sk7326

I think it depends - that part of the contract is rewritten. I tend not to think of them as no-trade so much as no-trade-for-free.

We lost a couple of heartbreakers to Tampa ... we can compete with them already. Shoring up righty bats could do just as much.

I doubt it will - different levels of discussion. If there is a panic, it'd be to move on Bud Norris. Lee is a completely different timber, and as much a move for 2014. It would be risky, and no one pitcher can increase world series odds that much - but Lee is an elite starter. Peavy has no impact on this. Also, the Red Sox pitching has been solid - they can afford to come out of this empty handed.

FWIW, https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/362284153036750848

If Bradley were not a CF, he'd be fine for this discussion (Lee) ... just not sure what the endgame is other than bringing a 30-year old Ells back if Bradley is gone.

Wilson had a knack for holding 2 run leads with the bases empty ...

Tough ask. Not because it's not fair (Bradley is reasonable), but because CFs in general are hard to find and can hurt future positioning (read: Ellsbury for too much $$ or Victorino faking it)

I suspect Norris is a guy whose price could tumble by tomorrow. Houston has one of the best scouting guys running their shop (Jeff Luhnow, former Cardinals assistant GM) - they are committed to trading anything not nailed down. Look at the Veras move - took an average reliever, gave him a coat of "proven closer" polish and dealt him to Detroit for a couple of prospects with some upside. Norris is not going to be around by the time they are good again, I expect that he could be had for a non-big 4 prospect (Bradley, Cecchini, Owens, Boegarts). I don't think Boegarts is in Lee talks - Phillies have to know this, and if Boegarts was a deal breaker there would be no rumors. I think any of the other Big 4 prospects and certainly the upper-middle class level guys (Webster, Middlebrooks, Merrero, Britton) are all discussion-worthy. Personally my "prospect order" as far as guys I don't want to deal is: Bradley (some modest major league performance already, hard to find CFs), Cecchini, Owens (always risk with any below AA pitcher that position players don't have) and then everybody else. Also, if I am dealing one of these guys in a package, I'd like Philly to - if they won't pick up salary - at least part with a prospect that the team can dream on (you know, not a Top 100 guy maybe but a guy with something that can project - like Owens basically before the blossomng).

Rosenthal piece advising Boegarts for Lee comparing it to HanRam for Beckett is fairly silly. Beckett was ten years younger. Lee's deal is much more questionable, even if you don't question that he will keep adding value (and I think he will). Personally IF Cecchini OR (not and) Owens were being discussed, I'd at least not hang up. Cecchini has a great future, but Lee is the sort of blue chipper that would make dealing him at least arguably worth it. Owens just has that risk that comes with ANY prospect pitcher who's not at AA yet - it's a gamble to let him go, it's a gamble to bet on his major league potential. Boegarts is clearly untouchable - a guy who is conquering AAA as a 20 year old is (barring injury) almost a sure thing as a quality big and perhaps much more. Yes prospects are all "risky", but like in high school, the guys who you expect huge things from are not kids who crush JV, but the 14 year old who can hang on the varsity. That is Boegarts, these guys rarely miss. Also, I consider him the Sox' best option for a righty bat down the stretch.

The callups are where it becomes interesting. The corner options on the trade market are not improvements over what they have (a non-healthy Aramis Ramirez isn't, and Michael Young surely isn't). If Napoli could play any position other than 1st (and clearly they are committed to him not pretending to catch), that could open some opportunities. Middlebrooks is the safe option here - he struggled earlier in the season but he has shown he can at least hit a big league mistake. The real question is whether the team is ready to give Boegarts the wheel for the stretch run - how thoroughly impressive he has been in AA/AAA at his age is a serious eye opener - he might be a .240 hitter the rest of this season at the big league level, but with his batting eye he will get on base enough to be at least as effective as Snyder or Holt, with a lot more upside.

Wainwright was their closer in 2006. Jeff Weaver and Jeff Suppan were playoff heroes!

This is baseball, a sport where an 83-79 team won a world series with a Red Sox castoff as MVP. IF this were a sport like football or basketball the "we'd have no chance" line resonates much more. Heck, the "better team" has lost the last three World Series and 5 of the last 6.

