Maxbialystock

Me, I was astounded when the Guardians took 3 straight, but you can never convince me momentum had anything whatsoever to do with that. Price then Porcello, our two best starters, were simply outmatched by the Guardians first two starters. Their problem wasn't momentum, it was postseason ineptitude of the first order. Polar opposite of, say, Lester and Lackey in 2013 or the bloody sock guy in 2004 or Beckett in 2007. Buccholz went 4 giving up 2 in the "stay alive" final game, but then Pom gave up 2 more. We lost because our pitching stunk, simple as that. As for now, I agree the hot streak doesn't necessarily carry over, but good pitching almost certainly will. Indeed, the Guardians overall defense, including pitching, is the dominant stat in the AL this season. Between pitching and defense, the Guardians have given up a total of 515 runs. The next best AL team (us) has given up 588 runs. That's .5 runs per game difference. The Astros have given up 644. Defense and pitching tend to hold up a whole lot better than hitting. Cleveland doesn't need momentum to beat the socks off anyone in the ALDS or ALCS. The Dodgers, if anyone is interested, have given up 513 runs this season. So my money is on those two teams getting to the WS.

I am looking right now at the slugging percentages for the top 8 Sox this year in total bases and at bats. Bogaerts is indeed dead last, but his .391 ain't that far below the top, Betts, at .435. Last year Betts slugging percentage was .534 and Ortiz's was .620 and HanRam's was .505. I say again, we don't have any sluggers this year, not when our very best is just .044 better than our worst. I sure can't buy that our run scoring and overall OPS's got worse because of Bogaerts. On the other hand, there was the 16-4 run in August when it sure looked like two guys, Nunez and Devers, were making a difference. We lost Ortiz, simple as that, and evidence for that being the core of our scoring problems is overwhelming. But Bogaerts batting 3d? Heck, Kimmi claims it's like the 5th most important slot behind 1st, 2d, 4th, and 5th--according to a book she read I think.

Ahem. I believe you are the one who has documented that our top 8 regulars this year are not only worse (except for Vazquez) than last year but somehow are all gravitating toward a mean OPS of about .750. Right now our top 8 in at bats and total bases are Betts, Bogaerts, Beni, Moreland, HanRam, Vazquez, Pedroia, and JBJ. Of those 8, the highest is .791 and the lowest is .722. That's a difference but not an overwhelming one. Bogaerts OPS in April was .731, in May .949, June .763. On this team, not all that shabby for #3 hitter. As for power, we have no power hitters this year. We are dead last in the AL in dingers and 28th in MLB. Ortiz was a power hitter, but nobody on this team is this year. Given the distinct absence of power which no doubt has affected the run-producing middle of our batting order, my guess is that putting some speed in there wasn't all bad. More to the point, given all those guys gathered around that mean, I really don't care about those lineups. Last year HanRam had a great year, now clearly because Ortiz was in the lineup, and drove in 111 runs. Good. Solid. But batting leadoff the entire season Betts drove in 113 and still scored the most runs, 122, on the team. Oh, and they scored 100 more runs than anyone else in the AL.

Doesn't count. Only boneheaded plays count when talking about aggressive baserunning.

Frank Robinson did that with the Orioles the year after he came from Cincy. One reason why he later became a manager.

Completely true and me definitely included. Plus I agree the bullpen and the lineup were the real culprits. I'm being hard on Porcello only because I honestly did not see the starter we will need down the road. And you can certainly feel free to disagree with that.

Fair enough. Not however, a quality start because he only went 5. Indeed the 4th and 5th innings were both scary because Porcello had started throw lots of fat pitches. We are thrilled because he didn't absolutely blow the game up. In my opinion--just that--he has not turned a corner. I freely grant however that the bullpen and lineup were both worse. The box score says they lost it, and the box is right.

An interesting contrast is that the Rays brought in a lefty reliever with 2 on and no one out. No sweat: two grounds, including a GIDP, inning over. Scott gets the same number of outs as dingers--1 each.

Bogaers, Betts, Moreland, and Devers all hitless after 8 innings. Farrell rarely has 6 lefty bats, but today he did. Not much help against Cobb, who I thought pitched very well.

Bad as Porcello was, he only gave up 2 in 5 innings and handed over 2-1 game, which Workman and Scott quickly made 4-1 with 2 dingers. That means that for the last 3 innings of the game, getting 1 run to tie won't help. Big edge and help to the Bays bullpen which is pretty good anyway. Not happy with the lineup, obviously, but they did their part in the last 4 wins.

Good at bat by Mookie. Yes, he should have nailed that very fat fastball, but he still go the BB and made Cobb throw a lot of pitches.

Sox have 3 singles in this game because Cobb is pitching great--lots of pitches down in the zone but also in or near the strike zone. He's got several good breaking pitches.

Was Travis running full bore on that grounder?

He won the CY last year and he's being paid $20M this year. Almost every inning--except for the lucky ones--he pitches must be torture for Farrell No one would use him were it not for those bucks and last season. All other starters know how to win games and what it takes, but not Porcello. He likes his fastball and he generally likes to throw pitches up.

