Maxbialystock

The interesting thing about this discussion is that we are having it. The vast majority of talksoxers this season expected the Sox to have a losing record. I was definitely one of them. But you gotta play the games, and statistically--which very few talksoxers, including you (I think), realize--there are no big gaps between/among teams, except the 2 or 3 at the top. Try this on for size. Figure a target of 90 wins to get into the playoffs. That's a winning percentage of .556. The Sox are currently 24-20, winning percentage of .545. If they had won just one more game and were 25-19, they would be at .568, which would translate to 92 wins. As it is, .545 becomes 88 wins in a 162 game season. Last year in the American League the wild card teams won 92 games (Toronto), 86 games (Tampa), and 90 games (Seattle). In 2021 the AL wild card teams were Boston with 92 wins and NYY with 92 wins.

I'm sorry but the idea that "instincts" are genetic and therefore cannot be improved upon is just complete and utter horsehockey. Human beings are born with the capacity to read and write, but absolutely none of us can do it without some coaching/teaching. Everything we do that seems instinctual can be improved upon or, if not there at all, compensated for because the human brain is nothing if not incredibly adaptive. As for baseball players, is everyone on this board unaware that the Rays have a terrific system for not only discovering baseball talent, but also for improving it? On the other hand, moonslav has just pointed out that the Red Sox have historically--going back at least 24 years to 1999 if not further--been almost completely incapable of finding and developing good pitchers. We all know that JBJ had a terrific ability to anticipate where a ball was going, but we don't know how much of that was purely instinctual--it was in his genes--and how much was the result of a lot of practice and thought and--heaven forbid--FREAKING COACHING. Ted Williams was a great natural hitter--great eyesight and reflexes--but he was also a student of hitting and practiced it all the time. As for Duran, he's already fast. A scouting report says he has over-relied on his speed. However, the same report says he also has a terrific work ethic and should be able to improve his routes and be an average outfielder.

It was a stunning comment to me because we rarely read that coaches actually fixed something and I never heard of Kyle Hudson. There is no way, no how "and very credible" can be interpreted as sarcasm.

I like your last sentence. However, I found this interesting stat on espn: Pivetta's OPS-against is .970 the first time through a lineup.

Both points good. Interesting that right now Sale, Paxton, and Jansen all came from outside--along with Kluber, Pivetta, Whitlock, Schreiber, and Martin. Bello came from inside, and I'm not sure about Houck, Crawford, Winck, etc.

Are you kidding? I said your comment was very credible.

Hard to argue against Texas and Houston. On the other hand, the Sox are very close to both the Jays and Yankees, and there is always the hope the Orioles will falter. Also, as you and others have pointed out, CB and JH might decided to acquire an arm or two. Plus one can certainly hope that Duvall, Story, and Mondesi will actually contribute this season.

Isn't it possible that being more aggressive translates to trusting his instincts--by which I mean the brain's ability to calculate where a fly ball is going--more?

I'm left eye dominant and have no stereoscopic vision, but the brain adapts and finds ways to acquire some depth perception. So I've never had a problem shooting a basketball or tracking fly balls (in the outfield or at SS). But I always fail the stereoscopic vision test and, when playing basketball, have a problem seeing players to my right.

Stunning comment about Kyle Hudson coaching Duran on defense--and very credible.

Not really. MVP 78 is right. The Rays winning percentage is .727 and ours is .545, but we are only 8 games behind them because we are less than 1/3 into this season. Also, espn did an article about how the scheduling change this season. Teams in the same division only play each other 13 times instead of 19. So it's now clear how much better the AL East is than the other 5 divisions. Thus the Sox, dead last in the AL East, have the same winning percentage as the Twins, who lead the AL Central. A whole lot of baseball ahead of us. Right now moonslav's optimism seems justified. Thanks to Sale, Paxton, and Bello, the rotation looks almost decent, especially when Cora has 5 starters--Kluber, Houck, Crawford, Whitlock, and Pivetta (now in the bullpen)--to choose from for his last 2 starters. The bullpen also looks promising, but only if Jansen is still Jansen. And the "no name" lineup has hit incredibly well without Story and Duvall.

