Maxbialystock

As moonslav would say, predict the unpredictable. Just 5 innings and already an astounding game. 4 off Castillo in the 1st--astounding. Then 3 shutout innings by Castillo--no surprise because he's good. Then 3 more in the 5th, all of Castillo--astounding. Pivetta out for the 6th astounding, especially having given up 4 runs in the 4th. But he kept Seattle scoreless in the 5th by getting two freaking K's with a man on 3b. Now we get to see what shape the bullpen is in. They need to get 8 outs with what is currently a 3 run lead. Two weeks ago, a piece of cake. Tonight, let's see. Anyway, a shout out to moonslav who said, "expect the unexpected."

Hmmmmm.

You could well be right. But my guess is that Houck wants to be thrown in that briar patch--going back and forth between starting and relieving--if that's the only way to get to start.

Zowee!!! Tonight????? This I gotta see. However, if Pivetta gives away a bunch of runs early, I will not expect Cora to try to fix it with the bull pen--unless of course our hitters also go on a rampage.

What's that line (Richard Gere's) from the movie/musical Chicago? "Razzle-dazzle 'em." That's also how you get to be an MVP.

Thanks everyone for a good discussion. I'm afraid the actual game could be painful.

15th in runs scored is pretty good. They are also 1st in MLB in team ERA. That explains the 1 run last night and the danger tonight.

FWIW, the Mariners are ranked 15th in MLB in runs scored and 25th in team OPS.

Interesting. For now you see some value in keeping Pivetta in the rotation. I don't, but on the other hand he does have an OPS-against of 1.062 when he faces hitters for the first time. This suggests he would be even worse in the bullpen.

I think he has a decent eye, but I also think he needs to be more aggressive, which is what you are saying.

I'm sure you're right. But that doesn't mean I agree with Cora. I have, however, backed off blaming him for sending Jansen out to close Saturday's game after the debacle Friday night. Turns out Jansen was probably the best choice. Schreiber was not really available.

Would you start Bello tonight and Paxton tomorrow night?

Agree on Houck. I would also put Whitlock in the bullpen and maybe give Crawford a shot at the rotation.

I do not disagree with your perspective on near term vs. long term. What makes me nervous is that we have no idea how long it will take for the bullpen to recover. In addition, while I too have been impressed by recent starts by Sale, Paxton, and Bello, I'm not impressed with the latest from Kluber, Houck, and especially Pivetta. Plus we are a month or more from fixing the defensive issues. Nevertheless, you are right that the Sox can surprise us--especially the hitting.

Probably true. But I believe rather emphatically that Plan B is driven by the collapse of the bullpen which has put this team into a nosedive.

Nate's a fascinating case study. He can be very, very good--no question--and this year he's borderline great: 8 starts, 53 innings (almost 7 innings per start), and an ERA of 2.70. However, the Rangers are his 6th team, and the Sox had him the longest, 5 seasons (one of which was like 2 months--2016). His best season was 2021, with the Sox, when he started 32 games, pitched 195 innings, and had a WAR of 4.6 and an ERA of 3.75. So, if anyone knew his capabilities, it was us. This does not mean he won't continue to excel for the Rangers, but I do understand the Sox reluctance to re-sign Eovaldi.

I said the Sox team ERA is 27th in MLB, not 29th. On tonight's game thread I proposed starting Bello, not Pivetta, and tomorrow night starting Paxton, who will have 5 days rest by then. With the bullpen in desperate need of arms, time to move Pivetta. Did you know that Pivetta's OPS-against the first time he pitches to the opposing team's lineup is 1.062?

You think!!?? Good word because what you say is as good an explanation as any about Casas's hitting.

I'm looking at ESPN MLB team stats, and it says the Sox team ERA is 5.09, ranked 27th. St Louis is 4.46, ranked 20th. Cincinnati is 26th with an ERA of 5.01. I also went to MLB standings (where the Sox are 22-20). The Sox have given up 225 runs, which puts them 26th in that category. The White Sox, Royals, and Athletics have given up more runs.

Thanks. I had that impression but not the data.

Nope. I'd start Bello tonight and Paxton tomorrow night because both have had or will have had the requisite 5 days rest. Bello's last start was May 10th and Paxton's was May 12th. And I'd put Pivetta in the bullpen for long relief. I've said this elsewhere but it bears repeating. When Pivetta starts, his OPS against for the first time through the opposing lineup is 1.062, so maybe coming out of the bullpen would be good for him. In addition, right now the bullpen is absolutely desperate for arms and the rotation is not.

Meh. "In the moment" is way, way sweeter when your team shows they can win. And the nice thing about MLB--unique of all major professional sports in America--is that winning is anything over freaking .500. Like right now. But at this specific moment, with the Sox at 22-20, I feel like Denzel Washington in the movie Flight when the elevator assembly jackscrew breaks and they are in an uncontrolled dive. With the Sox that translates to no freaking bullpen and sending Reyes out to pitch the 9th against the Mariners. As moonslav says, the rotation looks promising. The hitting has been terrific--4th in MLB in runs scored. The defense stinks, but, frankly, the defense is always on the margin. Games are mostly won and lost via pitching and hitting. But your team is DOA--your elevator assembly jackscrew is broken--if your bullpen stinks like ours does.

I love being 22-20, way better than I expected. I agree the rotation now shows promise--especially Sale, Paxton, and Bello. My point is that in the near term this team is hugely vulnerable. Tonight, for example, Seattle should win easily. Bello could do better tomorrow night, but Seattle is going with a lefty and the Sox best hitters are mostly from the left side. Then comes a 9 game trip, May 16-24, to the West Coast against the Padres, Angels, and Diamondbacks, and I do not see the bullpen recovering before that road trip. Dumping Brasier was the right move, but in the near term it doesn't accomplish much because the rest of the bullpen is in disarray. The defense will remain under suspicion. And, while I like the promise of the rotation, these days the stats guys are telling managers to avoid having starters face a lineup a third time. In short, you cannot hope to win without a freaking bullpen. Sale pitched 8 innings and gave up 1 run--and the Jansen lost it in the 9th. There is also the possibility the hit parade might be losing a beat.

What plan B?

Exactly.