Good question Bell, and good job posting it.
Fangraphs Depth Charts was not introduced until May of that year, so there are no standings projections. That said, none of Fangraphs' 31 staff members at that point picked the Sox for either the division or the wildcard.
BP (Pecota) had the Sox tying for 2nd in the division with the Rays, 6 games behind the Yankees.
Davenport had them finishing in 4th place with 85 wins, but with the Yankees, the Rays, and the Jays all with 86 wins.
Jonah Keri at Grantland had the Sox finishing in 4th ahead of only the Orioles.
So, it could be strongly argued that the Sox were not really considered a contender that season.
I concede that they outperformed their expectations and had better than their share of luck that year.