Kimmi
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Everything posted by Kimmi
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Stanton's contract is absurd, regardless of the low (relatively) AAV. Any 10 year contract is absurd, IMO. It doesn't matter if the player is mid 20 when he signs the contract.
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It's not really about how much JBJ, Betts, or Kelly are worth what they get paid. IMO, they're all more than worth it. It's just the way the system works. I have no issue with Betts thinking he deserves more, but at the same time, I also have no issue with the team's $7.5 figure. It's a very fair offer for a 2nd year arb player, and a considerable raise over the $950,000 that he made last year.
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That is pretty cool. Let us know when he makes it to the bigs.
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I like the Astros more and more everyday. If I weren't a Red Sox fan, I would jump on the Stros bandwagon.
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It appears that you and I are the only ones who feel this is worth mentioning. Good for Cameron and the Padres. Very sad for Fangraphs fans. I will miss reading his articles.
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Ha ha. Nice!
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In case you weren't aware, this is a Red Sox board. We're allowed to be optimistic about our team.
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!!!
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Yes, it does.
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All arb eligible players were signed except for Mookie. He will be headed to an arbitration hearing.
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Returning to a career season? No. We are talking about regressing to the mean. Mookie's career slash line is .292/.351/.488. Last year, he hit .264/.344/.459. Mookie is likely to regress this year and hit closer to that career line. FTR, regression does not mean that if you flip a coin 100 times and you get 80 heads, that in the next 100 flips you will only get 20 heads to 'balance out' the 80 heads. It means that in the next 100 flips the number of heads that you get will be much closer to the expected number of 50.
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In a very simple and obvious example, let's say a .250 hitter hits .600 over a 10 game span. Is he going to continue hitting .600? No, he's going to hit closer to .250. That is regression. Which, BTW, is also the reason why the 'hot hand' does not exist.
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Sure, it's guesswork, but there's a difference in the levels of guesswork. Teams are hiring stat geeks left and right, which means that teams must believe that their guesswork gives them an advantage.
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Of course there are sometimes valid reasons why a player's performance falls off or improves, wherein regression would not apply. That goes without saying. The concept of regression as it applies to player performance is far from nonsense.
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And then there's flammable and inflammable meaning the same thing.
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I agree that the guys we currently have will improve upon last season. I would still like to sign JD, but if he's going to continue to insist on unrealistic contract terms, Dombrowski should just move on. I do not want this dragging out until spring training.
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Amen to that.
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It's possible, but I have a difficult time believing that the Red Sox do not have the best offer out there as far as money is concerned. If there is another team that has offered 6 years, then I hope Dombrowski doesn't try to top it. But by all accounts, that is what JD is waiting for - that 6th year. If it's just a matter of increasing the AAV on 5 years to top another team's offer, I think Dombrowski would have already done that, within reason.
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I agree that being ready by Opening Day is a bit optimistic, but this does give me reason to believe that he'll be back sooner than originally expected.
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I understand that, but I take issue with a player who would hold his suitors hostage going into spring training.
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WARNING - Mini stat lesson below: Many people associate the word 'regression' with negative direction. The reality is that regression can be negative or positive (bad or good), which is why I often use the term 'positive regression', to avoid such confusion, even though the word 'regression' by itself is sufficient. Regression, or regression to the mean, basically is the tendency of data to be closer to the average after an above or below average measurement. So, if a player has a career type year, he is likely to drop off the following year, or regress. Likewise, if a player has a sub-par year, he is likely to have a better year the following year, or regress. I think several of our hitters will regress this season, meaning that they will improve over what they did last season.
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I just posted in the other thread that I'm getting to the point where I'm ready to move on from him. JD doesn't seem like he's in any hurry to sign, willing to wait into ST. He doesn't seem very willing to budge on his unrealistic demands.
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Rob Bradford Verified account @bradfo 6m6 minutes ago Dustin Pedroia just told @Bradfo_Sho he is eyeing being ready for Opening Day. That's probably a bit unrealistic, but perhaps Pedroia will be back sooner than expected. I wouldn't count him out.
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I was just reading that JD is willing to wait into spring training to sign because he thinks he is worth 6 years @ $30 mil plus per year. His demands are still unrealistic, and it doesn't seem like he's willing to budge. That might just be posturing, but I am getting to the point where I'm ready to move on from him.
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As much as I am opposed to long term deals, I very much liked Pedroia's contract. Saying it was a 'steal' might be a bit much (Pedroia certainly did not get hosed in the deal), but IMO, it was a very good deal for the Sox. I would do that deal all over again in a heartbeat.
