Kimmi
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Everything posted by Kimmi
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I like your optimism Emp. According to our Pythagorean W-L last year, the Sox should have won 98 games, so I don't think 98 wins is unreasonable, at least on paper. I just think that 98 wins is difficult to reach no matter how good a team is, and our division always plays us tough. I would probably go more with 95-96 wins.
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No, I'm not talking specifically about keeping Abad. I'm talking about keeping as many relief pitchers as possible and seeing who sticks.
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I like this post.
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Exactly. I have no doubt that the posters here are very intelligent baseball people and that they know good defenders when they see them. I am not trying suggest otherwise. However, they can't possibly know who the best defender at 2B is unless they watch pretty much every MLB game.
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Swihart was put in difficult situations the past two years. He absolutely needs more games as a catcher. I like Leon too. I could be happy with any combination of 2 out of our 3 catchers being our major league tandem, but I really think Swihart needs to start in AAA to work on his development.
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Personally, I prefer a defensive oriented catcher over an offensive one, and really hope that Vazquez' offense will improve enough that he can be our starting catcher. I know that he did not show 'elite' defense last year, but I think he has the ability to be defensively elite, not just very good. That said, if Swihart does improve enough to be the overall better catcher, I think you have to go with him even if it means losing a bit defensively, and that is something that is hard for me to say.
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Weird Spellings on Common Names Chone Figgins Jhonny Peralta
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Or comically realistic.
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Welcome Bean!
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Having a weak pen might be all the more reason to send ERod down.
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I'm not sure exactly how they come up with 93 wins either, but they are still inputting data, and the projections will be updated a few times before the season starts. Like you, I think this year's team is a little better than last year's team, though I don't think they will get close to 103 wins. I'm guessing our run differential will be close to what it is this year, with our pitching improved but our offense slightly weakened. That's largely what drives W-L projections. Records in one run games are mostly due to chance. We may improve in that are next year, we may not.
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Good points made about Pomeranz. JMO, but I get the feeling that Dombrowski views and wants Pomeranz as a starter, not as a reliever. If I had to guess, I'd say ERod and Pom get the #4 and 5 spots, with Wright going to the pen. I'm not saying that I necessarily agree with that, but I think that's the way it's going to play out.
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Our pen as a separate unit might be weaker, but the ability of our starters to give the team a lot of quality innings makes the bullpen that much deeper and stronger. That said, I would still like to see us keep as many viable arms as we reasonably can.
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Solid post Hugh. I think a good case could be made for any 2 of ERod, Pomeranz, and Wright getting the last 2 rotation spots. It will work itself out somehow.
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I think our current team is overall a little better than last year's team. Our offense will not be quite as good, but our pitching and defense should be better. But yes, 93 wins is reasonable.
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You're exactly right. I have heard many people say that they prefer the eye test because UZR is too subjective. What??? The eyes will lie to you. Confirmation bias is part of human nature. Sabermetric statisticians have measures in place to offset this bias as much as possible.
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I like this post.
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Over the past two seasons, Swihart's development behind the plate has been disrupted due to necessity. He was once highly touted by scouts to become good enough defensively that he would be the better overall catcher between him and Vazquez. I think the Sox owe it to him and to themselves to give him ample time in AAA this season working strictly as a catcher so they can see whether he will be good enough behind the plate to warrant keeping him at that position.
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When it comes to the amount he is willing to spend, Sox fans really can't complain about Henry. He has shown his willingness to put a contending team on the field year in and year out. That said, he does not have an unlimited payroll, and it would be unwise for him to operate the Red Sox or any business in that manner. Encarnacion would have been another one of those luxuries that we really didn't need and really couldn't afford. As an aside, Ben Buchanan has become one of my favorite writers. I don't always agree with him, but he does a good job.
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Chaos reigns in baseball. I like it! I've always said that randomness reigns, but chaos is even better.
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Obviously we don't know how the season is going to play out, but on paper, we are a better team. If the team does not play up to expectations, we can't blame Dombrowski for that. He did his job as far as assembling a very good and improved team for this season. Heaven help us all when we fall off that cliff after 3 years though.
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It's not so much about control over ERod, though that could be part of the issue, but more about keeping control of as many quality players as possible for depth and flexibility. Again, I don't think it's a big issue now that Buchholz is gone, but $13 million salary relief aside, if I have a choice between having both Buchholz and Erod on the team with ERod starting in AAA, or losing Buchholz so that ERod does not have to be sent down, I'm going with the former.
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If our top 3 can stay healthy, our rotation will be tough to beat. Our offense was already the best in the league.
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Current Fangraphs projections for 2017 still have us as the AL favorites with 93 wins, 2 better than the Tribe at 91 wins. They have us a full 10 games better than our next closest AL East competitor, the dreaded Yankees at 83 wins. Before anyone gives me the "Projections don't mean anything" reply, I realize that these are to be taken with a grain of salt. I also realize that it's early and these projections will change. However, at this time, we are the best AL team on paper, which is all you can ask for going into the season.
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Just to set the record straight for anyone who might think otherwise, I am thrilled to have Sale on our team. I am very excited and optimistic about this year's team. (The Guardians don't scare me!) We are an improved team over what we had last year, even with the loss of Papi.
