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Kimmi

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Everything posted by Kimmi

  1. Kimmi
    ^^This.
  2. Kimmi
    {Sigh......}
  3. Kimmi
    The breakdown of pitchers WAR is pretty similar year to year. That's fine if that's what your definition of a #1 and #2 pitcher are, but if that's the case, only about half the teams each year have a #1 or #2 guy. And if that's the case, then people should not be so alarmed that we do not have a #1 or a #2 guy.
  4. Kimmi
    They have stunk up to this point, but they haven't stunk as bad as their ERA reflects. I don't expect them to turn into a top rotation, but I do think they should be able to improve to middle of the pack.
  5. Kimmi
    Nobody is saying that Clay will magically turn into Kershaw (though we have seen stretches of brilliance from him). No one expected our rotation to be our strength. I'm not saying that. I'm saying that they will not be as bad as they have been over the first 25 games of the season. If their ERAs normalize towards their xFIPs, then they will be more like the staff that the FO expected. They should be able to keep the team in most games. The problem as I see it now is that the offense is not doing its job.
  6. Kimmi
    Somebody with some common sense.
  7. Kimmi
    Who ever thought there'd come a day when people were begging for JBJ to be in our line up?
  8. Kimmi
    Not in agreement with that at this time.
  9. Kimmi
    No one is saying that Clay has not stunk. Just saying that there is good reason to believe that he will improve, as will the rest of the staff. You are going all Fred on me again.
  10. Kimmi
    His xFIP this year is lower because his K rate is way up. I don't know what the reason for that is, but in the early going, an improved K rate is a good sign. Regardless, it is rare that pitchers underperform their xFIP by more than one run. It happens only about 4% of the time. In other words, 96% of pitchers are within one run of their xFIP one way or the other. Only about 10% of pitchers have an ERA off of their xFIP by more than .69. A difference between ERA and xFIP of 3 runs is unheard of. The biggest difference over a season in the last 10 years has been 1.83. So, even if you want to use Clay's career xFIP of 4.04, that is still 2 runs better than his ERA. Clay's ERA will get better. It should get better by a fairly significant amount. It is a well established FACT that xFIP and SIERA are better predictors of ERA than current ERA is.
  11. Kimmi
    There is no way Buchholz can continue underperformong his xFIP by 3 runs. That is unheard of. If you're talking about the Fangraphs article, did you see the graph with the red dot that represented Clay? His ERA-xFIP is waaaaayyyy out there.
  12. Kimmi
    He's been doing that a lot lately. He must be Dutchy.
  13. Kimmi
    Here's the thing about this rotation. They have looked bad, but their peripherals show that they have not been nearly as bad as their ERAs indicate, especially Clay. They will get better. It's almost impossible to sustain an underperformance of your xFIP by more than one run. Compare each starter's ERA to his xFIP: Clay ERA 6.03, xFIP 3.10 Kelly ERA 5.72 xFIP 3.27 Porcello ERA 4.38 xFIP 3.72 Miley ERA 7.15 xFIP 5.15 Masterson 5.18 xFIP 4.89 We should see significant improvement from Clay, Kelly, and Miley, and modest improvement from Porcello. They still won't be a great staff, but they will be better than what we've seen. They should be middle of the pack. The fact that they're all underperforming their peripherals is an enigma.
  14. Kimmi
    This is the absolute truth.
  15. Kimmi
    Well going by your chart, am I correct to assume that you classify pitchers the following way: 5+ WAR = Ace 4-5 WAR = #1 3-4 WAR = #2 2-3 WAR = #3 If that's the case, then last year there were 18 number 1 pitchers in MLB and 15 number 2 pitchers. That would mean that about half of the teams don't have either a number 1 or a number 2 guy in their rotations, but there are a whole lot of 3-5 pitchers. And that doesn't even make sense. If a pitcher is in the top 20% of all pitchers, he is a #1, next 20%, he's a number 2.
  16. Kimmi
    Ha! I don't know about pitching coach, but I could probably pitch or hit as well as some of our guys have.
  17. Kimmi
    Then my next question would be, what is your WAR requirement for a pitcher to be a #1? What about a #2?
  18. Kimmi
    First off, none of us knows the whole story. There may be something going on behind the scenes that we don't know about. That said, if this is simply a reactionary move due to the poor start, then no, I do not approve.
  19. Kimmi
    Simple question. How many #1 pitchers do you think there are in baseball today?
  20. Kimmi
    Your argument was that Ben was establishing a new market with his contract to Porcello. Clearly, he is not, regardless of what the AAV of the contract might be. Your "fact" of a $20 mil AAV is pointless when the number of years is not taken into consideration along with it. That's not surrender you're hearing on my part. That's victory.
  21. Kimmi
    FWIW, if there aren't any underlying reasons why Nieves was fired that we don't know about, I would agree with you that the FO is being reactionary with his firing. Not something that I am a fan of.
  22. Kimmi
    But your "facts" are pointless in this debate about Porcello's contract.
  23. Kimmi
    My understanding is that Barnes is coming up to join the pen.
  24. Kimmi
    If the offense were doing its job, this team, starting rotation included, would not look nearly as bad as it does. The recent numbers with RISP are horrendous. The rotation has been worse than what I think the FO thought it would be, but IMO, the offense has underperformed more than the rotation has. Remember, we were expecting to win a lot of 8-7 games. We have not seen this offense even be able to win 4-3 games for us.
  25. Kimmi
    A. No, but other #2 are getting 5 or 6 year deals in the $17/18 mil range, which is an equivalent market. B. In the past 3 years, Porcello has posted WAR values of 2.7, 2.8, and 2.7. I think that is a better gauge of where Porcello is in terms of moving forward than his career WAR is.
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