Maxbialystock

Night and day between Bello's start tonight and Pivetta's last night.

So far the homeplate ump won't give Bello anything, but will give the corners to Lee. It also helps Lee that the Sox are swinging at everything.

Not ridiculous. Devers is not our best player right now. And he is even less effective against lefties--.749 OPS vs. .888.

Makes sense to me.

Love the punch line. Agree Pivetta should be guaranteed nothing. I count 8 starters including Crawford, and I agree with you that Kluber should continue if only because he's been almost decent in his last 3 starts. Agree Paxton should be given a shot. To do that, Cora can drop someone out--like Pivetta--or go with a 6 man rotation for awhile.

Meh. Should be good enough for 2b. The point is to get his bat (and range) into the lineup.

We need someone to start today's gamethread, and it can't be me: so far not very lucky this season; can't watch the game live because of insane blackout restrictions.

The Sox rarely emphasize defense over offense, but this year, I agree, has been worse than usual. Fascinatingly, the worst DWAR's are Yoshida's (-.5), Casas (-.5), Kike (-.3), McGuire (-.3), Turner (-.3), and Valdez (-.2). Duvall and Refsnyder both at -.1. Wong, Chang, Duran, and Devers all have plus DWAR's. I think we agreed the defense stunk about a month ago. So let's assume that Cora has decided to emphasize hitting over defense. If he has, the results have been surprisingly good. This team without Bogaerts is hitting better than last year's with Bogaerts, and by better I mean relative to all other MLB teams. The Sox are 3d in MLB in runs scored. Last year they were 9th.

I'm anti-Paxton, but I like your logic. Give him a shot. Right now, I'd probably drop Pivetta and keep Sale, Kluber, Houck, and Bello. But your approach could also work.

I agree completely he was hustling, but I also think that's what you need in a centerfielder--or any outfielder not named Ted Williams. When he returns, it's quite possible he will be encouraged to take fewer risks--or maybe he will be the DH outfielder.

He's no doubt better than all four, including Yoshida. But what distinguishes those four--Yoshida, Duvall, Verdugo, and now Duran--is that they are all hitting a lot better than Kike. The Sox rarely prefer a good glove over a good bat.

Great numbers!!! Well done. I'd take him too except for one tiny, insignificant data point. Duvall has played all of 8 games this season. In ten seasons he has averaged 84 games per season--and my guess is we will be lucky to get 84 games from him this season. Given how he broke his wrist in April, I'm guessing Cora won't put him back in the outfield. Too risky.

I happen to think ERA is a tad lenient on pitchers because, as I said, one single error can lead to 4 or 5 unearned runs, and to me the pitcher should bear some responsibility for some of those runs. The principle of unearned runs is a good one, but at some point the pitcher should be charged with those "extra" (my term, not MLB's) unearned runs. Also, nobody penalizes a pitcher who benefits from a great defensive play--it's still just an out that the pitcher gets full credit for in terms of ERA, etc. Same goes for line drives hit really, really hard but go straight to an outfielder who doesn't have to move. On the scorecard, it's just another out caused by solid pitching. What has made it harder for pitchers this season is getting rid of those radical shifts with three infielders on either side of 2b--but to me that change was long overdue.

Duvall is 34, hasn't played a full season since 2017, has played all of 8 games this season, and is hoping to recover from a broken wrist by when? June? His OPS for 8 games is a dazzling 1.544, but his OPS for 838 games (in ten seasons) is .764. Duran is 8 years younger and just may have figured out how to hit--OPS .991 in 21 games this season. His DWAR so far this season is +0.3 even with the weak arm (1 outfield assist). He has the 2d best WAR (+1.3) on the Sox and is faster and healthier than Duvall.

Mondesi was with KC for 7 seasons, two of them (2018 and 2019) pretty good. This is the 4th season since 2019, and he seems to be going in the wrong direction, especially with his health (currently his knee).

Frankly, I don't like "eliminating factors out of the pitcher's control," and I'll tell you why. The ERA rule applies to all runs scored after what should have been the third out. And it makes no difference if the pitcher gives up 4 dingers in a row after what should have been, say, a caught third out popup. And let me take that one step further. While I do support the concept of "earned runs" to a degree, I also think much more of a pitcher who gets guys out after there was an error committed. In the same way, I think it's cool when the pitcher acknowledges a great defensive play that prevents a hit and/or run.