I think Sale is the ace. But Paxton looks pretty good, and so does Bello, even when he gives up 5 freaking walks as he did last night. Backing those three up are Kluber, Houck, Crawford, Whitlock, and Pivetta (now apparently moved to the bullpen). Of those five, I prefer Crawford and Houck, but won't contest differing opinions. The point is the one you've made all along--that, while the team ERA is currently 5.00 and ranked 26th in MLB, there is discernible light at the end of the tunnel we've been in. And, contrary to my assertions a few days ago, the bullpen looks pretty decent too, assuming Jansen is OK. I think $16M for a closer is insane, but he already has 9 saves, more than any Sox pitcher had last season. As for the weak defense, I consider it to be a nuisance more than a calamity. The team is hitting and scoring runs with the third best OPS and the 3d most runs scored in MLB--and that, I would argue, is job one for the lineup.

Renfroe had a great arm and 16 outfield assists in 2021. He also had 12 errors. I don't know about anyone else, but I kind of like the outfield we have right now and don't miss Renfroe one bit. When Duvall returns, it's going to be crowded out there with a left fielder, a right fielder, a lefty center fielder and a right center fielder.

Moonslav is right. The Sox have almost always stunk at developing great pitchers, and in the John Henry era they've simply bought the ones they needed--specifically for all 4 of their WS seasons. For the best season of all, 2018, DD brought in Price, Sale, Kimbrel, and Eovaldi. But the very next season the Sox collapsed, so JH fired DD, brought in CB, and maybe swore a blood oath not to pay big bucks for another starter, However, Jansen gets $16M to be our closer.

Devers is 26. If he stays in shape, he can have maybe 10 good years. Of course tonight I was ready to shoot him for that triple pump throw of his that often leads to a bad throw.

It was a cheap shot which I regret. You also started a game thread (April 25) at my request. Kluber was starting. Dangerous duty, I said.

I liked JDM a lot, especially in 2018--but not so much lately. I wrote Turner off as too old and am delighted to admit my error. He hits and is extremely versatile and capable in the field.

Sox are 4 games over .500 for the season in part because you and your negativism have started just 3 game threads.

Bello with 5 BB's and 7 K's and 1 HBP. 106 pitches and counting. Got the 3d out in the 5th inning on pitch 107!!!! 1 run in 5 innings.

Ahem. Cough, cough. They scored 10 runs in game 1. They scored 4 in 5.1 innings off Pivetta yesterday. And they are ranked 14th in MLB in runs scored.

I think whether Bello goes 5 innings for the win will depend mostly on pitch count.

He's young and healthy and Cora will give him a chance to get out of the inning. Bottom of the 2d took forever, plus the umpire jacked Bello around on at least two missed calls in the top of the 2d.

Agree on 1st paragraph. As for the 2d on the rotation, I agree Sale, Bello, and Paxton look pretty good. As for the rest, Whitlock and Crawford are due back shortly--this month--and that gives Cora 8 starters: Sale, Paxton, Bello, Houck, Pivetta, Kluber, Whitlock, and Crawford. Right now Cora has a six man rotation, including Houck, Kluber, and Pivetta. Plus Whitlock and Crawford have started. I see pros and cons for starting Kluber, Pivetta, Houck, Whitlock, and/or Crawford and am happy Cora has to make those decisions. If pressed to choose, I'd go with the two best (among those five) WAR's, Crawford and Houck.

Very apt phrase by your former brother-in-law. The quirks are a challenge, but it overall the Green Monster simplifies the defense.

Too many empty hits by JDM and too many K's with RISP last year. Remember the games we watched? He was a godsend in 2018, the good bat who made all other Sox bats better. As for Bogey, still a good all around SS and good hitter. But he turns 31 this year, and that contract is for $280M. Think about those two numbers. If the Padres are wildly optimistic, they can assume Bogey has 8 good years left, which means they are really paying him $35M a year. Also, Bogey had 15 dingers last year vs. 23 in 2021, 11 in 2020 (in 50 games), and 33 in 2019.