Maxbialystock

Whew. Great throw by Leon and better tag by Bogie. And Devers actually got the easy out.

All Porcello seems able to do now is throw that stupid 91 mph fastball.

Was Porcello a DD acquisition with that hefty contract?

Devers continues to play like a 20 year old over sliding 2b when he could see the throw and the base in his field of view.

The big difference between the experienced Porcello and the 23 year old Romano is the latter has figured out how to keep the ball low in the zone and Porcello simply prefers to keep all pitches up in the zone. And neither the pitching coach nor the manager seems able to change him.

first inning suggests you are over confident.

A nice reminder we are in a NL ballpark without our DH. The Reds have been fine without one all year long--hitting wise. NL pitchers and catchers are always aware of that "free out" down there at the bottom. Porcello/Vazquez may or may not be. Porcello looked pretty darn good is last time out, plus our bullpen is rested. Pitching advantage to us. I'm not sure our hitting will find Romano a pushover given that he just went 8 shutout innings against the Pirates six days ago. I think those are in fact our 8 best bats right now and the order seems fine. But .. . The Reds are 5-5 in their last ten and 39-39 at home this year. They only stink on the road. The good news is the Jays are also 5-5 in their last 10 and are 40-38 at home--vs. the Yankees tonight. Before the Orioles series I figured we and the Yankees would both go 2-1, but in fact both went 3-0. Good for us. Against the Red we are going with Porcello, ERod, and Fister, so I will be fine once again with 2-1 and hope the Jays can take one from the Yankees.

espn shows him 8th in MLB. Plus he's probably the youngest and is the only one who plays half his games in front of the green monster, which simultaneously limits his range factor and encourages misplays of caroms of the wall.

Why? An 85 game winner has a winning percentage of 52% and 96 game winner 59%. In a five game series between those teams the outcome is statistically pretty much of a toss-up.

Pitching is good, but not great. Hitting is too easily shut down. I said lose the ALDS but still hold out hope that we have played all three likely opponents--Guardians, Astros, and Yankees--and fared OK this season. Yankees killed us before the ASG but not after. Thus I have no problem with anything saying we could get to the WS.

Good points. I personally want my first four batters to include four of the following: Bogie, Beni, Betts, Pedey, and Nunez. If OldTimer is right and HanRam is fixed (see last night),maybe he can bat 4th. Remember, I also like the idea of a distributed lineup--good bats spread throughout--because of your other point that this season the OPS's have coalesced around .750 and even though Betts and Beni are at .798 and .791. Thus I also like Devers and JBJ in the bottom 3d.

You're probably right. Holt's OWAR in 55 games is a horrible -0.6, but he can back up the infield, including 1b, and the outfield. Davis is the pinchrunner and occasional OF. Nunez is an infielder or a DH and one of our better bats.

Very nicely done. Great on Hanley--I had no idea. Too hard to pick best 3 of 7 now.

Current OWAR's (and games played): Betts 3.1 (147) Bogaerts 2.8 (139) JBJ 2.4 (124) Beni 2.0 (142) Pedey 1.8 (100) Vazquez 1.5 (91) Devers 1.3 (48) Nunez 1.2 (37) Moreland .8 (140) Travis 0.0 (28) Ramirez -.1 (125) Leon -.2 (81) Holt -.6 (55) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (Farrell, please note) Worth noting that Betts overall WAR jumps to 6.1, JBJ's to 3.3, Beni's to 2.6, Moreland's to 1.5. But Vazque's overall WAR drops to 1.1 and Bogie's to 1.6 and Devers's to .8.

Mostly pitching, but both in the sense that, while the Guardians pitching has given up 505 earned runs to our second best 560, they also only given up 33 earned runs to our 56. So, whatever range, etc the Guardians defense has or doesn't have, they at least don't give up a lot of unearned runs. moonslav has in the past written a lot about the importance of the defense for the pitching--they can't literally save runs. Thus Tuesday night JBJ saved 1 run with the grab over the wall,fence and Beni saved another with the great throw to nail a speedy Machado from scoring from 2b on a 2 out single. I'm not talking about that kind of defense, only the kind that doesn't commit errors or passed balls, etc.--or at least not the kind that lead to unearned runs. I would say our outfield defense is as good as any, but our infield overall is probably subpar. Catching is par or better I think.

The Guardians are 9-1 in their last 10, the Yankees 8-2, the Sox 7-3, and the Astros 7-3. Those are the likely ALDS teams and all seem to be playing well right now. The Guardians have by far the best defense (runs against), then us, then the Yankees, then, comfortably last, the Astros. Astros lead in offense (runs for),but close behind are the Yankees, the the Guardians, then us.

