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Kimmi

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Everything posted by Kimmi

  1. Kimmi
    Forgive my ignorance, but what is a WAPM?
  2. Kimmi
    You have every right to be excited about your team. If I were a Mariners fan, I'd be excited for this season. If I were a Yankees fan, I'd also be excited for this season. As a Red Sox fan, I am very excited for this season.
  3. Kimmi
    Even worse than that, according to Pythagoras, we should have won 98 games, which is what you should use as your starting point. Somehow, he currently has us a full 14 games worse than last season.
  4. Kimmi
    I will too! Maybe he is projecting our 2021 team.
  5. Kimmi
    I have been looking over his numbers in detail, and I'll be honest, I can't make any sense of his projections for the AL East either. He projects our position players to have a WAR of 26 and our pitching staff to have a WAR of 19 for a team total of 45 WAR. Add that to the 47-48 replacement level wins, and that puts us at 92-93 wins. Projecting team wins is not as simple as adding up all the WAR values, but it should give a decent approximation. Then he projects the Rays to have an aggregate WAR of 46, one more win than the Sox. I am missing something. All that said, Davenport is not a nut job, nor does he have his 'head up his ass'. I will withhold further judgment until his projections are updated right before the season.
  6. Kimmi
    This is what I was trying to say. It is possible that the decline in offense will merely be offset by the improvement in pitching, but I think we did increase the gap between us and the other teams in our division, which adds to our net improvement. OTOH, our Pythagorean W-L record says that we played like a 98 win team last year. I am projecting 95 wins this season. So maybe Harmony is right.
  7. Kimmi
    I don't disagree that we have a good bench. I'm not concerned about our bench. I am concerned about long term replacements should the team suffer any serious injuries. I don't think we really have any viable Plan B players, which I think was a problem in 2014. I don't think our bench players are going to cut it as everyday starters. There's a reason why they are bench players. It's likely that most other teams are in the same boat. I don't know. Perhaps it's something that we won't even have to worry about. I am only voicing it as my concern because I have no other concerns about this year's team. That's a great thing!
  8. Kimmi
    There is a stat for that. Fangraphs BsR, Baserunning Runs, tells you how many runs above league average a player provided in baserunning. Ortiz' BsR for 2016 was -9.9. Ortiz' baserunning cost his team one win, which is terrible. For some context, 0 is league average, -2 is classified as below average, -4 is classified as poor, and -6 is classified as awful. Ortiz was almost 4 runs below awful.
  9. Kimmi
    I agree that we will likely see regression from some of the players that you mentioned, along with less production from the DH spot. I also think it's possible, however, to see improvement out of the left field and 3rd base. I don't expect our offense to outscore our opponents by 100 runs or even by 50 runs. They might even fall to 5th in the league in scoring like the Blue Jays did, though I think that is very unlikely. OTOH, our pitching should be much improved. We were terrible in our 4th and 5th spots last year. The ability of our starters to pitch deep should help the overall quality of our pen. I think that adds up to a net improvement, though I don't think that, in and of itself, is the whole story. Some of our net improvement comes from the gains we made over the other teams in the division. While I don't think any of the teams will be pushovers, I do think that making improvements over them adds to our net improvement.
  10. Kimmi
    I like those guys as bench players or even platoon guys. As everyday starters? That causes me some concern, especially when we have little wiggle room to add replacements. Of course you're not going to be able to replace a Mookie Betts if he has a season ending injury early in the season, but it's the teams that can deal with that type of loss that often make it to the playoffs versus teams that are derailed by such a loss. I'm not losing any sleep over it and I don't think it's a grave weakness. As I said in response to the original poll question, I don't think the current team really has any weaknesses, but if I had to name one, it would be the overall depth.
  11. Kimmi
    Don't rain on our parade Harmony. Our offense outscored our closest AL competitor by 100 runs. Losing Ortiz will take a bit of a toll on our offense, but it's a toll that we can afford. Our rotation improved with the acquisition of Sale. Our pen will be fine. (Again, I'm not feeling the concern over it.) Our 3 year outlook is very bright. It was already quite bright before the offseason started.
  12. Kimmi
    Don't get me wrong, I am thrilled that we have Sale. I just don't think we needed him. I think we would have been favorites to win the division either way. As far as winning the division goes, I do believe the Sox are the favorites. But I caution anyone who thinks we are going to run away with the division or that it will be a walk in the park. It's baseball and things are never that easy, especially in our division.
  13. Kimmi
    I agree that they are wacky. None of the other divisions are that close. He currently has the Cubs winning their division by 20 games, with a run differential of +219. We'll see how his projections look as we get closer to the season. His projections are usually pretty good - as good as projections can be anyway. They usually at least make a lot more sense.
  14. Kimmi
    I have read that tickets for the 'jersey retirement' game are going for $2800 for front row seats and $180 for standing room only. Though I think that Papi is more than deserving of this honor, the bottom line is always about the money.
  15. Kimmi
    Just for fun, because I like looking at this kind of thing, here are Davenport's projected AL East standings as of today. The projected 84 wins for the Red Sox is a big head scratcher. He doesn't seem to like our pitching staff too much. AL East Won Lost Runs Runs A BOS 84 78 761 732 TOR 84 78 744 716 BAL 82 80 740 730 NYY 80 82 719 733 TBY 80 82 713 724
  16. Kimmi
    There is no doubt that our rotation, especially our top 3, should be a force. Personally, I thought our rotation was good enough, though lacking somewhat in depth, when we had Buchholz instead of Sale, so I'm not as quick to say that Sale more than makes up for the prospects that we lost. Time will tell.
  17. Kimmi
    I agree completely. Our bench is good. The day to day replacements won't be an issue. The potential problem arises if/when we have to fill a position long term due to injury or, heaven forbid, gross underperformance. I suppose Rutledge, Holt, or Hernandez could do a decent job, but I'm not feeling all warm and fuzzy about them being starting players for 2 months or more.
  18. Kimmi
    The Yankees have a really good farm system now. Cashman did a good job with that. And I wouldn't count them out from being competitive this year.
  19. Kimmi
    Post of the year!
  20. Kimmi
    What's not to like about Truck Day? Can't wait! Woohoo!
  21. Kimmi
    I sincerely thought the pitching staff would be good enough to compete. I didn't think they would be great. They weren't supposed to be great. They were supposed to be merely mediocre, and the offense and defense were supposed to hold them up. IMO, the offense let the team down in many games. That is not my preferred method for putting together a team, but really, it should have worked.
  22. Kimmi
    I say none of the above. IMO, the 2017 team really doesn't have an area of weakness, unless we are hit fairly hard by the injury bug. In which case, I guess I would have to say that overall depth would be a weakness, but that's pretty much the case with any team that is hit hard by injuries.
  23. Kimmi
    Reading about this makes me sick. What is wrong with people?
  24. Kimmi
    I guess the players are looking at teams where they can get a ST invite with a fair shot of actually making the team out of camp. Short of that, I agree that we should look like one of the better options.
  25. Kimmi
    Dombrowski deserves his share of the credit. He has added some very good players to our team and he has kept our young core intact. What I don't agree with is those that praise Dombrowski for getting us back into the playoffs while at the same time criticizing Ben for doing a terrible job. The team got back into the playoffs because of the team that Ben and Theo put together. Dombrowski has reaped the benefits of their work. Even the guys that Dombrowski added were only possible largely because of the prospects and cost-controlled players that were already in place.
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