Well - 2007 his form (and health maybe) slipped a ton. Remember he was not on the playoff roster when we beat the Guardians. 2008 won the Cy Young, but then the Guardians as a team went off a cliff. And Grady Sizemore's body fell apart. By 2009 the Guardians were rebuilding and shipped him to the Phillies. He was a key cog in their getting to the WS before losing to that Yankee juggernaut. 2010 dealt to Seattle to make room for Roy Halladay 2011 Seattle stunk, dealt him to Texas, they dominated Yankees then he struggled a little in WS 2012 Signed with Phillies as a FA So realistically he has been moved a lot, but he has also been in a lot of rebuilding situations where he became a team's best trade asset (frankly, like now).

That NESN money ought to go somewhere. If the prospect price is not too bad - taking them both makes sense. Papelbon is a "proven closer" which is a useless position but one the sport has decided to live with. He has been effective this season, just a luxury position. Lee is old, but a really good bet to hold his performance - easy delivery, doesn't waste motion.

Indeed - him being a SS vs a 3B is the difference in being a Top 3 prospect or not. That said he might get too big to field the SS position, just physical development. If he can be adequate at SS he could be a SS. I advocate for 3B if they bring him up THIS season - it is where the job opening is. Could easily see Middlebrooks getting squeezed out - the approach is a problem without the absurd contact rates that others of that ilk have.

Well coaching has not been an issue so much as health. Sox pitching coaches have been good except for last year when the coaching staff was run by a bozo. Farrell hired a lower profile name than was out there probably because he could help set the program on that side of the ball. Farrell/Nieves have shown some promise in undoing some of Lester's May-June issues as well as helping Doubront harness his wildness (somewhat).

Tim's velocity drop has been truly alarming. No-no aside he has fallen far from his back to back Cy Young days. Lincecum could realistically not really be a serious rotation worthy starter in the next year or two. Lee is far less risky, even with advanced age.

It's a funny piece of game theory. Lee is actually not that unlikely to be worth the money - easy arm action, very efficient. But the Phillies are very unrealistic about their own position here. Lee is not going to draw that sort of offer (well, he shouldn't) ... even if he is a fringy #1/super #2 sort. Contract made sense at the time - veteran team, well within its championship window. Amaro did not account for the team getting old and hurt at the same time, and did not spend enough time trying to get younger.

No. I'd rather invest the money elsewhere and take a chance with Boegarts.

Didn't know this was an auction, you could be right. I am curious myself though I certainly think $20 is possible though unlikely - industry is getting a lot smarter at looking at the whole package here, and paying for the importance of the position. Basically Ells is better than Bourn and Upton, which are the two best comps. It might be a matter of hitting the market as a 30 year old vs a 28 year old.

I do agree, his durability history is a big problem. That said, the injuries were freakish. Him being 30 is a bigger issue. 2011 and 2013 have been his two best seasons by far - the latter is an elite CF, the former season was the best position player in baseball. Could someone pay him on the strength of this season - yes, and probably in the $15-18 range considering how much money is flowing in the sport and the general "winner's curse" associated with free agency. I would have hard time, and I think the Sox would be ok letting Bradley drive. Bradley, even with his cup of coffee struggles with the big club, has shown such an advanced approach at the plate, that he could be valuable while he figures out the rest of it.

He got it because he played a premium position well, and still young enough to get a little better. Ellsbury does not have the future growth thing going for him, but a lot better "present performance". Him getting to 10 homeruns would be nice, but the extra base hits aren't particularly lacking. Michael Bourn is another comp - he got $12M on the back of basically defense and speed and a career year at the plate though he did not get on base as frequently as Ellsbury has nor has he stolen bases as efficiently. Ellsbury looks quite good by comparison. BTW: I'd let him go, but his production this season would be something I'd be delighted with if Bradley could approximate it.

Note: "Nearly" untouchable. A half step behind the other prospects because of how much less predictable pitchers are in general. Results have definitely been coming around, I phrased that wrong. Control has not been great and still in Single-A. I wouldn't deal him without a really good guy coming back - but pitchers below AA are easier to talk than position players at AA and above.

A guy who gets on base at a high clip (with a better approach than he has shown in younger days), with good power (on a 30 double, 10 triple sort of pace) and delivers excellent performance at one of the two or three most important positions on the diamond? Without a doubt the industry is paying for that - if he were a LF, this is a totally different conversation.

Edes reporting Sox still very seriously kicking tires on Cliff Lee - which is just good business. Of course he is 35 so you don't bet the farm on him - you have to use your ability to take his contract as a carrot here. No way do you give up Boegarts, Bradley or Cecchini for him. Owens? I'd prefer not - but he is at least arguable (prospect ranking largely upside and projection based - he still has a quite a bit of actual development before the results match the stuff). But a couple of the Merrero-Barnes tier guys should be enough if Amaro gets realistic about this.