Frankly, I've pretty much had it with Kike, and it's not hard to see why. He stinks in the infield, and the Sox have four much better hitting outfielders in Yoshida, Duran, Duvall, and Verdugo. So scratch Kike. The best fielding outfield is probably Duran, Duvall, and Dugo, but I'm fine with Yoshida out there in LF, especially at Fenway. Not much range and not much arm, but adequate. Devers is fine at 3b. I want the best hitter at 1b--Turner or Casas. SS and 2B are the problem, and my preference right now would be Chang at SS and Story at 2b. Is Mondesi the hot prospect expected to take over at SS? If so, I can wait on him because, if they can stay healthy, I'm fine with Chang and Story. With Kike and/or Arroyo lurking in the background. I'm also fine with Wong/McGuire catching.

I can't remember whether Duvall has an arm. We know Duran doesn't. However, to date Duran's DWAR is +0.4 and Duvall's is -0.1.

Sox were 10-7 in games in which Chang played (usually SS). His DWAR is +0.4.

Agree on that last point. However, it is a truism that all Sox position players are symbolized with bats, not gloves/arms. As I have already said way too many times, whenever the Sox accidentally pick up a good fielding shortstop, they quickly find a way to get rid of him--unless he's a really good hitter. Bogaerts fit the Sox profile--good bat, ok glove/arm--perfectly for 8 straight seasons. Jose Iglesias, a brilliant fielding SS, did not, and was quickly traded away. Same deal earlier with Alex Gonzalez. I hasten to add that emphasizing hitting over fielding has by and large worked for the Sox--at least in the JH era.

I don't know how WAR or fWAR is calculated, but I have no quarrel with those fWAR numbers. Sale has 3 quality starts so far, and the rest of the rotation (Houck, Kluber, Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, and Whitlock) has 4. I think Sale needs to do a better job of staying focused and calm, but he is this team's ace. Houck is the big surprise to me.

His career ERA is 5.07, and this year so far it's 6.23. Apropos of what we saw last night, try these stats on for size: first time he faces the batting order, their OPS is 1.026; second time it's .789; and third time it's .634.

I'm very pro-Wong and kind of anti-McGuire, but I'm not crazy. Overall, I've pretty happy to have two decent catchers: one bats righty, the other lefty; one is better defensively, the other (we think) is better offensively. On the other hand, Wong's WAR is +1.2, and McGuire's is -0.1. So it does make sense to give Wong more innings/games behind the plate.

You are either a super fan or a candidate for sainthood. I too could not watch it live, which was especially exasperating because it was on TBS (as well as mlb.com, etc), and the TBS station was literally blacked out for me. The presumption behind this treatment is that, instead of watching the game from home, I will drive 8 hours to Atlanta to see it and then drive 8 hours back. Madness, madness. Anyway, I had to watch the first inning to see how the wheels came off. And, frankly, I didn't think Pivetta looked all that bad. Leadoff single was against a good hitter with the count 3-2. Then came that first pitch dinger, righty vs. lefty on a curve that was in the middle of the zone. However, it wasn't a terrible curve and it was the first pitch--but the Atlanta hitter just got all of it. The walk that followed was also on a 3-2 count, so it wasn't like Pivetta was completely wild. Then the HBP in which the Atlanta batter "took" the hit by barely moving back and getting it in the shoulder. Sox hitters rarely do that. When you throw inside to Sox hitters, they jump 6 feet in the air, 6 feet backward, or throw themselves on the ground to avoid getting HBP'd. To Sox hitters an inside pitch is like a rattlesnake with triple-power venom. Next came the K of Rosario for the first freaking out of the inning. Then came the WP on a ball that hit the ground behind the plate, so my no doubt unfair take is that McGuire could have done a better job. Anyway, that put runners on 2d and 3d with one out, so Cora--the score is still just 2-0--brings the infield in to prevent the guy on 3d from scoring on a grounder. Of course the grounder gets through for a single and run #3, plus now another runner on 3b with just 1 out. With the infielders now at double play depth, a grounder to Devers at 3b brings home the 4th run with the ground out (and no GIDP). Finally the fly out for #3, and Pivetta has thrown 31 pitches in the first inning. The Braves did not blow him away. They hit just the one dinger on a curve ball, and everything else was singles, HBP, walk, WP, etc, etc. They bled him to death. Statistically, however, Pivetta's WAR dropped from +0.2 to -0.2, which puts him in a tie with Chris Sale. The only Sox starter with a plus WAR is Houck with +0.3.

If there is a game in which errors should be tolerated, this one has to be it. In 3 innings Pivetta gave up 7 hits and 3 walks. Whoops, there goes another rubber tree plant! 7-1 Braves, courtesy of Mr. Pivetta.