Kimmi
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Everything posted by Kimmi
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Clutch vs. choke - do these numbers mean anything?
Kimmi replied to Bellhorn04's topic in Other Baseball
Bell, you are providing anecdotal evidence. You are always going to be able to find players who are seemingly clutch or seemingly chokers, but the data shows that there is no statistical significance to that data. There is very little or no correlation in clutch or choking statistics from season to season. -
As bad as things look for the Red Sox at the moment, I am so glad that Dombrowski is no longer our GM. I do have to admit that I was 100% wrong about La Russa being able to lead the White Sox. I thought he was a terrible choice, but the White Sox are rolling.
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Again, I am talking about once you get past the one game playoff.
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There is plenty, plenty of evidence that supports the playoffs being a crapshoot. I don't make statements such as this without having researched the topic. I have posted this stuff before. The biggest piece of evidence, IMO, is the fact that nothing about the regular season correlates very strongly with postseason wins. That is the very definition of crapshoot. I will grant you that with the latest addition of the wildcard playoff game, there might be changing data. But if I had to guess, I'd say there won't be. Posting data from 8 postseasons tells you nothing.
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Against the Orioles' AA lineup?
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Based off of 8 postseasons?
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But more often than not, you can't.
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One can always tell when the Yankees are playing a little better.
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It's a bad stretch, that's all. Very painful while we're going through it, but things will get better. I don't dare read the game threads right now. My mental health can't take it. LOL
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To me, the lack of offense right now is the bigger problem than our starting pitching. Our starting pitching is what it is. The offense has to be better than what it's been. Since the ASB, we have averaged 4 runs/game. In our last 10 games, with a 3-7 record, we've average 3.1 runs/game.
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The strongest correlation to postseason wins is regular season wins. The best teams do have a slight advantage in the postseason, which means the wildcard teams would have a slight disadvantage, emphasis being on the word 'slight'. I would even classify it as being very slight. The playoffs really are a crapshoot, especially in comparison to other sports.
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sss
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Yes, due to the extra playoff game, the wildcard teams initially have a lesser chance than the division winners. But once you get to the ALDS, it's pretty much a crapshoot. Obviously, the preference is to win the division.
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Stop.
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Exactly. As you have said many times, avoiding the tax line this year is not about this year, it's about the future implications of it.
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That's what I'm saying.
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No team should ever be taken lightly. The Tigers, with their MLB worst ranked offense, scored 22 runs against us in our last series with them. Our offense needs to get it going.
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Not so sure about that. I think that might be wishful thinking.
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It's not one that I would have predicted. Rizzo made a lot more sense, but I'm sure the FO explored that move thoroughly.
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I don't disagree. Again, we are technically in a rebuilding phase. You don't go all in when you're trying to rebuild.
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I think that staying under the cap was most definitely a priority, not only for Henry, but for Bloom as well. I am confident that Bloom looked into pretty much every possible scenario and did the best that he could, given his desire not hurt the future of this team. Perhaps he could have picked up a Heaney type pitcher. Would that be an improvement to what we already have? Right or wrong, I think the FO is banking on Sale. He may not be vintage Chris Sale, but he should be a strong improvement.
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Those pesky Rays are going to be tough. I don't know whether we will win the division or not, but we will stay in the running for the division. We will make the playoffs. Once there, I can't predict what will happen, only that we will have as good a chance as any other team.
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As do I. Since July 22, his batting line is horrendous (.114/.133/.159/.292), but that is also partially fueled by a .156 BABIP.
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Except for the statement about having natural clutch hitters, I fully endorse this post. Having a lot of LOBs in games is truly a good sign for a team, not a bad one. Hang in there people!
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The starters may be a little gassed. I am thinking with Sale and Houck on the team, Cora will find a way to give the starters more rest. That said, to me, while the pitching has not been great, the offense is what needs to get it going. The Sox scored 141 runs in June, but only 118 runs in July. At the same time, the pitching staff allowed 138 runs in June, but only 117 runs in July. The pitchers are doing what they do, pitching so-so most of the time but keeping the offense in the game. The offense has not been coming through.