Moreland out for Travis with a lefty starter, but of course he can get back in if a righty shows up. HanRam at DH, probably right. And no Devers--Marrero instead. Hmmm. Pedey back at 2b and no Holt.

That's the real point about tonight. Yes,we definitely want/need the win, but more than that we need Sale to be Sale again.

I guess I misread what you wrote: "but fielding grounds balls and throws--there is little difference." Plus you said Moreland keeps getting in Pedroia's way which presumably HanRam doesn't do. Like you, I haven't seen the gold glove first baseman, but I have seen an acceptable one--about even on the DWAR scale. Plus this year we needed his bat as much or more as we needed his glove and arm and footwork at 1b--especially now that it's crunch time. Since August 1st Moreland has missed two games even though earlier he missed more games against lefty starters. The real problem--disagreement--must be that I simply ain't that picky about the defense or for that matter the base running.

You're both right. Yes, I was exaggerating. That is, I'm sure good comments were made on both plays when they were made. My point is that in last three pages we are looking at the game as whole, and in that context much is made of Devers error and Moreland's presumed misplay--that they could have cost us the game. Of course they did not. So then I jumped in with Beni and JBJ because they clearly, unmistakably each saved the game by himself. We don't get to the 11th inning without both of those plays. Also, as you have just said, the usual commentary on Beni is about all the mistakes he makes--most of which I am happy to overlook because I think his natural position is CF. Even last year, however, he made that stunning catch, I think in the Trop, over the left field wall. So me, I see the potential more than the faults, especially when he has been one of our two or three best bats when we badly needed them and this is his rookie season.

You like HanRam over Moreland? Fine. You can have him. This year I'll take Moreland every day and twice on Sunday and especially at 1B. Your observations are fine, but the numbers say I'm right. Moreland has had the bigger bat this year, which was supposed to be HanRam's mission. Instead, he has compensated by being too aggressive on the basepaths.

I am one of those saying, "show me," but I have also invited anyone to go to a specific game and point out something egregious that cost that game. Egregious is the key word because errors are part of the game therefore not normally egregious. As for the wild pitch--I agree. It cost the game, but it was also not egregious--not something boneheaded or weak fundamentals or whatever. Had that Oriole scored after Devers' error, it would at least have cost the win if not the game. But it too was not egregious. Devers is mostly in the lineup to hit and he had 2 of our 6 last night. Speaking of egregious, Beni regularly gets cited on talksox for not playing the wall right or for making a bad throw or whatever. What a dummy--all these years and he still can't play the outfield with all that speed. Naturally, since we prefer the blame game, nobody is saying, "wow, what a great throw after having to come in quickly on the grounder single to LF to nail Machado, no slowpoke, trying to score from 2d with two outs. Beni saved this game!" Nope. That was never said. Heck, I'm not even sure anyone said JBJ saved the game with that grab over the fence/wall. Instead, we dwell on a bad throw and, just as bad, failure by our experienced firstbaseman to catch or block a throw on the bounce he had to stretch for. If you watched closely as I did, last night was a semi-miraculous win when Pom did get hit now and then and did have men on base, but still went 6.1 scoreless innings (a lot for him) and when the bullpen was lights out again for 4.2 innings and five--count 'em)--different relievers and when we were 0 for 4 with RISP and finally got a very lucky run in the 11th when Brach fell apart and Showalter left him in. We won despite Gausman having a great night, going 8 and giving up nothing and because the outfield made two terrific plays to prevent two different runs by the Orioles. So, me, I'm just happy with that and frankly don't care what Devers or Moreland did when nobody scored and Barnes was up to the challenge (for a change).

Good year, no question. Good acquisition. But am I the only one on edge with every batter he faces and all those pitches he throws each inning? The knuckle curve is good, but he sometimes leaves it up. The so-so fastball works because he spots it well and picks the right times to throw it (in conjunction with the catcher of course). Last night I saw a graphic that said, season to date, about 90% of his pitches are one or the other--fast ball or knuckle curve. After one inning, I don't remember which, I checked the location of every pitch for every batter, and it was clear to me he has gotten pretty good at working those corners while also moving the location around and alternating those two pitches.

Among regular ("qualified") MLB first basemen this year, his DWAR is well above average.

I don't have a replay, but saw the replays during the game and disagree. Moreland has to make a split second decision on whether to block the throw or to keep his foot on the bag and stretch for it. He wanted the out and no doubt felt he could field it on the hop. As for what happened, I just trust that a first baseman with his experience had the glove in the right place but of course could not be certain of the bounce. I also think it's a tad strange to blame this on Moreland when Devers was the one the official scorer charged with the error. Let's not forget that Devers had abundant time on that throw, so he is the one that made that play close and the decision on whether to block or get the out had to be made.