Guardians at +115, and the Rockies at +110. Does anyone remember we played in the ALCS and WS that year? In 2013--you must know where this is headed--the Sox led with +197, next were the Cardinals with +187, and next were the Tigers with +172. We played the Tigers in the ALCS and the Cardinals in the WS. So, wild and crazy though this might sound, just maybe a team's net--runs scored minus runs against--is a decent barometer for postseason success. This year the Guardians lead the MLB pack with +227 (a huge differential), then come the Yankees at +175 and the Dodgers at +172, the Astros at +151, the Nationals at +144, the Diamondbacks at +143, and, finally, the Sox at +113. As of today, September 20, the Guardians have 94 wins, the Yankees 84, the Dodgers 96, the Astros 92, the Nationals 91, the Diamondbacks 87, and the Sox 87. Except for the Yankees, that's a pretty high correlation between net runs scored and wins. And, based on those other--granted, carefully selected--postseason years of 2004, 2007, and 2017, net runs scored also seems to be a decent predictor for postseason success. I find that astonishing given that this year, like most years, the winning percentages for the best team, the Dodgers is 64% and the two "worst" teams of that select group at the top, the Sox and Diamondbacks, is 58%. Both round off to winning 6 of 10 games. Indeed, the Giants, with the worst won-lost record in MLB right now, still win 4 of 10 games. Thus, if the carefully selected past is prologue, it would seem the Sox will do well just to get to the ALCS, let alone win it--whoever they play in the ALDS.

Hausman wasn't that great, but had our guys mesmerized.

Great start by Pom's, great bullpen, horrible hitting. Except for Devers, good D.

I'm not ready to focus on the full 25 or 26 man roster at this point. Besides, the lineup and most the bullpen are pretty much set with variations based mostly on whose healthy enough and who isn't. If Nunez and Pedey are well, the both probably start. And so. All those other guys are on the margins. To me the key topic is the rotation, and I agree with MVP78 there are some tough calls. I still like Fister, but now think he has to have two good starts to get back into the top 4. Sale is still #1. Pom is probably #2 at this point. My tiebreaker on Porcello vs. ERod for #3 is probably who are we playing. Some teams hit righties better than lefties and vice versa. If they kill lefties, Porcello is my #3. If they kill lefties,I might also move Fister up, but for that he has to have at least one good start before the postseason. Then there's the Price thing. He's committed to the bullpen, but what is to prevent Farrell from giving him 3 or 4 innings--situation-dependent of course--his next time out? If nothing else, he could be our best long reliever, the one guy who can save the bullpen if Farrell has to pull a starter really early.

Meh. I hope you realize the Sox only need to go 7-5 in the next 12 games to finish with 93 wins, same as last year. And let's not forget that the guy we lost was one David Ortiz, the crucial link to the great offenses of 2004, 2007, and 2013. Ortiz helped win two WS for Francona--remember him?--and another for Farrell. Without him, the hitting has unquestionably suffered, and that is most noticeable in the team's slugging percentage and number of dingers. Last year we were #1 in MLB in slugging and #9 in dingers, this year #26 in slugging and #27 in dingers, but we are still 10th in scoring. Are you saying the slugging and dingers dropped off the table because Farrell makes dumb decisions and doesn't stress fundamentals? That's a hard sell. I think that 10th in scoring, still in the top 1/3 in MLB, suggests that crazy, boneheaded baserunning might be helping more than hurting and that Farrell has adjusted pretty well to the precipitous drop in hitting with power. I would love to claim credit for Farrell for the overall improvement in defense--pitching plus fielding--because so far, with 12 games to go, the Sox have given up just 616 runs, over 100 below last year's 729. But I give most of the credit to DD for getting Sale and earlier Pom and Porcello and this year Fister. Plus Kimbrel, Reed, et al. The pitching is better for the very simple reason that the pitchers are better (Porcello being the exception of course). You are probably more of an aficionado of baseball than I, which explains why you hate weak fundamentals and I, appallingly, tolerate them--if such they are. I won't at all disagree that sometimes Farrell's decisions don't work out. I have raged against them myself. But overall I think there is a pretty good rationale for all of them and admit he has better information and more experience than I.

Tough crowd. In 2004, 2007, and 2013 the Sox had really good offenses and led the league (or near it) in runs scored, OPS, etc. Plenty of dingers too. Indeed, in all three years the Sox led MLB in net runs scored vs. runs scored against-- In 2004 the Sox net was +180 and the Cardinals were the only ones better with + 187. Does anyone remember who we played in the WS? In 2007 The Sox led MLB with + 210, and the next three were the Yankees at +191, the Guardians at +115, and the Rockies at +110. Does anyone remember we played in the ALCS and WS that year? In 2013--you must know where this is headed--the Sox led with +197, next were the Cardinals with +187, and next were the Tigers with +172. So, wild and crazy though this might sound, just maybe a team's net--runs scored minus runs against--is a decent barometer for postseason success. This year the Guardians lead the MLB pack with +227 (a huge differential), then come the Yankees at +175 and the Dogers at +172, the Astros at +151, the Nationals at +144, the Diamondbacks at +143, and, finally, the Sox at +113. And people want to dump Farrell because he failed to take this splendid hitting and pitching team all the way in 2017? Our fundamentalists are no doubt wanting to say, "hold it. You forgot all those stupid boneheaded decisions by Farrell and his lassitude in preventing weak fundamentals on the basepaths and in the field. OSurely those are worth something because we all know those other mangers never make mistakes and their teams all play good, fundamental baseball all the freaking time. Surely that's worth at least 100 runs per season, which means the Sox really should be at +213. That's the difference between a Francona at the helm and a Farrell."