He just threw nine straight fastballs to morrison to load the bases on a walk. He is not a pitcher. He is a thrower.

Exactly. He has been lucky so far. He has done what he can to give up a three run dinger, but the Rays wouldn't cooperate.

Finally the fat pitches got Porcello. He absolutely, positively gives in to batters and will always throw a fastball when he is trouble. Always. Fastballs aren't all bad, but are dangerous when the are fat and expected.

Semi-miraculous 4th for Porcello because he threw a whole bunch of fat pitches, but only one, the leadoff double, was hit hard. Longoria swung at a first pitch slider in the heart of the strike zone and popped u.

Love the baserunning talk. Me, I like it aggressive because it's fun to watch. I love to emphasize the importance of hitting and pitching because they are the meat and potatoes of winning games. But to a discriminating palate the menu needs to do better than meat and potatoes especially when hitting and pitching lead to all those interminable kabuki dances between any real action. A pitching duel can be excellent baseball and sometimes I can get really wrapped up in one. But lots of action and baserunning are usually better food for the eyes. Consequently, I am more tolerant when the chef (Farrell) doesn't quite hit the mark or when a sous-chef like Beni botches a side dish.

Exactly--in fact, that's the worst part of those sliders.

Agree it's too early to be sure about his defense. But his offense, despite the very, very small sample, was predicted based on what he did in the minors. Moreover, he will be 21 in October, and I'll bet his numbers so far are the best of any other Sox in at least 20 years at the same age. They're definitely better than Betts's at the same age and better than Beni last year when he was a year older than Devers is now. They're better than Yaz's first year when he was a year older (but was playing a full season). Ted Williams was a lot better at the same age, also his first year, and he too played a full season. But, heck, he was one of the greatest hitters of all time. Machado was actually a year younger when he had his first intro to MLB, and his numbers in 51 games were appreciably lower than Devers. Ditto the next year, his first full year. I completely agree it is wrong to project greatness for a 20 year old (until Oct) with just 40 games. But, if we are going to get silly over one guy, he's the right guy to do it over.

Nicely said. HanRam is exactly that, which tells me that's why he gets so much attention, perhaps more than he deserves in terms of the real effect those baserunning gaffes have on wins and losses. To me the far more important stat is that he leads the team in dingers but is 6th in rbi's and only 2 ahead of Bogaerts in 7th place. Pedroia with 15 fewer dingers and 30 fewer games has more rbi's than HanRam. Last year his OPS of .866 was 100 points higher and he had 111 rbi's to 55 right now with 20 games left. This year HanRam's OPs with no one on base is .863. With runners on, with RISP, and with the bases loaded, his OPS's are all of a piece--in the low .600's. That is where he is killing us. To me the baserunning gaffes are painful but nevertheless a sideshow to the very real failure of HanRam this season--especially in our first year without Ortiz.

Me too.

I thought that was Kimmi's point--that aggressive baserunning has been a net plus. She didn't say that? Also, consider last night's game. Nunez and Betts were 2/2 stealing bases, with Betts going to 3b on a bad throw. But what got everybody excited? HanRam running into another out (at a time when the game was completely out of reach of the Rays). In other words, we generally prefer to focus on the blunders because they reveal our presumed soft underbelly-- "bad fundamentals."

Honestly, I think blunders are in the eye of the beholder. As for the study, you seem best positioned--you tape games, you study them. To make your task easier, consider just looking at 1 run losses, certainly not more than 2 run losses. In 142 games so far, the Sox have 21 losses by 1 or 2 runs--piece of cake. Based on Kimmi's numbers about Sox baserunning and how overall it is a plus, consider throwing out all of those blunders. That leaves errors, of which the Sox have a bunch, and those become more interesting when you compare the Sox to the Guardians, who have committed the fewest in the AL this year, 66. We've made 91. Bogie has the most with 16, but the next most is 7, which tells me Bogie has hurt us, but that is not a surprise. The Guardians have given up 31 unearned runs and the Sox 53--pretty significant in my eyes. Here's a couple more numbers that frankly stunned me. The Sox and Guardians have the two best ERA's in the AL--good for us. However, the Sox pitching (and defense) have given up 584 runs and the Guardians pitching and defense 513 runs. That's a big difference. Indeed, the Yankees are right up there with us despite a decent ERA. The Guardians vaunted hitting this year actually ranks 4th in the AL in runs scored behind Houston, NY, and Texas. Those 513 runs against, on the other hand, are not only the best in the AL but buy a big margin--our 584 is actually second lowest (second best) in the AL. To me the inescapable conclusion is that the Guardians have far and away the best overall defense--pitching and fielding--in the AL. Left out, of course, are the mental errors or blunders that don't get into the box scores, and I think those loom large in your view of things. This is especially true because you have said some errors, maybe most of them, are inevitable. Still, I've just boiled this down to 21 games, which is not a bad place to start.