Kimmi
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Everything posted by Kimmi
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You, sir, are still my hero.
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Clark's double hopping over the fence is a prime example of the randomness that often overtakes skill in close games and short series. As you said, if not for the favorable bounce for us, it might have ended up differently.
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I liked the trade when it happened. It looks terrible in hindsight, but the value that we got out of it should have been much better than what we got, well worth trading Lackey for.
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Nats
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I'll have to make sure I DVR all of the remaining postseason games that I don't stay up for.
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I will stop with my 'silly' ideas now, because in the immortal words of Jack Nicholson, You can't handle the truth!!! ('You' being the collective you.)
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Home teams win approximately 54% of the games.
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No one has ever said that it makes no difference who a manager brings in as a reliever. The difference in win expectancy of a manager's decision before the events unfold is very small. It is on the actual relievers to get the job done. This statement is actually not as nearly far-fetched as you think it is. The important part of a manager's job takes place off the field.
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No one has ever said that home field advantage makes no difference. It just does not make as much of a difference in the playoffs as people think it does. My statements have stemmed from other people's criticism of Farrell not going all out to win HFA against Cleveland. Having his players healthy and rested and having his pitching lined up the way he wanted was more important than playing for HFA.
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No one has ever said that batting order makes no difference. It doesn't make nearly as much difference as people think it does. All this micro-tweaking of the line up is not necessary. Unless a manager is going to completely buck tradition and go with a very unconventional optimal line up, he is much better off going with a L-R-L-R order and/or leaving players where they feel the most comfortable.
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Aren't you the one who keeps saying that a team with our resources should always be competitive?
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If Dombrowski does his job correctly, the window for a World Championship should not close.
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It's not just an organizational philosophy. I think it's pretty much a baseball wide philosophy.
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That would be a big resounding NO. I don't want him for $100 mil even if he's not attached to a QO. I'd love to have him on my team, but signing him to a large contract at his age goes against every baseball fiber in my body.
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As I posted before, if it's a choice between having home field advantage or not having home field advantage, of course you would take the HFA. If it's a choice between having well rested players and having your rotation lined up or having home field advantage, you go with the former. HFA is not as important as people think it is. Also, the lack of HFA is not why we lost this series.
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Sounds like it was a great game, and I missed it.
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The genius may be oozing, but he's a genius nonetheless.
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I recall reading about the Nationals manager Williams using a reliever who was pretty bad (don't remember who that was) in a late and close game situation rather than his closer Storen. The difference in win expectancy in that decision was approximated at 0.1 runs. Though not quite accurate, I think you can think of that as 9 times out of 10, there would be no difference in the impact of the game's outcome between using the bad reliever or the good reliever. Of course, if that 1 time out of 10 where there is a difference occurs in a one game playoff, it's HUGE.
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I'm not saying that I prefer Price and Porcello over Lester and Lackey. I have criticized the FO often for the Lester fiasco. I'm just saying that the former should be able to match up fairly well with the latter. I don't put a whole lot of credence into the postseason pedigree thing. Though Price is trying his darnedest to prove me wrong.
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I don't disagree that Showalter should have used Britton. I also understand that the impact of a decision looms larger in a one game playoff then it does it does in aggregate over the course of the season. Still, any one decision made by a manager has a small mathematical impact on the outcome of the game in terms of win probability.
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Dombrowski knows that in game moves are not the most important aspect of a manager's job.
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Do you not think that Price and Porcello should have been able to match Lester and Lackey?
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Personally, I think the retirement tour is what fueled Papi to have such a great season, and also what fueled the Sox to the division title. Okay, maybe not the actual tour, but the fact that everyone knew this was Papi's last year.
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I will ask you the same question that I asked Georom. Why do you think that HFA made no difference to the Rangers?
