sk7326

Always better off having more. Coming down the stretch the salaries don't matter. It's sunk cost. Also, with Buchholz coming back (assuming), I could see doing a little 6-man rotation, especially since makeup dates and such can gobble up off days from here on out.

Just like in football - you can't catch everything. Now with the push for retroactive punishment of folks (with evidence that may or may not be great - and a lot of leaked testimony which is a significant violation of the entire agreement), it is clear baseball and the media have a serious fetish about this issue and trying to whitewash the past. I had no problem with Braun's suspension getting overturned. The agreement the union and players had gave the players due process - union were vigilant about protecting the player's rights here (who else was going to). But clearly he has a problem with this stuff, not letting an escape from the law sate him.

Single contracts no - but industry trends, probably. Upton's contract was not amazingly bad for what he is - he has been terrible since signing it, but quality CFs with pop don't grow on trees and as the sport has gotten better at measuring defense his skillset became more valuable. I mean Ryan Dempster was clearly a $12M pitcher and his contract was a steal when you consider how much the industry was paying for durable workhorses. BTW: also a big reason Lester will get paid this offseason - even in his current form, starters who never get hurt have a significant value that teams are paying good money for.

BJ Upton got 5/85. Ellsbury is a better player even if this is what he turns out. The homeruns have not been there, but the extra bases are fine, his on base has been good and he has been a factor on the bases. He also plays an elite CF. If this season were his benchmark year, that's a 20M dude, in a world where the money is flowing.

He did - sort of. He and Hoyer were co-GMs at the time of the deal.

WAR's win values are interesting - but really a global average/rule of thumb. It still depends on individual markets. For Tampa, the value of wins are really low. I am not sure that anybody can generate eyeballs/gate in that market - so Tampa has to stick with the college football route (continual development, some guys will leave). For Boston or New York, it's probably low to a point (not sure how much being a 70-80 win team moves the needle there either way) but can get very valuable quickly. For Pittsburgh, a good market that has not won in eons - the value of a playoff berth could be enormous.

Mauer is an interesting deal. Clearly he was identified and paid as a franchise player. He was the best catcher in the league by a long way before his injuries piled up (and that's always a huge risk with the position). His MVP was very much deserved and he was one of the best players in the league - but always with that "when healthy" caveat like Tulo. I think it makes sense for the Twins - they can't just let all of their players go to free agency and retain credibility with their fans.

If Price pitches the way he did last week, not much to debate. But it's hard for anybody to do that. Red Sox just need to be patient. For all the hand wringing about the starters - the pitching has actually been pretty good during this stretch. It could be better sure, but the Red Sox have been good enough to hang if their offense were able to scrap the way they normally do.

I've read 4-5 million per win is a going rate. There is a lot of money chasing less than amazing guys - the best guys are being locked up smartly. That said, marginal value of wins change vary widely by team. The marginal value of wins for the Sox I imagine is pretty low (at least until you get to wins 70+ or so).

Ellsbury is worth the money if he could repeat this year for the next 5-6. Chances are, he won't. His durability has not supported it, and if he cannot play CF the duration of the deal, his value goes down a ton.

Nobody is untouchable. If Boegarts could get Felix Hernandez, I'd be very very tempted. But that is the sort of thing you have to be looking at. Lee is an elite pitcher - Bradley would be an interesting proposition, closer call to me than you I suspect. Fortunately Red Sox have enough interesting depth to be able to make a deal without touching the upper crust.

Oh sure - at some point people can pick them badly. But the worst contracts involve the worst decisions. Some decisions can be defensible without working out - nobody can predict the future. The Howard contract was a bad idea at the time - he has been overrated his whole career. The Pujols contract, Angels were willing to eat the later years for a few more prime-ish years. That was a dicey decision, but not on the level of the Howard one.

Red Sox did not in Oakland - good pitching staff and arguably the best pitchers park in the AL. Their 4 losses after the break - Kuroda, Moore, Price, Tillman, 4 of the best pitchers in the AL. Caught them on bad days too. Sox could use a little more depth in the lineup - the pitching has actually not been too bad. Given the history of the "best team" winning the Series, just get in an figure it out then. Baseball is too weird a sport for a team to be truly a dead team walking. Even the biggest favorites are still not >50/50 to win it all. But yes a bit more pitching would help. That said, the team DOES do one of the things which is required to win it all - generate baserunners and create tough outs.

You are right, replacement level is very low. A .250/.300/.370 sort of guy with his glove is actually an above average starter. The problem is that until the first 2-3 months of this season, nothing in his resume supported that slash line as a long term outlook. The question is whether the first half of this season is a legitimate, bona fide, scouting related improvement - or whether it was just an insanely high BABIP (which it was) that was bound to regress while he actually did not really get better.

As far as the trade deadline goes, I expect pitching is the order of the day. Peavy is really the only starter who qualifies in any way as an "impact arm" - as long as the Phillies are not going to be realistic and put feelers out for Cliff Lee. Bullpen depth makes sense but I wouldn't pay much. It has been proven, your odds are just as good of shoring up the bullpen by signing Brian Wilson's corpse and bringing up Rubby De La Rosa or whomever. And besides, adding a 6+ inning a start guy will help there. From a position player perspective, I don't expect much - the big front office decision to me is whether they want to give Boegarts the wheel at 3B for the stretch run.

