Kimmi
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Everything posted by Kimmi
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Well I'm not saying that non random factors do not exist. I'm saying that the hot hand does not exist. Even though non random factors account for some of the streak, the streak has no predictive ability, hence the statement that the hot hand does not exist.
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It's the same question you asked me before, when I said the factors would show up in the data, even if they were intangible factors. Not the specific factors, but the fact that there are factors besides randomness. There is no statistical difference between the data of actual player streaks and streaks that are randomly generated using the same player data. If the actual streaks were different than the random streaks, the data would show that.
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I agree. And I also think that if it means sending one of your relievers who has options to AAA for a while to keep more tickets, then you do it.
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We are going around in circles here. As I posted several pages ago, I know I'm not going to convince anyone otherwise. I also have posted more than once that I have difficulty convincing myself of the argument. It goes against human nature to accept that there might be no reason for the patterns that we see. But I do think baseball is far more random than people will accept it to be.
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That post says no such thing.
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Actually, Bill James and other stat geeks have quantified it, but you dismissed it as nonsense.
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A link I posted several pages ago explains it well. Bill James said that he is 100% sure that other factors are in play. He also stated that the other factors must be a very small %, otherwise they would show up statistically. He put randomness at 95 to 99% of the reason behind most streaks. Even with the 1 to 5% of streaks being other factors, the hot hand does not exist.
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Well on the first statement, I would have to disagree. The slump might become predictive if it goes on long enough and the player knowingly or unknowingly changes his approach. Otherwise, I don't think they have much predictive value. On your second statement, I do agree that Leon is due for regression. But his recent performance still has little predictive value in what Leon will do any any particular at bat. Also, regression does not mean that Leon will have a slump equal to his hot streak to 'balance out' his average. It means that he will likely hit more towards his career norms.
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Randomness is a very hard concept for human beings, myself included, to accept. The idea that something can happen without cause is a difficult concept to accept. But it happens. Not just in baseball, but in everyday life. It's easier to accept if you flipped a coin 10 times and it came up heads 10 times. It's much more difficult to accept when people are involved for obvious reasons, but it doesn't make the concept any less real. People search for reasons why things happen when oftentimes there is no reason. People even go so far as to not shave their beards or to wear their lucky gold thongs because that might be the reason why the streak is happening. It's human nature to want a reason.
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Well that was how I was interpreting streaks and hot and cold hands at the beginning of the discussion. I believe I posted that earlier. Those are the exact ones that I call random and hence my statement that hot hands and cold hands do not exist.
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OK fair enough. That was a black and white statement because my interpretation of hot hand or cold hand. Let me clarify. I don't believe that a hot hand exists. I believe that hot streaks are mostly due to randomness, even when a player is seemingly in the zone. I don't believe that slumps have any predictive value either, unless there is an identifiable reason for it, and that reason might be mental (child in the hospital).
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I don't believe that anyone ever said that streaks are a function only of randomness.
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You have me convinced. Oh wait, I was already convinced. How many times have we heard that baseball is a game of inches? Translation - Baseball is an extremely random sport. A batter can hit ground ball with the same exit velocity. In one case, the ground ball goes near the defender resulting in a double play. In another case, the ball is hit 5 feet to the right, gets past the defender, and runs score. That is randomness too.
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Of course baseball involves talent. And hard work. And the human factors. But I will say again, there is a lot more randomness to the game than most people are willing to accept.
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I'm not sure where the conflict is. I am much more inclined to believe that a cold streak could have predictive value provided that the cold streak is due to an identifiable reason like injury. If a player is injured, it makes sense that his offense might suffer. It also makes sense that if a cold streak becomes prolonged, a player will start pressing or fall into bad habits, thereby contributing further to the cold streak. When it comes to hot streaks, I believe they are largely random, with very little predictive value.
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The specific reason won't be identified, but there would be differences in the data between players' actual numbers and numbers that are randomly generated through simulations.
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Yes, I did and that's still my contention.
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If something other than randomness played a significant part in the streaks, even if it's a non-tangible reason, it would be something that could be picked out in the data.
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No one has ever said that all streaks are a function of randomness, at least not randomness alone.
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The Lackey trade ended up being bad for us, but I still contend that at the time, it was a good trade for us.
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Yeah, I understood your point, and I completely agree about ERA. And like you, I will probably continue to use it as well.
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I like ERA- better than both ERA and ERA+. Which stats you look at depends on exactly what it is you're trying to assess with in a pitcher. Again, the more you look at, the better the overall assessment will be.
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OK, 'serious trouble' may be a bit of an exaggeration, but I think my point stands. If ERod is out for any length of time, starting pitching depth will be a big concern.
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We, as a fan base, have unfortunately become entitled. Happy New Year to you and everyone here!
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Because Papi is a better hitter than most other hitters.