Me too, bigtime. They are probably the best team in MLB right now. And why are the Yankees now the beast from the east? The Sox have played them 14 times since the ASG and have split, 7-7. Yes, Sabathia, Tanaka, and Severino outpitched our guys (Pom, Sale, and Porcello) 2 1/2 weeks ago, but I think our team is better now and despite limited availability of both Nunez and Pedroia. Betts, Beni, and Bogie are all hitting better. Of course, it could all boil down to the rotations--as was exactly the case last year against Cleveland in the ALDS. I freely admit I was impressed with the Yankees "big 3" 2 1/2 weeks ago, but that was just one game apiece. I think Sale is still a great starter with a good array of pitches, especially when he uses the changeup and keeps the ball low. Pom has been steady if not great. Porcello could still get back to where he was a year ago--see 7.1 innings and 0 runs in his last start. ERod too seems to be more consistent even though, like Pom, he throws a lot of pitches per inning. In his last 3 starts he averaged six innings and gave up 2, 1, and 2 earned runs--and had 24 K's vs 6 BB's. Fister at this point looks like #5, but he could get back to where he was before his last 2 starts. And backing up all five Price is looking pretty good--I know, just two innings in relief, but good ones nevertheless. In the playoffs, barring an early disaster which is what happened last year to both Price and Porcello, Farrell again has a pretty good bullpen to call on-- and early if need be. Also, as you point out, right now the Sox are the experienced team, not the Yankees, in postseason play. In 2012 the Yankees went to the ALCS and lost 4 straight to the Tigers. I think the only regular left from that team is Gardner. Since 2012 the Yankees have played in one, exactly one postseason game, which they lost in 2015. I checked the box score and think the only two guys still in the lineup are Gardner and Gregorious. We still have guys--Pedey and Bogaerts anyway-- left from 2013 and almost all from last year's ALDS.

Punchless and little by and large applies to the four killer bees (Betts, Bogie, Beni, and JBJ) even though Bogie is 6'1". All are having down years, but they are still I think the core of this team. One of them--mostly Betts--leads the Sox in every offensive category you can think of--runs, rbi's, total bases, OBP, SLG, OPS, SB's, dingers, doubles, triple, hits, walks, you name it. In many of those categories 3 of those 4 are among the top four on the team. I think that's why Bogie, Beni, and Betts are pretty firmly entrenched in the top 4 in the batting order in September--because overall they have been the most reliable offensive players on this team. JBJ is stuck in 9th, but that hasn't kept him from doing some damage. Those four killer B's are ages (meaning their birthdays are this year) 23, 25, 25, and 27 which have already led many on talksox to discuss who should be a keeper and who not. For my money, they all are. But the rejoinder to that is: "yeah, but you don't have any money,and these guys could be expensive to keep in this era of astronomical MLB salaries." Anyway, those four have been pretty darn useful in this stretch run, especially now that Nunez is out and Pedey is not quite Pedey (lately). Moreland's doing OK, season to date, but HanRam--apparently because of a nagging injury--is not. Devers bat has helped for sure, but not his glove or arm (DWAR -.2). Yes, pitching is still our long suit. Last night Fister bombed, but the bullpen picked up the pieces beautifully. As good as it is, the pitching will always need the lineup to score some runs in order to actually win the game--see some of Sale's starts early this season.

This is the ironic Kimmi, right?

Just woke up to see the fantastic 11th in replay. Early in the game I said the Sox were basically dead, then saw the great rally and then the dinger by Bogie. Killer B's have been mainstays this season even in down years by all three. Plus JBJ of course. What a bullpen! After Fister gave up 5 in 2 innings, they held the Oriole's to 2 ER's in 9 innings. Sweet!

What, pray tell, has been a cakewalk this season or even this month?

Did not need that error by Devers.

My mistake. Thanks.

That's one--and what Bogie is so good at. That's two --great K by Abad.

Still need 12 outs, a lot.

Talk about bats coming alive. Not that Bundy didn't deserve it, mind you. Just a bunch of food hits and Bogie getting that very tough walk.

Gotta admit, showalter is so much smarter. Thank you, thank you, showalter for dousing the fire with gasoline.

Jones has a very good arm.one out.

Beni singles off the reliever.

I'm smiling.

This is me eating those words back on page whatever. Wow! Pedey out, and Holt now two hits in his place. 6-4 with two on and one out and Beni up and Betts on deck.

Another great at bat, by Bogie!

Great at bat by JBJ. Run in and Devers, running into still another out, sitting on 3b. Make me eat those words, guys. Get it close.