Maybe make it out of stale Yaz bread ...

Oh I don't think management is convinced at all. But you ride him as long as he performs. But his average was built on some crazy crazy luck and run counter to his performance at any other level of baseball. I hope he can hit well enough to justify carrying him (that threshold can be low) - and he has so far. He's not a guy the media say can't hit - he is a guy who has a rich history of not hitting. He has to show more to get to an Elvis Andrus level, let alone Aparicio.

Ben's done a nice job. Being Theo's right hand man is a good experience clearly - and the way the farm system has replenished is a good reflection on him. He has fallen a bit into the "overpay for relievers" fetish tradewise - but I suspect some of that comes from the WEEI-obsessed ownership. But his ability to take a management ordered salary dump and turn it into an acceptable baseball trade (the Dodgers deal) has to be admired. And the Beckett deal is easy to defend - flags fly forever, and because he lost his stuff the last 2 seasons does not take away his 2007 ALCS MVP. Also, if you are going to trade guys like Ramirez or Sanchez, a 25 year old controllable pitcher with #1 stuff and championship resume is the sort of guy that you trade for.

Worst contract in baseball is pretty clearly Ryan Howard's. When evaluating the contracts, you have to look at the decision at the time with limited information. Pujols the bet was that he could still hold good to great value for another 5 seasons. The dip he had shown his last season in Saint Louis has seemed to continue. But he was the best hitter in the game one season earlier - Angels with their money had reason to make that move. It's free agency, the winning bidder almost always has to overpay. BJ Upton's deal has to be tempered with understanding that the industry is drowning in cash. A 28 year old, plus center fielder, with power, a good approach and still some upside is probably worth that investment. He has obviously really struggled, but the Braves move made sense. He was a better long term bet than Michael Bourn, who might not be a playable regular if he loses a step. Victorino's contract is also a pretty shaky one if his defense drops at all - but only 2 seasons after this so that tempers it quite a bit.

Peavy has excellent strikeout and walk numbers, and got them 219 IP last year and has been averaging 6+ IP per start. He is pretty dependable. The contract is not great, but that NESN money might as well go somewhere. The record is not great - but friends don't let friends use pitcher wins for a measure of anything. He will be expensive, but the Red Sox DO have the prospect depth to put a solid package without giving up a Boegarts/Cecchini level prospect.

Flashes of potential. Good power, microscopic walk rate and struck out a ton. Pitchers realized they don't have to throw him strikes. This is not a sudden thing - this has been an issue throughout his minor league career too. A lot of his success was tied in a high BABIP - his approach is a real problem that he needs to fix. I am skeptical whether he really can - approach is often born not developed. His issues are exacerbated by whom he replaced - since Youk was this team's best hitter before his body started to fall apart.

The BABIP fairly tale is ending. He has not shown an ability to hit at any level ... that said, if he could hit for more than 2-3 months, he could be a good solid SS. Elvis Andrus has made a career out of it. That said Boegarts is on his heels ... if Iglesias cannot hit as a rudimentary level he becomes a non-starter.

It is not overreacting - and his ability to hit big league pitching and put together big league at-bats is very much an open question.. He also wasn't very good last year either. He had a couple of good stretches, but the pitch recognition is poor and has been a problem since his minor league days. That is really hard to overcome. Let's put it this way - superior pitch recognition is what has kept Drew as a .225 hitter from being a total zero offensively. Being as much of a hacker as Middlebrooks has shown can work if you have generational contact ability like Garciaparra did or Vlad Guerrero did. Middlebrooks doesn't square up that many balls.

It is a weird use of an asset. Delmonico has tools and approach from what I've read - but has had injury problems. Not a Top 100 prospect, but certainly someone with a pro possibility. You are trading that for 20 innings of value. This is why the prospect position for reliever trade is always so dicey. Even if Machado might be their future at 3B/SS, Delmonoco has more value as a commodity one would think.

Clearly, one underrates the value of #3 pitchers. The Sox down the stretch in 2011, and most of last year had a ton of trouble scrounging up #3 starters. A #3 starter (assuming we have the same definition of a #1 starter - there might be 10 of those in the league) can play a decade in the bigs and deliver 180-200 innings. If these guys can get to a #3 level, that'd be success. Frankly, Ranaudo and Barnes probably are looking at that sort of ceiling. Owens has a lot more, but he also is far away from the show and has not actually thrown a ton of strikes - his potential is all projection. Trey Ball is even more projection, but also not eligible to be traded except as a PTBNL. Webster has more probability - although his ceiling is debatable. For a ground ball pitcher he gave up a lot of homeruns in his show starts. But he definitely can be a useful starter. De La Rosa might have more ceiling. Sox could use another starter - but if you look at their 3-4 record since the break, they have scored a combined 3 runs in the 4 losses. The pitching has been relatively good, just have run into some buzz-saws. Kuroda, Moore, Price and Tillman are 4 of the best in the AL. Not a ton of shame in those losses.