No, I did not ignore that his xFIP is a run below his career average. I stated that even if Clay regresses to his career xFIP, that is still a full 2 runs below his ERA. Also, no one said that Clay would be a top of the rotation starter. If he only improves to 4.5 ERA (think QS, 3 runs in 6 innings), that is pitching well enough to keep the team in the game, provided the offense wakes up. No, a 4.5 ERA is not great, but once again, this team was built to win 7-6 games, not 2-1 games.